ATP Finals Day 3 Preview: Roger Federer Targets Redemption In Critical Match

Tuesday at The O2 Arena will see Roger Federer enter into unfamiliar territory. For the first time in his 16 appearances at the ATP Finals, the Swiss player is set-loss going into his second match after losing to Kei Nishikori on Sunday. In danger of failing to progress beyond the group stages, Federer is hoping to get back on track when he plays Dominic Thiem. Meanwhile, In the other match, Kevin Anderson could become the first African player to reach the semifinals of the tournament in his debut. The historic milestone could be achieved depending on the outcome of his match against Nishikori and if Federer wins his. 

Lleyton Hewitt Group Standings:

Kevin Anderson vs. Kei Nishikori

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This is their third meeting within the last 16 days, and their fourth match on an indoor hard court this year. Anderson upended Nishikori for the biggest title of the South African’s career in Vienna. Kei then avenged that loss just four days later in Paris. They also played the final of the New York Open back in February, which Anderson won in a third set tiebreak. While Kevin is 2-1 against Kei in 2018, Nishikori holds a 6-3 edge in their careers. Both players have great indoor hard court records this year, and the winner will be in a commanding position in the Lleyton Hewitt Group. Considering their recent history, their contrasting styles, and the significance of this match for both players, a close contest seems likely. Coming off the upset of Federer, his self-described idol, I could see Nishikori having a bit of a mental letdown on Tuesday. And Anderson has proven over the course of this season what a strong competitor he has become in tight situations. With that mind, I’m leaning ever-so-slightly in Anderson’s favor.

Head-to-head

Roger Federer vs. Dominic Thiem

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Thiem is one of the rare players to have a winning record against Federer. All three of their matches took place in 2016, a season when Roger never really reached peak form. And all three of those matches took place on different surfaces. Federer prevailed on a hard court in Brisbane, while Thiem was victorious on clay in Rome and on grass in Stuttgart. Normally Roger would be heavily favored on an indoor hard court against Thiem, but I’m not fully convinced he should be today. Federer hit 34 unforced errors on Sunday in a sloppy and cranky performance against Nishikori. And as Brett Haber highlighted on Tennis Channel in the US, Roger is 2-5 against top 10 opposition in 2018. His last top 10 win came in February, with five straight losses since that time. Thiem is in the midst of the strongest fall season of his career. And Dominic played some very good ball in defeat on Sunday, specifically in a 23-minute second set tiebreak. It seems Federer could be vulnerable for another upset, which would put him at serious risk of not advancing out of the round robin stage for only the second time in sixteen ATP Finals appearances. He’ll need to significantly reduce his error count, and arrive to court in a more positive disposition, to take out an in-form Dominic Thiem on Tuesday.

Head-to-head