On Sunday in New York, the men’s singles and women’s doubles championship matches will be played.
Two years ago in the final of this same tournament, Novak Djokovic was just one match away from the ever-elusive calendar-year Grand Slam. But on that day, a nervous and drained Novak succumbed to Daniil Medvedev, who claimed his first and only Major title to date. Now in 2023, Djokovic vies to avenge that painful loss in the same round of the same event, and win his record-extending 24th men’s singles title at a Major.
And in the women’s doubles championship match, it will be Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe (16) vs. Laura Siegemund and Vera Zvonareva (12). This is a second Major final for Dabrowski in women’s doubles, and she’s already a two-time Slam champ in mixed doubles. Routliffe is a Major final debutante.
Siegemund and Zvonareva won this tournament in 2020. Siegemund also won mixed doubles at this event in 2016, while Zvonareva has three US Open titles in women’s doubles (2006, 2012, 2020), two in mixed doubles (2004, 2006), and of course was a runner-up here in singles back in 2010.
Daniil Medvedev (3) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – 4:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Djokovic is 44-5 on the year, and has now reached all four Major finals in 2023, where he’s 2-1 thus far. He’s won five of his six matches this fortnight in straight sets, and came back from two sets down in the third round against his fellow countryman, Laslo Djere. Novak already has four titles this year (Adelaide, Australian Open, Roland Garros, Cincinnati), with his only loss in a final coming against Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon. In his career, Djokovic is 95-40 in ATP finals, and 23-12 in Major finals.
However, Novak has a sorted history at this particular Major. He is only 3-6 in US Open finals, which is a startling stat for a man easily considered the best male hard court player of all time. By contrast, he’s a perfect 10-0 in Australian Open finals.
And in the last three years, this tournament has been particularly frustrating for Djokovic. In 2020, he was disqualified in the fourth round for hitting a linesperson in the neck with a tennis ball. In 2021, he suffered the aforementioned loss to Medvedev while playing for the Grand Slam. And in 2022, he was unable to enter the United States due to his vaccination status.
Medvedev is 55-11 in 2023, with five titles (Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, Miami, Rome). Four of those titles, all on hard courts, came between February and March of this year. Daniil’s results had tapered off in recent months, and he uncharacteristically went just 3-2 on North American hard courts heading into this tournament. But as he often does at hard court Majors, Medvedev built his confidence as the tournament progressed, dropping only three sets through six matches.
Ahead of his semifinal against Alcaraz, Medvedev stated he would have to play “11 out of 10” to defeat Carlitos. And Daniil did just that, performing at an extremely high level in that match. He won 82% of his first serve points, and saved eight of the nine break points he faced, showing how well he played the critical points in the match.
Medvedev is 20-13 in ATP finals, and just 1-3 in Major finals. That includes two soul-crushing five-set losses to Rafael Nadal, and a one-sided straight-set loss to Djokovic, which occurred at the 2021 Australian Open. Medvedev is yet to play anyone not named Nadal or Djokovic in a Major final.
Novak and Daniil have played 14 times across the last seven seasons, with Djokovic leading their head-to-head 9-5 overall, and 8-4 on hard courts. At Majors, Novak leads 2-1. After losing to Medvedev is the final of this event two years ago, Djokovic went on a revenge tour against him, winning their next four encounters. But Daniil claimed their most recent meeting, six months ago in the semifinals of Dubai.
These are definitively the two best ATP hard court players of the past five years. Since August of 2018, they have combined to win 34 titles on this surface, with 17 each. But at this level, there is no comparison. During that same span, Djokovic has won five hard court Majors, even with missing a few because of vaccine protocols, while Medvedev has procured just one.
On the last day of the 2023 US Open, Novak is the favorite to pick up yet another hard court Major. And that’s not despite his history in New York, it’s because of it. After what Djokovic has gone through in recent years at this event, including his 2021 loss to Medvedev, he’ll be exceedingly motivated to reassert his authority on Arthur Ashe Stadium. And unlike 2021, Novak comes into this match fully fresh, after a straight-set victory over Ben Shelton on Friday. Plus, he’s on an 11-match winning streak, and has won 24 of his last 25 matches, dating back to the start of Roland Garros. Simply put, Djokovic is currently at the height of his abilities.
And when’s he’s in this kind of form, an extraordinary level is required of his opponents. No other player can consistently match Novak’s well-rounded skillset, and his superiority reveals itself even more so in the best-of-five format. Daniil already had to reach an astounding level to advance beyond Alcaraz in the semifinals. Maintaining that level for a second match in a row, and under the pressure that comes with a Major final, will be an extremely challenging task. Djokovic will regain the World No.1 ranking on Monday regardless of Sunday’s outcome, but I expect him to do so as a 24-time Major champion.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
