The singles quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday, with hot and humid conditions continuing in New York.
Wednesday’s singles quarterfinals each feature a Major champion against a player striving to achieve that feat for the first time. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz looks to avenge a painful loss from last year’s Roland Garros quarterfinals at the hands of Sascha Zverev. 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev plays close friend Andrey Rublev, who will fight to overcome an 0-8 record in Slam quarterfinals.
On the women’s side, we have two first-time meetings. Reigning Australian Open champ Aryna Sabalenka faces 20-year-old Qinwen Zheng, who upset three-time Major runner-up Ons Jabeur in the last round. And reigning Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova takes on Madison Keys, a runner-up here in 2017.
Plus, Day 10 provides two extremely appetizing women’s doubles quarterfinals, featuring some of the WTA’s best singles and doubles players.
Qinwen Zheng (23) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 12:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Sabalenka has been completely dominant this fortnight, dropping just 16 games through eight sets. She is now 48-10 on the year, and 28-5 on hard courts. She will be the new World No.1 on Monday regardless of her results the rest of this week. And Aryna is a perfect 6-0 in Major quarterfinals, as she vies for her seventh semifinal out of her last nine Slams.
This is a first Major quarterfinal for Qinwen. After first reaching the second week of a Slam last year in Paris, her results had tapered off a bit. But Zheng made a coaching switch this summer, hiring one of the WTA’s most successful and prolific coaches of the past 15 years, Wim Fissette. And results have come rather immediately, with Zheng winning a WTA title on clay in Palermo before this impressive run in New York.
In a recent feature on usopen.org, Fissette describes Qinwen as “a raw talent,” and talks about helping her learn how to make better choices on court with her power. That’s something Sabalenka has vastly improved on in recent years. So while I’m quite curious to see how Zheng performs on this stage, and Aryna can become error-prone when tested, Sabalenka remains a significant favorite to advance.
Daniil Medvedev (3) vs. Andrey Rublev (8) – Second on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Is Rublev ready to conquer his quarterfinal scare tissue? Throughout all eight of his previous matches at this stage of Majors, he’s only 3-24 in sets, dating back to his first quarterfinal six years ago at this event, when he lost to Rafael Nadal. And further complicating matters for Andrey is playing such a close friend in his ninth quarterfinal. He describes Medvedev as “family,” and Andrey is even the godfather to Daniil’s child.
By contrast to Rublev, Medvedev is a strong 6-1 in Major quarterfinals, with his only loss coming in his only one on clay. On hard courts, he’s 5-0. And Daniil has been the considerably better player in 2023, with a record of 53-11 and five titles, compared to Andrey’s record of 44-17 and only two titles.
Medvedev leads their head-to-head 5-2 at tour level, with all seven matches taking place on this surface. Daniil claimed their first four, with Andrey taking the next two. And most recently, six months ago in the final of Dubai, Medvedev thumped Rublev 6-2, 6-2. Andrey can draw some confidence from how Daniil’s five titles all came within the first five months of the year, and his form his dipped this summer. But Rublev himself arrived in New York on a three-match losing streak, and did not have to face a player ranked inside the top 70 to advance to this quarterfinal. Medvedev should be strongly favored to reach his fourth semifinal out of the last five US Opens.
Marketa Vondrousova (9) vs. Madison Keys (17) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
After easily winning her first three matches in straight sets, Vondrousova was forced to come back from a set down on Monday against another American, Peyton Stearns. She’s now on an 11-match win streak at Majors, and is into her third Major quarterfinal. However, Marketa has been nursing an elbow injury, and even pulled out of the women’s doubles event this week because of it.
Keys just crushed third-seeded Jessica Pegula on Monday, by a score of 6-1, 6-3. She completely overpowered Pegula with both her serve and her return, winning 77% of first serve points, and breaking her in five out of Jess’ eight service games. This is a 10th career Slam quarterfinal for Madison, and she is 5-4 previously in this round.
Based on Vondrousova’s injury, I lean towards Keys to be the victor on Wednesday evening. Madison’s improved return will clobber Marketa’s serve if her arm cannot generate her usual speed and spin on her serve. And as a Florida resident, the American won’t mind the warm conditions.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Sascha Zverev (12) – Last on Arthur Ashe Stadium
What will Zverev have left after his remarkably draining fourth round contest against Jannik Sinner? They played for nearly five hours in excruciating humidity, and in a five-setter that went well beyond 1:00am local time on Tuesday morning. It was a huge victory for Sascha in his comeback from a season-ending ankle injury from a year ago, but will it prevent him from having a chance in this quarterfinal?
And on Wednesday night, he faces a man who is 57-6 on the year, and has won his last three Major quarterfinals since losing to Zverev last season in Paris. Alcaraz has also won his last 11 matches at Majors, as well as in New York. However, while Carlitos has dropped only one set to this stage, and easily won his fourth round contest against Matteo Arnaldi, his left hamstring was taped up during that match, leading to questions regarding how that may impact his play as this tournament progresses.
Plus, Zverev is 3-2 against Alcaraz, and 2-0 on hard courts, though it’s worth noting both of those matches took place in 2021. In 2023, Carlitos has evolved into one of the sport’s elite. And considering what Zverev endured in the last round, Alcaraz should be favored to even their head-to-head and return to the semifinals.
Other Notable Matches on Wednesday:
Laura Siegemund and Vera Zvonareva (12) vs. Victoria Azarenka and Beatriz Haddad Maia – Siegemund and Zvonareva won this tournament three years ago, defeating Azarenka and then-partner Sofia Kenin in the championship match. Azarenka and Haddad Maia won the Madrid Open earlier this year, in the first event of their partnership.
Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula (3) vs. Su-wei Hsieh and Xinyu Wang (8) – Gauff and Pegula have won four titles together since last August, and were finalists a year ago at Roland Garros. Su-wei has won the women’s doubles title at both of the last two Majors, with Xinyu as her partner this past June at Roland Garros.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.