The championship matches in women’s singles and men’s doubles will be played on Saturday.
Iga Swiatek is becoming one of the best clay court players of all-time. As per Tennis Abstract, she is 86-10 on this surface, a winning percentage of nearly 90%. At Roland Garros, Iga is 34-2, and is currently on a 20-match win streak. With a victory on Saturday, the 23-year-old will join an elite list of players who have won four or more French Open singles titles in the Open Era: Rafael Nadal, Chris Evert, Bjorn Borg, Steffi Graf, and Justine Henin.
This is a shocking and impressive result for Italy’s Jasmine Paolini. Prior to this year, the 28-year-old had never advanced beyond the second round of a Major. But after reaching the second week of the Australian Open, and then winning a WTA 1000 title in Dubai, Jasmine is a Major finalist and a new member of the top 10. And just as her doubles partner Sara Errani achieved in 2012, Paolini is also a finalist in women’s doubles. What a fortnight it has been for the WTA veteran. But is there anything Paolini can do to challenge Swiatek on Saturday?
Following the women’s final, it will be Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic (9) vs. Andrea Vavassori and Simone Bolelli (11) in the men’s doubles championship match. Arevalo won this event two years ago with a different partner, while this would complete a career Grand Slam for Pavic. This is a second consecutive Major final for the Italian team of Vavassori and Bolelli, who lost the championship match in Melbourne this past January. It would be the first taste of Grand Slam glory for Vavassori, though Bolelli won the Australian Open back in 2015 alongside another Italian, Fabio Fognini.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Jasmine Paolini (12) – Not Before 3:00pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Swiatek is now 44-4 on the year, and 20-1 on clay. She is on an 18-match winning streak, after collecting back-to-back titles at the WTA events in Madrid and Rome. She has dropped only one set through six matches in Paris, to Naomi Osaka in the second round, when she saved a match point. Since that escape, it’s been completely smooth sailing for the two-time defending champion, averaging less than two games lost per set. And that includes consecutive victories over reigning Major singles champions (Vondrousova, Gauff).
Paolini is 22-10 in 2024, and she survived a trio of three-setters during this tournament. Her biggest win came against fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals, as she was the smarter and more composed player on that day. In the semifinals, she easily eliminated 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who was emotionally drained coming off an upset of her own against Aryna Sabalenka the day before. Between singles and doubles, Jasmine is 11-0 during this fortnight.
Swiatek is 2-0 against Paolini, and the set scores have not been close: 6-2, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0. One of those matches occurred six years ago in Prague, while the other was in the first round of the 2022 US Open. And Iga is a perfect 4-0 in Major finals, having lost only one set. Perhaps even more intimidating is her record of 21-4 in WTA-level finals, and she’s claimed her last eight, dating all the way back to this same event a year ago.
Paolini is just 2-3 in WTA finals, and of course this is completely new territory for her: the championship match at a Major. However, I do not expect Jasmine to be overwhelmed by this occasion. She has an aggressive mindset, and Paolini has taken it to opponents favored over her multiple times during this tournament. Jasmine knows Iga is a huge favorite on Saturday, and that most of the pressure is on the World No.1, so Paolini should play rather freely.
The issue is there is not much in Paolini’s game that can threaten Swiatek. While Jasmine has defended her serve rather well, especially in crucial moments, the diminutive Italian’s serve is vulnerable against such a world-class returner like Iga. Opposition has referred to Swiatek’s play on clay as “suffocating,” as she possesses an elite yet low-risk level of aggression on this surface that she is able to maintain.
The only players across the past three years who have been able to truly challenge Iga on clay are big-hitters like Sabalenka, Rybakina, Muchova, and Osaka. Paolini just does not have the power necessary to make Swiatek uncomfortable. Iga is a huge favorite to win her fifth Major title on Saturday.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
