It’s Semifinal Saturday in Cancun, with the year-end World No.1 ranking on the line.
The semifinalists are four of the top five players in the world, and three of the four Major singles champions of 2023. The first semifinal is a battle between close friends and doubles partners: Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff.
The second semifinal is one of the biggest WTA matches of the year, between the year’s two best players: Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. If Sabalenka wins, she secures the year-end World No.1 ranking. If Swiatek wins, and also goes on to win Sunday’s final, she’ll end the season as No.1 for the second straight year. It’s a huge day of tennis on Saturday in Cancun.
Jessica Pegula (5) vs. Coco Gauff (3) – Not Before 5:00pm local time
It will be a very busy day for both Pegula and Gauff, as they’re also still alive in doubles, and are yet to finish their last round-robin match. And based on that result, they could advance to the semifinals in doubles, which will also be played on Saturday.
A year after both Jess and Coco each went 0-6 between singles and doubles at this event, they’ve completely turned things around in 2023. Pegula went 3-0 in singles round-robin play, taking all six sets she played. Gauff went 2-1, coming back from a set down on Friday night against Marketa Vondrousova to clinch her semifinal spot.
Pegula leads their head-to-head 2-1 overall, and 2-0 on hard courts. Gauff’s only victory came earlier this season on grass in Eastbourne. They played an extremely tight contest this summer in Montreal, with Jess prevailing 7-5 in the third, making her the only player to defeat Coco this summer on a hard court.
Based on their history, as well as their form this week, Pegula should be favored to advance to Sunday’s final. Her victories this week over Sabalenka, Rybakina, and Sakkari were clinical, while Gauff’s serve has broken down significantly in the windy conditions.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – Not Before 6:15pm local time
Much like Pegula, Swiatek swept through round-robin play with a 3-0 record, and a 6-0 record in sets. Sabalenka crushed Maria Sakkari in her first match, then lost to Pegula before outlasting Rybakina in three.
Sabalenka is 55-13 on the year, compared to Swiatek’s record of 66-11. But despite winning 11 more matches, Iga trails Aryna by 630 points in the rankings, as Sabalenka performed extremely well at the Majors. That means Swiatek must win this event to overtake Sabalenka as the year-end No.1.
Swiatek leads their head-to-head 5-3 overall, but they are 2-2 on hard courts. And Sabalenka’s two hard court triumphs came in the past two years in this tournament, with Aryna winning in three sets each time. They split two meetings this year, though they were both on clay. Their highest-profile encounter was in the 2022 US Open semifinals, where Iga came back from a set down to prevail 6-4 in the third.
With so much on the line in this semifinal, I give Swiatek the slight edge. She’s been the much more consistent player this week amid tough conditions in Cancun. Plus, being the World No.1 is still rather new territory for Sabalenka, so she’ll surely be nervous as she tries to defend her ranking against the former No.1.
Saturday’s full Order of Play for the WTA Finals is here.
