Saturday’s semifinals feature two of the greatest players of all-time, who have dominated this tournament for a decade and a half. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have combined to win this event 11 of the last 15 years. Standing in their way of playing for another championship on Sunday are two men who have advanced to the semifinals of the ATP Finals for the first time. One is a 32-year-old veteran in his first year qualifying for this event. The other is a 21-year-old who is likely playing in his first of many championship weekends at this event.
Roger Federer vs. Sascha Zverev
Federer and Zverev have an intriguing history. Federer took their first match, on clay at the 2016 Rome Masters. A month later, Zverev pulled off the upset in the Halle semifinals on grass. A year later at the same event, Roger prevailed in a final that lasted less than an hour. Just weeks later, Sascha won in the final of the Rogers Cup on a hard court. And one year ago at this event, Federer was victorious in a three-set round robin match. Since they’ve alternated wins thus far, perhaps it’s Zverev’s turn to win today.
“It’s going to be a very difficult match. I mean, him (Federer) on this surface, an indoor court, he’s an unbelievable player.” Said Zverev. “I’ve Played him a few times in all different conditions, all different surfaces.”
While Federer got off to a very slow start this week, he has upped his level with each match, as he has gotten more comfortable with the playing surface at the O2. Now into his fifteenth semifinal at this tournament, Roger is 10-4 at this stage. But I’m more curious to see how Zverev performs on Saturday. He’s yet to breakthrough to the latter stages at a Major, yet this is a huge opportunity to advance his career at the biggest non-Major tournament of the year.
“I’m happy I gave myself the opportunity. I’m happy that I’m raising my level of play throughout this week. This is what I hope to do.” Federer commented about his run to the last four.
The crowd will likely play a considerable role, as London loves Federer and will be extremely vocal in supporting him as we’ve seen all week. How will Sascha respond to the crowd, the significance of the match, and his opponent? Well he showed a lack of resilience on Wednesday, as he completely went away after dropping the first set to Djokovic. And as Gigi Salmon pointed out on ATP Tennis Radio, Zverev has looked pretty spent this week at the end of a long season. I suspect Zverev will be motivated on Saturday, and he’ll keep the scoreline close, but I still like Federer’s chances to advance to his 11th final.
Novak Djokovic vs. Kevin Anderson
As far as official ATP matches are concerned, Djokovic is 7-1 against Anderson, with the South African’s only victory coming the first time they played over 10 years ago in Miami. However, Anderson did get the best of Djokovic at the Laver Cup this past September, in a match decided by a 10-point final set tiebreak. Djokovic has defeated Anderson three times in London, though all three matches took place at the All England Club. Of course Novak easily dispatched of Anderson in this year’s Wimbledon final, following Kevin’s near-seven-hour semifinal with John Isner. Their best previous meeting was at SW19 in 2015, when Djokovic came back from two sets down to defeat Anderson in five. Most recently, Novak won in straight sets last month in Shanghai. If you count the Laver Cup, this is their fourth meeting in 2018.
“He has played some big tennis throughout this year. It’s definitely his best season.” The current US Open champion said of Anderson. “The last couple of years he has been playing his best tennis. He continued doing that throughout the tournament.
He’s serving well, playing well and being aggressive. I know what to expect.”
Djokovic is the only man to go undefeated in this week’s round robin play. He’s yet to drop a set, and has truly been at the top of his game with first-rate returns and unrivaled movement around the court. Novak is averaging just above five unforced errors per set thus far at this tournament, with a total of only four double faults in six sets played. During one stretch of Friday’s match against Marin Cilic, Djokovic won 31 straight points on serve, as highlighted by Steph Trudel on Twitter. Bottom line: Novak is giving his opponents nothing to work with. While Kevin Anderson played well in his first two round robin matches, he was thoroughly outplayed by Federer on Thursday night. The slow-bouncing hard court at the O2 will only allow Djokovic extra time to handle Anderson’s power. And considering Novak is 5-1 in the semifinal round of this event, this should be smooth sailing for Djokovic to reach his seventh championship match at the ATP Finals.
