Outside of his Laver Cup doubles match with a retiring Roger Federer, Wednesday will mark Rafael Nadal’s first match is nearly two months, since he was upset in the fourth round of the US Open by Frances Tiafoe. In his return, Nadal faces Tommy Paul, who defeated another Spaniard, Roberto Bautista Agut, on Tuesday. Other action in Paris includes big names such as Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
In Fort Worth, the second round of round-robin action begins. After the higher seeds in this group were both upset on Monday, Ons Jabeur and Jessica Pegula will play each other to secure their first win, while Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka will do battle to remain undefeated. As per the WTA, Wednesday’s advancement and eliminations possibilities are as follows:
- If Sakkari wins in straights, she advances.
- If Sakkari and Pegula both win, Sakkari advances and Jabeur is eliminated.
- If Sabalenka and Jabeur both win, Sabalenka advances and Pegula is eliminated.
- If Pegula loses in straights, she is eliminated.
Each day, this preview will analyze the most intriguing matchup from both the WTA Finals and the ATP Paris Masters, while highlighting the other matches on the schedules. Wednesday’s play in Paris begins at 11:00am local time, while play in Fort Worth begins at 3:00pm local time.
Tommy Paul vs Rafael Nadal – Not Before 7:30pm on Court Central in Paris
Despite dealing with injuries throughout the season, Nadal is 38-5 with four titles, including two Majors. But since withdrawing from the Wimbledon semifinals, he’s only played five singles matches in four months. Paul has collected 36 wins this year, but went just 3-3 in October. However, he does own two victories in 2022 over top five opposition (Zverev, Alcaraz), both on hard courts. Their only prior matchup occurred earlier this season in Acapulco, with Rafa prevailing in straight sets. Based on Nadal’s lack of match play, and at only one of two Masters 1000 tournaments he’s never won, an upset on Wednesday would not be shocking. But Rafa has never failed to reach the quarterfinals or better in his eight appearances in Bercy, and he’s continued to find ways to win this year, often without being in top form.
Maria Sakkari (5) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (7) – Not Before 7:00pm in Fort Worth
Sakkari overcame Pegula in two tiebreaks on Monday, while Sabalenka outlasted Jabeur in a grueling three-setter. Both Maria and Aryna share a common bond: suffering some heartbreaking losses in semifinals across the past two seasons. Sakkari lost two Major semifinals last year, even holding a match point at Roland Garros against eventual champion Barbora Krejcikova. She also went down in defeat in the semis of this event a year ago. Sabalenka has now lost three Slam semis, all of which ended 6-4 in the third. Aryna is 4-2 against Maria, with all six matches taking place on hard courts. The most recent one was a year ago at this same event, when Sakkari was victorious during round-robin play in three sets. But based on their history, as well as Sabalenka’s come-from-behind win over Jabeur in a high-quality affair, I give a confident Aryna the slight edge on Wednesday.
Other Notable Matches on Wednesday:
Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Dan Evans – Tsitsipas is 56-21 this season, yet has only accumulated two titles despite seven appearances in finals. He is 3-0 against Evans, with the Brit managing only 12 games across their six sets contested.
Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Alex de Minaur – Medvedev is 45-15 in 2022, and is coming off a title run last week in Vienna. De Minaur took out Sebastian Korda after an extended late-night battle on Monday night. Daniil leads their head-to-head 4-0.
Mikael Ymer (Q) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (8) – Auger-Aliassime is the hottest player on tour, with 13 consecutive wins, three titles in as many weeks, and 86 straight service holds. He is 1-0 against Ymer, having defeated him in four sets last year at Wimbledon.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka – Alcaraz holds a significant 830-point lead over Nadal in the race for the year-end No.1. He is 55-12 on the year, though went just 3-2 in October. Nishioka was the champion in Seoul a month ago.
Taylor Fritz (9) vs. Gilles Simon (WC) – Fritz needs to win the title this week to qualify for the ATP Finals. A retiring Simon came back from a set and 3-5 down on Monday to upset Andy Murray and extend his career by at least one more match. They have split two previous meetings.
Hubert Hurkacz (10) vs. Holger Rune – Like Fritz, Hurkacz needs to win the title to qualify for Turin. Rune defeated Stan Wawrinka in a tight three-setter on Tuesday evening.
Ons Jabeur (2) vs. Jessica Pegula (3) – Jabeur is 3-2 against Pegula, and claimed both of their encounters this season. Their most prominent matchup was this year in the final of Madrid, where Ons prevailed in three sets.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play at the WTA Finals is here, and the Paris Masters schedule is here.