Rafael Nadal is now an undefeated 22-0 at Majors this season. While he is not contending for the calendar Grand Slam due to his withdrawal from the Wimbledon semifinals, Rafa is just four matches away from his third Major of the year, and his record-extending 23rd overall. But on Monday, he faces a confident and popular American in Frances Tiafoe.
Monday’s schedule features many highly-appealing fourth round contests. They include four other Major singles champions, as well as Australian Open finalist Danielle Collins and 19-year-old phenom Carlos Alcaraz.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Monday’s play begins at 11:00am local time.
Frances Tiafoe (22) vs. Rafael Nadal (2) – Second on Arthur Ashe Stadium
The only time Tiafoe advanced to the quarterfinals at a Major, three years ago in Australia, Nadal controlled proceedings 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. A few months later on clay in Madrid, Rafa again easily prevailed 6-3, 6-4. But in 2022, Frances feels he is now prepared to challenge Nadal. In speaking to the press after his thrilling third-round victory over Diego Schwartzman, Tiafoe said, “Now I believe I can beat him. I’m definitely going to come after him.” As great as Nadal has been this season, with a record of 38-4, he could be a bit vulnerable. Rafa has only played four matches in the past two months, and lost the opening set in his first two matches of this fortnight with some sloppy play. And while Nadal will have plenty of support amongst the 23,000 fans inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, the American crowd will be mostly pulling for Tiafoe, especially as he’s the underdog. So while it’s hard not to favor Rafa, a Frances upset would not be shocking. Tiafoe plays his best in front of energized crowds, and has been working hard for a moment like this.
Victoria Azarenka (26) vs. Karolina Pliskova (22) – Third on Louis Armstrong Stadium
This is only the second time this season Azarenka has won three matches in a row, with the other being the other hard court Major in Melbourne. But hard court Majors are her specialty, as she’s a five-time finalist as such events. Pliskova has reached two Slam finals of her own, including here in 2016, and seems to be peaking at this time. Karolina has now claimed eight of her last 10 matches, and pulled out a grueling three-set win over Belinda Bencic in the last round. She is playing to reach her fifth US Open quarterfinal out of the last seven years. Azarenka and Pliskova are 4-4 lifetime against each other, and they haven’t played in over three years. But on these fast courts, I give the slight edge to Pliskova and her powerful game.
Danielle Collins (19) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (6) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Speaking of powerful games, these are two of the sport’s hardest ball strikers, and fiercest competitors. Collins missed all of the hard court lead-up events before this tournament to rest an injury, and it paid off, as she’s not dropped a set through three rounds. And that includes two impressive victories over Naomi Osaka and Alize Cornet. Sabalenka has suffered from some severe double fault issues throughout the year, yet has still fought her way to some good results. Aryna was a semifinalist a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, where she lost to eventual champion Caroline Garcia. And she is 3-0 against Collins, which includes two matches at the US Open within the last four years. However, Danielle was also 0-3 against Osaka before their first round matchup. And the American’s current form is reminiscent of her run to the final this past January in Australia, when she was dictating play with her ferocious backhand. Her return game, combined with Sabalenka’s problematic serve, makes Collins the favorite to reach her fourth Major quarterfinal.
Marin Cilic (15) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Last on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Alcaraz has looked sharp in his first three matches, not dropping a set. Carlitos leads the ATP with 47 match wins, and with another victory on Monday, would become the youngest man to achieve back-to-back US Open quarterfinals in 70 years. Of course Cilic was the champion here eight years ago, and was a semifinalist three months ago in Paris. This is a rematch from a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, where Alcaraz was victorious in straight sets. He also defeated Marin earlier this year on another American hard court in Miami, while Marin got the best of Carlitos last year on clay in Estoril. But Alcaraz remains the favorite to earn his third straight victory over Cilic of the year on this surface and in this country.
Other Notable Matches on Monday:
Cameron Norrie (7) vs. Andrey Rublev (9) – This is an elite battle between two top 10 seeds. Norrie has advanced economically, having yet to drop a set. Rublev survived two five-setters in the first week, including a fifth-set tiebreak in the last round over Denis Shapovalov. They split two previous meetings, both on hard courts.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Jule Niemeier – Swiatek has dominated in her first three rounds, as she has for much of this year, allowing her opposition only 15 games across six sets. Niemeier was a surprise quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, as she had never won a main draw match at a Major prior to that fortnight. This first career meeting should be a lot of fun to watch given their contrasting styles.
Petra Kvitova (21) vs. Jessica Pegula (8) – Kvitova saved two match points against fellow two-time Slam champ Garbine Muguruza in an epic match on Saturday. Pegula is the third best WTA player of 2022, and is vying for her fourth quarterfinal out of the last eight Majors. Petra is 2-0 against Jess, which includes a match two years ago at this event.
Ilya Ivashka vs. Jannik Sinner (11) – Ivashka has matched his best result at a Slam with this fourth round appearance. Sinner has reached this stage at five consecutive Slams, and is looking for this third Slam quarterfinal of the year. This is another first-time encounter.
Monday’s full Order of Play is here.
