The quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday in New York, and we are guaranteed a new champion in both men’s and women’s singles. In the women’s draw, world No.1 Iga Swiatek is the only Major singles champ remaining. In the quarterfinals, she faces American No.1 Jessica Pegula.
On the men’s side, all of the remaining players are looking for their first Major in singles. Wednesday’s ATP quarterfinals feature two of the sport’s most charismatic young players, Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe, and two big-swinging gingers, Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev.
Karolina Pliskova (22) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (6) – 12:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
These are two of the WTA’s biggest ball strikers, and both already defeated other big ball strikers in the last round. Pliskova took out another loud Belarussian in Victoria Azarenka, while Sabalenka eliminated Danielle Collins. That was Pliskova’s third three-set win of this tournament, as she also survived tight encounters against Belinda Bencic and Magda Linette. Sabalenka seemed all but out of this tournament in the second round, before coming back from a set and 5-1 down to defeat Kaia Kanepi.
They have split four previous meetings, yet Pliskova claimed the last two. Most notably, Karolina was victorious 6-4 in the third over Aryna in one of the biggest matches of both players’ careers: the semifinals of last year’s Wimbledon. And just last month in the semis of Toronto, Pliskova prevailed in straights. Her superior serving prowess, and Sabalenka’s double fault issues, make Pliskova the favorite despite her recent 0-3 record in US Open quarterfinals. And while Karolina can be a bit too hard on herself at times, she has a much more subdued temperament than Aryna, who can become quite aggravated on court.
Andrey Rublev (9) vs. Frances Tiafoe (22) – Second on Arthur Ashe Stadium
This is a rematch from an electric five-setter at last year’s US Open, when Tiafoe upset Rublev in a match that ended at 2:14am. Ranked 50th in the world at the time, Frances has seen his ranking halved in the year since, and is coming off the biggest win of his life. On Monday afternoon, Tiafoe handed Rafael Nadal his only loss at a Major this season.
Six months after their meeting here a year ago, Rublev avenged that heartbreaking loss at Indian Wells with a straight-set victory. Andrey outlasted Denis Shapovalov in a fifth-set tiebreak two rounds ago, then easily dispatched of one of the ATP’s most consistent performers, Cam Norrie, in straight sets. Will Frances be able to emotionally recover from such a career milestone to reach his first Major semifinal just 48 hours later? Rublev is also vying for his first Slam semi, and this has been a huge stumbling block for Andrey, as he is 0-5 in Major quarterfinals. He had lost the first four of those quarterfinals in straight sets, before losing another heartbreaker three months ago at Roland Garros to Marin Cilic in a fifth-set tiebreak. That’s a lot of scar tissue for any player to overcome. And with a partisan New York crowd raucously behind the American, Tiafoe is a slight favorite to advance.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Jessica Pegula (8) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
This is a rematch from the same round at this year’s French Open, where Swiatek easily won 6-3, 6-2. They also met earlier this season in the semifinals of Miami, with Iga prevailing 6-2, 7-5. Their only other matchup occurred three years ago in Washington, with Pegula winning in three.
Jess has become one of the WTA’s most consistent performers. The 28-year-old has reached the quarterfinals at three of four Majors this year, as well as the quarters or better at four WTA 1000 events. Her losses this summer in Toronto and Cincinnati were far from bad ones, as they were at the hands of the eventual champions (Halep, Garcia). And as great as Swiatek has been in 2022, with a record of 54-7 and six titles, she is not fully comfortable on the fast hard courts in New York, or with the balls that are used at this tournament. Iga advanced to this quarterfinal despite some poor form, especially in the first half of her fourth round match against Jule Neimeier. And while Pegula is 0-3 in Slam quarterfinals, this feels like her moment to achieve a new career milestone and upset an uncomfortable world No.1.
Jannik Sinner (11) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Last on Arthur Ashe Stadium
These men have played three times within the last year. At November’s Paris Masters on an indoor hard court, Alcaraz was victorious after two tight sets. In the fourth round of Wimbledon in July on grass, Sinner prevailed in four sets. And in the Umag final on clay, Jannik won again in three sets. Now they’ll meet on an outdoor hard court, assuming possible showers don’t force the roof to be closed.
Both of these young men survived grueling five-setters on Monday night. Sinner came back from a break down in the fifth against Ilya Ivashka, while Alcaraz defeated Marin Cilic at 2:23am. That was an extremely late finish to recover from for Carlitos, though it will help that he won his first three rounds in straight sets. Meanwhile Sinner has now played two five-setters and a four-setter, so he’s encountered more hiccups than Alcaraz. And in front of a New York crowd that fell in love with Carlitos a year ago, Alcaraz should be favored to use their energy, as well as his speed and power, to become a Major semifinalist.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
