It’s Quarterfinal Friday in Paris, while round-robin action concludes on Friday in Cancun, with the last two semifinal spots still to be decided.
A year ago, Holger Rune announced himself to the tennis world by defeating Novak Djokovic in the final of the Paris Masters, one of five top 10 players he upset that week. On Friday, we get the rematch in the quarterfinals. It’s a big match for both as far rankings are concerned, as Djokovic looks to extend his lead over Carlos Alcaraz in the race for No.1, and Rune tries to secure a qualifying spot for the ATP Finals.
In Cancun, Iga Swiatek (2-0) leads her round-robin group, but has not mathematically clinched her semifinal spot quite yet. On Friday, she’s plays Ons Jabeur (1-1), in a rematch from last year’s US Open final. Plus, both Coco Gauff (1-1) and Marketa Vondrousova (0-2) still have a chance of advancing, and will square off on Friday. The full breakdown of the complicated advancement scenarios in this round-robin group can be found here.
Each day, this preview will analyze the most intriguing matchup from both the WTA Finals and the ATP Paris Masters, while highlighting the other matches on the schedules. Friday’s play begins at 2:00pm local time in Paris, and at 11:30am local time in Cancun.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Holger Rune (6) – Not Before 7:30pm on Court Central in Paris
Djokovic now leads Alcaraz by 680 points in the year-to-date rankings, and could earn another 180 points with a victory on Friday. He is a six-time champion in Paris, and is currently on a 15-match winning streak, dating back to August.
Rune has 3,460 points this year, and his victory on Thursday put him in a solid spot to qualify for the ATP Finals. His next closest competitor, Hubert Hurkacz, would now need to reach the final to pass him. Holger is on an eight-match winning streak at this event, and will certainly gain some useful knowledge from his new coach Boris Becker, who of course spent years coaching Novak.
A year ago in the final of this tournament, Rune came back from a set down to win 7-5 in the third, saving six break points in the last game. Holger also defeated Novak in a three-setter six months ago at the Rome Masters on clay. Djokovic’s only win in this rivalry to date came at the 2021 US Open, but even then, a young Rune ranked 145th in the world managed to win a set.
But on Friday, I favor Djokovic to avenge his recent losses to Rune. The 20-year-old has struggled in recent months, and is playing with a lower level of confidence than he was here a year ago, when he had an excellent indoor hard court run to end the year. And we know how much Novak enjoys fighting off the next generation.
Iga Swiatek (2) vs. Ons Jabeur (6) – Not Before 6:00pm in Cancun
Swiatek is 4-2 against Jabeur overall, and 2-1 on hard courts. In the championship match of last summer’s US Open, Iga defeated Ons in straight sets. Their only other meeting this year didn’t last long: in the semifinals of Stuttgart on clay, Ons retired after just three games due to injury.
Injuries have unfortunately been a big part of Jabeur’s season, as she’s only accumulated 36 match wins, compared to 65 for Swiatek. That’s just two shy of Iga’s impressive tally from last year.
On Friday, Iga is a considerable favorite over Ons. The World No.1 is on an eight-match hard court winning streak, dating back to her WTA 1000 title run in Beijing. And Jabeur comes into this contest having won just two of her last four matches, having withdrawn from her last tournament just a few weeks ago due to a knee injury.
Other Notable Matches on Friday:
Hubert Hurkacz (11) vs. Grigor Dimitrov – As mentioned, Hurkacz now needs to reach the final to qualify this week for the ATP Finals. However, he is 0-3 against Dimitrov, with two of those matches decided by a final-set tiebreak. Both players comfortably won in straight sets on Thursday.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (7) vs. Karen Khachanov (16) – Tsitsipas officially qualified for the ATP Finals by defeating Sascha Zverev in the last round. Khachanov was a surprise champion here five years ago, but he is 1-6 lifetime against the Greek.
Alex de Minaur (13) vs. Andrey Rublev (5) – De Minaur still has an outside chance this week to qualify for his first ATP Finals appearance, but only if he wins the title, and if Rune loses to Djokovic. Alex is 3-1 against Andrey, having taken all three of their hard court meetings.
Coco Gauff (3) vs. Marketa Vondrousova (7) – Both of these players struggled with their serve in windy conditions on Wednesday, with Gauff double faulting four times in a row while serving for the second set against Swiatek, and losing 12 of the last 13 points of the match. That huge letdown will be tough to recover from on Friday, but Coco is 2-0 against Marketa, and defeated her 6-3, 6-0 this summer in Canada.
Friday’s full Order of Play for the WTA Finals is here, and for the ATP Paris Masters is here.
