11 of the last 15 ATP Finals have been won by either Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic. However, both of the last two years saw first-time champions crowned. Will that trend continue in 2018? Federer got off to a rocky start on Sunday, dropping his opening match to Kei Nishikori in straight sets. But considering Djokovic’s results since July of this year, it will be a steep climb to the trophy for the rest of the field.
Sascha Zverev vs. Marin Cilic
Cilic won their first career head-to-head meeting three years ago in Washington, DC. But in the five times they’ve played since, Zverev has prevailed every time. That includes a round robin match last year at this tournament. In fact, Cilic has never performed well in his three previous appearances at the ATP Finals, winning only one of nine matches at the O2 in London. Meanwhile in Zverev’s ATP Finals debut last year, the victory over Cilic was his only one. Just as neither player has done well at this tournament, neither comes into this tournament with much momentum. Since his last title at Washington, DC in July, Sascha has not made it to another final, and is just 12-8 during that time. Same goes for Marin: no finals since his last title at Queen’s Club in June, with a record of 14-9. That includes choking away a match to Sam Querrey on home soil in the Davis Cup semifinals. Cilic has seemingly not mentally recovered from that loss, evidenced by his 3-4 record since. With that in mind, as well as their recent head-to-head, Zverev should be favored to get the win on Monday.
Head-to-head (Zverev leads 5-1)
Year | Event | Winner | Result | ||
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2018 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome Italy |
Alexander Zverev |
7613 75
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2017 | Nitto ATP Finals Great Britain |
Alexander Zverev |
64 36 64
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2017 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Madrid Spain |
Alexander Zverev |
673 63 64
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2016 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Shanghai China |
Alexander Zverev |
36 63 62
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2016 | Montpellier France |
Alexander Zverev |
764 761
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2015 | Washington DC, U.S.A. |
Marin Cilic |
75 763
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Novak Djokovic vs. John Isner

Djokovic is the top seed in London, thanks to his 31-2 during the second half of 2018. That includes four titles: two Majors and two Masters 1,000 events. Novak is looking to tie Federer with his sixth title at the ATP Finals. For John Isner, this is his first time qualifying for this tournament. While he only got in due to the withdrawals by Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro, he’s had the season of his career. John won his biggest title to date in Miami, advanced to his first Major semifinal at Wimbledon, and made his third Major quarterfinal at the US Open. Djokovic is 8-2 lifetime against Isner, with the American’s only victories coming on US hard courts. The low-bouncing courts at the O2 will do the 6’10” Isner no favors, but you can never count out Isner in the best-of-three format. He of course often ends up in tiebreaks, and he’ll only need to win two on Monday to pull off the upset. However, judging by Novak’s form of late, I don’t think Djokovic will allow that to happen.
Head-to-head (Djokovic leads 8-2)
Year | Event | Winner | Result | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | Beijing China |
Novak Djokovic |
62 62
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2015 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami FL, U.S.A. |
Novak Djokovic |
763 62
|
||
2015 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. |
Novak Djokovic |
64 765
|
||
2014 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. |
Novak Djokovic |
75 672 61
|
||
2013 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Paris France |
Novak Djokovic |
675 61 62
|
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2013 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. |
John Isner |
765 36 75
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2013 | USA vs. SRB WG QF United States |
Novak Djokovic |
765 62 75
|
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2012 | ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. |
John Isner |
767 36 765
|
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2010 | Beijing China |
Novak Djokovic |
761 62
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2010 | SRB vs. USA WG 1st RD Serbia |
Novak Djokovic |
75 36 63 676 64
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