The championship matches in men’s singles and women’s doubles will be played on Sunday.
19 years ago, a young Spaniard named Rafael Nadal started a legendary relationship with Roland Garros, winning his first of a record-breaking 14 titles at this event. Now in the same year that Nadal seemingly bid farewell to the French Open, another young Spaniard looks to begin his own Parisian legacy. On Sunday, Carlos Alcaraz plays for his third Major title, and his first on the surface he grew up on.
Four years ago, Sascha Zverev reached his only other Major final, in an empty stadium during the 2020 US Open. Despite holding a two-set lead, Zverev lost that championship match to Dominic Thiem in a fifth-set tiebreak, after some extremely nervous play. On Sunday, a confident and self-described more mature version of Sascha returns to the last round of a Major, this time in a sold out stadium, and looking for a different result.
Also on Day 15, in the women’s doubles championship match at 11:30am local time, it will be Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini (11) vs. Coco Gauff and Katerina Siniakova (5). After losing the women’s singles final on Saturday, Paolini vies for Grand Slam glory alongside Errani, who is a five-time Major champion in women’s doubles. Between singles and doubles, Gauff is 0-3 in Slam finals, which includes a runner-up appearance here two years ago in both disciplines. Siniakova owns seven Major titles in women’s doubles, all of which came with Barbora Krejcikova.
Sascha Zverev (4) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Not Before 2:30pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Alcaraz has only played 29 matches this year, with a record of 24-5, as he missed several big events due to a right arm injury. That included absences at two of the ATP’s biggest European clay court events, Monte Carlo and Rome. Yet despite the injury and lack of match play, Carlitos has advanced to his third Major final with the loss of just three sets, two of which came against Jannik Sinner in Friday’s semifinals.
By contrast, Zverev has been the healthiest of the top seven ATP players during this clay court season. He is 34-9 in 2024, and comes into this match on a 12-match winning streak, after taking the Masters 1000 title in Rome three weeks ago. Sascha endured a complicated path to this championship match, which included a pair of five-setters. And he surely values his bodily health after the awful ankle injury he suffered in the semifinals of this event two years ago. He would love to continue creating more positive memories on Court Philippe-Chatrier.
Zverev holds a narrow 5-4 edge in their head-to-head, though on clay, Alcaraz leads 2-1. However, Sascha’s sole victory on clay came in their only previous meeting at this event, in the 2022 quarterfinals. And the German is 2-1 against the Spaniard at Majors.
Alcaraz has a definitive edge in speed as well as on the forehand side, while Zverev will look to use his serve to dictate play, and possesses a more formidable backhand. But the biggest difference between these two is how they play in big matches. Carlitos is 7-1 in finals at Majors and Masters 1000 tournaments, with his only loss coming in an epic championship match last summer in Cincinnati against Novak Djokovic. Sascha is just 6-6 in finals at those same levels, and his record of 2-6 in Major semifinals speaks to how passively he often plays in big matches.
And if the match goes the distance, that is a distinct advantage for Alcaraz, who is 10-1 lifetime in five-setters. While Zverev’s mark of 23-11 is actually pretty strong, many of those wins came against players ranked outside the top 100, and in matches where Sascha arguably should have won without going five.
Plus, trying to accomplish the sport’s biggest feat, winning a Major title, when you have not only never done so before, but actually choked when you were so close to doing so, is a lot to overcome. While I don’t expect Zverev to play as nervously in his second Major final as his first, Alcaraz remains the freer swinger at crucial moments. Carlitos should be favored to win his third Major title on Sunday in Paris.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
