The women’s singles semifinals will be played on Thursday night, with the men’s doubles semifinals scheduled during the day.
In a rematch of the championship match in Cincinnati from a few weeks ago, Coco Gauff faces Karolina Muchova in the first semifinal. Gauff won 6-3, 6-4 on that day to claim the biggest title of her career. Which of these two players will advance to their second Major final in singles?
And could we have an all-American final? In the second semifinal of the evening, Australian Open champ Aryna Sabalenka faces the runner-up from the last time there were two Americans in the US Open women’s singles final, Madison Keys.
Coco Gauff (6) vs. Karolina Muchova (10) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Since losing in the first round of Wimbledon, which resulted in changes to her coaching team, Gauff is now 16-1, and is currently on a 12-match winning streak. After dropping sets in three of her first four matches in New York, she authoritatively dispatched of Jelena Ostapenko in the last round by a score of 6-0, 6-2. This is Coco’s second Major semifinal, after first achieving this feat a year ago in Paris, where she defeated Martina Trevisan In the semis before losing to Iga Swiatek in the final.
Muchova is also having a great summer, prevailing in 10 of her last 11 matches, and 11 of her last 13 at Slams. She’s lost only one set to this stage, to Xinyu Wang in the fourth round, and allowed her quarterfinal opponent Sorana Cirstea just one more game than Gauff allowed Ostapenko. Karolina is 1-1 in Major semifinals, after pulling off a monumental comeback three months ago at Roland Garros against Sabalenka, saving match point and winning 20 of the last 24 points.
Their recent meeting in the Cincinnati final is their only one to date. Based on that meeting, and considering Gauff has the huge advantage of playing on her home country’s biggest court, she’s the favorite to reach her second Major final in singles. However, Muchova will undoubtedly make this a tight affair, and her various weapons and all-court game make her a dangerous threat to upset the American teenager.
Madison Keys (17) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Second on Arthur Ashe Stadium
This matchup is a classic example of what Mary Carillo long-ago coined as “big babe tennis,” between two of the WTA’s most explosive ball strikers. And it’s a rematch from the last Major, which saw Sabalenka prevail 6-2, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon. They split two other previous encounters, with Aryna taking the one on a hard court back in 2018.
Sabalenka is 49-10 this season, and is the only female player to advance to the semifinals at all four Slams this year. However, this round of Majors is where Aryna has suffered the most painful losses of her career. After losing her first three Major semis in three sets, she finally broke through this past January against Magda Linette in Melbourne , where she of course went on to win the title. But at the last two Slams, she’s again stalled in this round, which includes the aforementioned disaster she made of the third set against Muchova in Paris, and another three-set loss to Ons Jabeur in London. Sabalenka is just 1-5 in Major semifinals.
This is a sixth Major semifinal for Keys, and she’s only 1-4 herself. And while all four of those losses were in straight sets, it’s worth noting three of them were at the hands of multi-time Slam champs (Serena Williams, Naomi Osaka, Ash Barty). But Sabalenka can find solace in knowing Keys’ Major semifinal history is no more successful than hers.
Keys has dropped only one set through five rounds, and has beaten three consecutive top 15 seeds (Samsonova, Pegula, Vondrousova). But Sabalenka has absolutely steamrolled the competition this fortnight, taking all 10 sets she’s played, and permitting her opposition an average of only two games per set. She’s been the best WTA player of the year, and despite her troubling history in Slam semis, Aryna should be favored to advance to Saturday’s championship match.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Rohan Bopanna and Matthew Ebden (6) vs. Nicolas Mahut and Pierre-Hugues Herbert – Bopanna and Ebden claimed two hard court titles earlier this season. Mahut and Herbert have won five Majors as a team, including this event back in 2015.
Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury (3) vs. Ivan Dodig and Austin Krajicek (2) – Ram and Salisbury are the two-time defending champions of this tournament, while Dodig and Krajicek won this year’s Roland Garros.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
