Unfortunately, two of this season’s best performers will not play in London due to injury. Rafael Nadal has been dealing with multiple injuries, and has not played since the US Open. Subsequently, he just dropped the No.1 ranking to Novak Djokovic, who will now end the year as the top-ranked player for a fifth time. Also absent from the ATP Finals will be Juan Martin Del Potro, who fractured his right patella in Shanghai last month and has not played since. Kei Nishikori and John Isner will take their places in the London draw. Also notably absent are the last two winners of this tournament. 2017 Champion Grigor Dimitrov did not even qualify this year, nor did last year’s runner-up, David Goffin. And 2016 Champion Andy Murray is currently ranked 263rd in the world, having only played twelve matches this year following hip surgery in 2017.
The only former champions at this year’s ATP Finals are Five-Time Champion Novak Djokovic, and Six-Time Champion Roger Federer. Djokovic is heavily favored to tie Federer’s record of six titles at the ATP Finals considering his results during the second half of this season. Rounding out the 2018 field are Sascha Zverev, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic, and Dominic Thiem. Overall it is the tallest field in ATP Finals history, thanks to the 6’8” Anderson and 6’10” Isner making their debuts. With many big servers in the field, and considering the indoor conditions, we should be in for many tights contests over the next eight days.
On Sunday, the Lleyton Hewitt group will open play in the singles event.
Kevin Anderson vs. Dominic Thiem
In his ATP Finals debut, Anderson is actually the fourth seed in the absence of Nadal and Del Potro. For Thiem, it’s his third straight appearance in London, though he’s yet to advance out of the round robin stage. Historically a poor performer in the second half of the year, Thiem has changed that narrative in 2018. Dominic made the semis just last week in Paris, won the St. Petersburg title in September, and advanced to his first non-clay Major quarterfinal in New York. That run was highlighted by his straight-set fourth round victory over Anderson, with what many called the best hard court tennis Thiem has ever played. Overall Anderson is 6-2 against Thiem, but Dominic won both of their 2018 meetings. Kevin arrives with a bit of confidence as well, having won the biggest title of his career just a few weeks ago in Vienna. This should be a close battle, but it feels like Thiem is playing the better hard court tennis over the past few months. He’ll also be boosted by his US Open win over Anderson, while I could easily see Anderson being nervous in his firth match at the O2. I give the slight edge to Thiem in the first singles match of the tournament.
Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori
These two have played twice this fall, with Federer winning in straights sets in the quarterfinals of both Shanghai and Paris. Federer is 7-2 lifetime versus Nishikori, with Kei’s only victories coming over four years ago. Their best match came at the 2017 Australian Open, when Roger defeated Kei in five sets on the way to his first Major title since 2012. As mentioned, Federer has won this event six times, though not since 2011. He’s also a four-time finalist, and has only once failed to advance out of the round robin stage in fifteen appearances. Nishikori meanwhile has qualified three previous times, and has twice been a semifinalist. Kei’s 4-7 record at the ATP Finals pales in comparison to Roger’s 55-13 record at this event. Federer is coming off his over three-hour semifinal loss to Djokovic in Paris last weekend, though he’s had a full week to recover and should be at his best this week in London. There’s no reason to believe the result here will be different than their previous two matches this year.
