Nick Kyrgios vs Novak Djokovic | Wimbledon 2022 Final preview - UBITENNIS
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Nick Kyrgios vs Novak Djokovic | Wimbledon 2022 Final preview

A match too crazy too call!

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image via twitter.com/wimbledon

After 10 years Kyrgios is again in a Wimbledon final: in 2012 the Australian played and won the junior doubles final, enjoying the victory of his idol Federer the very same year on Center Court; today he will instead take the field to play the final against Djokovic. The Serbian, although showing only flashes of his best tennis, arrived as expected at the final stop. Perhaps the world of esports will have to wait a little longer (Kyrgios had been chosen by Sony as a testimonial for the launch of playstation 5 in Australia and had declared “I think that, once I reach 10 years of career, I will devote myself to video games.”)

But in the real world, has he got more chances to clinch the title than in the virtual world?

According to the betting sites, the favorite is obviously Djokovic, while the odds for Kyrgios are higher than 4:1, a considerable gap for a Grand Slam final. However, according to the Wimbledon power index (a service developed by IBM, as a technological partner), a slight advantage is given to Kyrgios

Ubitennis will leave it to you to decide, from our part we will provide some historical data and a few interpretations.

Head to Head and Big match attitude: these are some of Djokovic’s thoughts after his win against Norrie;

He’s a big-match player (refer to Kyrgios). If you see his career, the best tennis he’s played is always against the top guys,” Djokovic said. “That’s why we all respect him because we know what he can come up with. It’s going to be [an] interesting match.” 

Kyrgios in a single match can beat anyone, that’s arguably something over everybody agrees. Our gut tells us that Djokovic’s statement is correct since we all know how Kyrgios has been able to beat anyone in the past; also he is one of the few who can show a positive record against Djokovic. But it is worth remembering that both matches date back to the first half of 2017, perhaps the worst period of Djokovic’s career, conditioned by a wrist injury and by a poor focus, that led him to the abandonment of his historic coach Marian Vajda. Since then there have been no more direct clashes, and therefore it will be interesting to see also from a tactical point of view how the match will develop. Finally, a bit of fact-checking: on grass Kyrgios’ record against the top 20 is 6 won and 10 lost.

5th set attitude: Given the ups and downs shown by Djokovic against Sinner and Norrie and the ability of Kyrgios to come up with great tennis peaks, the hypothesis that the match can go to the distance is not so strange. Of course, Djokovic knows how to play the games in the 5th set, the tennis land of fatigue and tension: the Serbian boasts a record of 37 wins and 10 losses in the fifth set, and in particular here at Wimbledon posts an unreal 10-1; the only defeat dates back to 2006 when a still teenager Nole lost to Mario Ancic. In short, if the match were to go to the fifth, we would not bet against the Serbian.

On the other hand, Kyrgios’ career in 5 set matches is much shorter. In the 13 matches that has gone to the distance, he won on 9 occasions; to be fair against not-so-great opponents; Nick managed to get out of the hole of the two sets of disadvantage only 1 time, a feat that Nole has managed 7 times.

Grass court attitude: If we look at Djokovic’s percentages on grass we realize how ridiculously good he is. If we look at the restricted club of players who have won more than 100 matches on grass in the open era, Nole is here:

Grass: Matches Won
1. Roger Federer = 86.9% (192-29)
2. Pete Sampras = 85.71% (90/105)
3. Novak Djokovic = 85.0% (102-18)

Federer and Sampras have built their grass-court status from the serving side, while Djokovic leads the duo when returning, adding a solid performance on serve

Grass: Service Points Won
No 5: Pete Sampras = 72.93%
No. 8: Roger Federer = 72.35%
No. 23: Novak Djokovic = 70.02%

Grass: Return Points Won
No. 19: Novak Djokovic = 39.60%
No. 47: Roger Federer = 38.24%
No. 81: Pete Sampras = 37.14%

Talking about Kyrgios, it is arguably better to concentrate on this tournament, conisdering that he never won a tournament on grass in his career

Tactical key of the match: the Aussie’s serve: in some ways the player’s profile is not so dissimilar to Berrettini’s, and we know how Nole has a superhuman ability to demise big servers. Assuming that Kyrgios will replicate the first serve performance shown in this tournament we could expect 68% of first serve in, with a rate of success of 79%; small problem: Djokovic return. During his career the Serbian was able to display this kind of numebers:

1st serve return point won2nd serve return point won
31.10%53.30%

If we had to choose a proxy match for tomorrow’s final, maybe we could choose Medvedev – Kyrgios at the 2022 Australian Open; in that match, these were some words from Kyrgios:

“I was landing consistent 220-230kph serves close to the lines, what more can I do??’ “The way I played today I would win against 95% of the tour.”

The feeling is therefore that within each set we should pay attention to the success rate of Kyrgios’ first serve; if the guy from Canberra manages to hold on and maintain the numbers shown during the tournament it is likely that we will have a final worthy of Wimbledon center court; otherwise, if the percentages were to diverge significantly downwards, it is evident that we would see a slaughter. Finally, a side effect of the effectiveness of the first serve is to allow the Australian a plan B against Nole returns on his second serve. If Kyrgios manages to have a high combined ratio of the first serves in and won, the Australian could be tempted to go for it also on second serves. Just make a simple calculation: if the percentage of success on the second serve is lower than 68% * 79% then it is better to try hard and cross your fingers. In our case the threshold would be around 53%, curiously exactly the same number Nick held over the course of the tournament in terms of second serves won. And honestly, if Kyrgios succeeds without going all-in on the second serve, managing to win more than half of the points it would seem like a miracle (also given the statistics of the Serbian).

In the end just a small recap of the past Wimbledon finals, it’s a long time since such a low ranked player reaches the final

nameseasonmean agewinner ageWINNERrankLOOSER_ALIASloser_rankscoreMEAN_of_FINALIST_RANK
Wimbledon202129.734.11N. DJOKOVIC1M. BERRETTINI96-7 (5) 6-4 6-4 6-35
Wimbledon201935.0032.11N. DJOKOVIC1R. FEDERER37-6(5) 1-6 7-6(4) 4-6 13-12(3) RE2
Wimbledon201831.6231.11N. DJOKOVIC21K. ANDERSON86-2 6-2 7-6(3)14.5
Wimbledon201732.3335.90R. FEDERER5M. CILIC66-3 6-1 6-45.5
Wimbledon201627.3129.12A. MURRAY2M. RAONIC76-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2)4.5
Wimbledon201531.0028.10N. DJOKOVIC1R. FEDERER27-6(1) 6-7(10) 6-4 6-31.5
Wimbledon201429.9827.09N. DJOKOVIC2R. FEDERER46-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4) 5-7 6-43
Wimbledon201326.1026.11A. MURRAY2N. DJOKOVIC16-4 7-5 6-41.5
Wimbledon201228.0030.88R. FEDERER3A. MURRAY44-6 7-5 6-3 6-43.5
Wimbledon201124.5624.08N. DJOKOVIC2R. NADAL16-4 6-1 1-6 6-31.5
Wimbledon201024.4024.05R. NADAL1T. BERDYCH136-3 7-5 6-47
Wimbledon200927.3427.87R. FEDERER2A. RODDICK65-7 7-6(6) 7-6(5) 3-6 16-144
Wimbledon200824.4722.06R. NADAL2R. FEDERER16-4 6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(8) 9-71.5
Wimbledon200723.4725.88R. FEDERER1R. NADAL27-6(7) 4-6 7-6(3) 2-6 6-21.5
Wimbledon200622.4724.88R. FEDERER1R. NADAL26-0 7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-31.5
Wimbledon200523.3423.87R. FEDERER1A. RODDICK46-2 7-6(2) 6-42.5
Wimbledon200422.3422.87R. FEDERER1A. RODDICK24-6 7-5 7-6(3) 6-41.5
Wimbledon200324.2521.87R. FEDERER5M. PHILIPPOUSSIS487-6(5) 6-2 7-6(3)26.5
Wimbledon200220.9021.33L. HEWITT1D. NALBANDIAN326-1 6-3 6-216.5
Wimbledon200129.1429.78G. IVANISEVIC125P. RAFTER106-3 3-6 6-3 2-6 9-767.5
Wimbledon200028.1828.87P. SAMPRAS3P. RAFTER216-7(10) 7-6(5) 6-4 6-212
Wimbledon199928.5027.86P. SAMPRAS1A. AGASSI46-3 6-4 7-52.5
Wimbledon199826.8226.86P. SAMPRAS1G. IVANISEVIC256-7(2) 7-6(9) 6-4 3-6 6-213
Wimbledon199726.9425.86P. SAMPRAS1C. PIOLINE446-4 6-2 6-422.5
Wimbledon199625.7824.55R. KRAJICEK13M. WASHINGTON206-3 6-4 6-316.5
Wimbledon199525.7323.87P. SAMPRAS2B. BECKER46-7(5) 6-2 6-4 6-23
Wimbledon199422.8122.86P. SAMPRAS1G. IVANISEVIC57-6(2) 7-6(5) 6-03
Wimbledon199322.3521.86P. SAMPRAS1J. COURIER27-6(3) 7-6(6) 3-6 6-31.5
Wimbledon199221.4622.15A. AGASSI14G. IVANISEVIC86-7(8) 6-4 6-4 1-6 6-411
Wimbledon199123.1322.68M. STICH7B. BECKER26-4 7-6(4) 6-44.5

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Wimbledon Daily Preview: Novak Djokovic Plays Carlos Alcaraz for the Gentlemen’s Singles Championship

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Carlos Alcaraz after winning his semifinal on Friday (twitter.com/wimbledon)

Day 14 at The Championships hosts the championship matches in gentlemen’s singles and mixed doubles.

One year ago, Novak Djokovic was on a 34 match Wimbledon win streak, playing for his fifth consecutive title, and had not lost a match on Centre Court in a full decade.  But in a spectacular five-hour five-setter, Carlos Alcaraz upset the all-time great to win his first Wimbledon title.  On Sunday, we get the rematch, as Djokovic looks to avenge that painful loss, and Alcaraz looks to defend a Major title, and win back-to-back Majors, for the first time.


Carlos Alcaraz (3) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – 2:00pm on Centre Court

They followed up last year’s championship match here with another fantastic final just a month later in Cincinnati, where Djokovic saved championship point to eventually win in a third-set tiebreak, and after nearly four hours of play.  Novak would go on three weeks later to win the US Open, while Carlitos was not the same player for some time.  Alcaraz would not reach another final at any event for over six months, until this past March in Indian Wells. 

Despite a few surprising losses, and an injury that disrupted his season, Alcaraz is now a strong 32-6 on the year, and a superb 17-1 at Majors.  Carlitos has been able to quickly rebound from upsets at smaller events, like his loss to Jack Draper a few weeks ago at Queen’s Club, and up his level for the big events.  He’s dropped five sets through six matches, most of which have contained some sloppy play at times, yet Carlitos has played his best when it mattered most to reach his fourth Major final.  And he’s 3-0 thus far in Major finals.

2024 has been a surprisingly subpar season in the illustrious career of Djokovic.  Not only has he not won a title to date, he hadn’t advanced to a final until now.  Playing a more limited schedule, he’s just 23-6 this season.  And it was just a month ago that he was forced to withdraw from the Roland Garros quarterfinals after suffering a knee injury, which required surgery and put his Wimbledon status in doubt.  Yet Novak has recovered almost miraculously, dropping only two sets to this stage, though he did receive a quarterfinal walkover of his own from an injured Alex de Minaur.

Overall Djokovic is 3-2 against Alcaraz, and they’ve split two meetings at Majors, both of which took place a year ago.  In the 2023 Roland Garros semifinals, Carlitos started cramping after just two sets of play, and provided little resistance in sets three and four.  That made his five-set victory in this final a month later all the more surprising.

Novak has not appeared to be significantly hampered by his surgically-repaired knee, though there’s no way it can be 100%.  So if another five-setter takes place on Sunday, that has to favor Carlitos, especially since he is an amazing 12-1 when pushed to five sets in his young career.

But the Djokovic CV at this tournament, and at this stage of Majors, is beyond formidable.  Since the start of The Championships in 2014, he is 59-3 at SW19.  And during the same span at all Majors, he is 42-8 in semifinals and finals.  Novak just very rarely loses matches like this, especially on Centre Court.

On a that surface usually favors the aggressor, Djokovic has been able to change that narrative with his stifling defense and court coverage.  However, Alcaraz is one of the only players Djokovic has ever faced who can match him defensively, and at times dictate play against him with his risk-taking style.  We saw here a year ago just how frustrated Novak became by Carlitos’ game, damaging the net post by breaking his racket against it after getting broken in the fifth set.

Yet as many have mentioned these last two weeks, Djokovic “has that look about him,” meaning the steely determination and confidence that he was lacking during the first six months of this year appear to be back.  He is extremely motivated to reassert himself atop the game, in a season where the new generation of Alcaraz and Sinner won the first two Majors. 

If Carlitos gets off to another slow start on Sunday (he’s lost the first set in three of his six matches thus far), or suffer lapses in his level again, Novak will take advantage of that better than any of the defending champion’s previous opponents.  And while he’ll surely do so at some point in his career, until Alcaraz defends a Major title, or wins back-to-back Majors, it’s hard to favor him to do so.  I’m backing Djokovic to win his eighth Wimbledon title, and his historical 25th Major singles title, the most of all-time.


Other Notable Matches on Sunday:

Santiago Gonzalez and Giuliana Olmos vs. Jan Zielinski Su-wei Hsieh (7) – The Mexican team of Gonzalez and Olmos are playing for their first Major title, as Olmos is 0-1 in Major finals, while 41-year-old Gonzalez is 0-4.  Zielinski and Su-wei won this year’s Australian Open as a team, the first Major title of Zielinski’s career, while Su-wei has now won eight between women’s doubles and mixed, and is 8-1 in Major finals.


Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Wimbledon Daily Preview: Jasmine Paolini Plays Barbora Krejcikova for the Ladies’ Singles Championship

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Jasmine Paolini after winning her semifinal on Thursday (twitter.com/wimbledon)

Day 13 at The Championships hosts the championship matches in ladies’ singles, ladies’ doubles, and gentlemen’s doubles.

It’s cliché, and usually untrue, to say “No one expected these two finalists.”  But in this case, it is absolutely true.  Prior to this fortnight, Jasmine Paolini had never won a match at The Championships.  And Barbora Krejcikova arrived at SW19 with a losing record on the year.  Yet both will play in their second Major singles final on Saturday, after inspired play during this tournament.


Barbora Krejcikova (31) vs. Jasmine Paolini (7) – 2:00pm on Centre Court

After failing to advance beyond the second round in her first 16 appearances at Majors, Paolini is now 15-2 in her last three, and is the first WTA player to reach the final of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon since Serena Williams in 2016.  Jasmine is 30-12 on the year, and has won 14 of her last 16 matches.  She has been taken to three sets twice during this event, most recently outlasting Donna Vekic in a third-set tiebreak during Thursday’s semifinals.

Krejcikova has also required three sets in two of her six matches to this stage, upsetting 2022 champion Elena Rybakina in the semis.  That was the third win in a row for Barbora over a higher-seed, after ousting two other big hitters, Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko.  She’s accomplished all this despite being just 7-9 this season before this tournament began.  Injuries have plagued her career since her 2021 Roland Garros singles title, including a back injury earlier this year. 

Paolini is 2-4 lifetime in singles finals at WTA level, while Krejcikova is 7-5.  However, when you consider their appearances in Major finals between singles and doubles, Paolini is 0-2, having lost both the women’s singles and doubles finals last month in Paris, while Krejcikova is an amazing 11-1.  That’s a huge contrast in success at Grand Slam level.

These players also possess contrasting styles.  Paolini has been crushing her forehand, using it to come forward and show off her great hands at the net.  Krejcikova has a good serve, as well as both power and guile on her groundstrokes.  She loves using her slice to keep her opponents off-balance.  However, that will be more difficult to do against such a great mover like Jasmine.  And Barbora’s forehand has become unreliable in some crucial moments during this fortnight, which the Italian can target.

But on this surface, and considering her history in Major finals, I give the edge to Krejcikova to win her second Major singles title.  Plus, Barbora has already won two ladies’ doubles titles on this same court.  And she would surely cherish the chance to honor her late coach and mentor Jana Novotna by holding the Venus Rosewater Dish aloft on Centre Court, just as Jana did in 1998.


Other Notable Matches on Saturday:

Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson (15) vs. Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten – This is a fourth Major final in men’s doubles for Purcell, who won this title two years ago alongside another Aussie, Matthew Ebden.  Thompson had never advanced beyond the fourth round of a Major in either men’s singles or doubles until this run.  Patten is also a Major final debutante, while Heliovaara won last year’s US Open in mixed doubles.

Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (4) vs. Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe (2) – Siniakova is playing for the ninth Major title in women’s doubles, while Townsend is playing for her first, after going 0-2 in previous finals.  Dabrowski and Routliffe are the reigning US Open champions, and Routliffe will become the new World No.1 in women’s doubles on Monday, regardless of Saturday’s result.


Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.

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England’s Euros Final Clash With Spain Will Not Be Shown At Wimbledon

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Crowds of spectators watch live action on the Big Screen on the Hill at The Championships 2023. Held at The All England Lawn Tennis Club, Wimbledon. Day 7 Sunday 09/07/2023. Photo credit: AELTC/Adam Warner.

Football might be coming home on Sunday but those attending Wimbledon will have to leave the site if they want to watch the game. 

Gareth Southgate’s side takes on Spain for the chance to win their first major trophy since the 1966 World Cup, as well as their first of any sort on international territory. Their semi-final win over the Netherlands was the most-watched TV programme this year so far in the UK with a peak audience of 20.3 million on ITV. This figure doesn’t include those who watch the game online via ITVX or in public places. Broadcasters are hopeful that the final, which will be shown on both the BBC and ITV, could break the 30 million mark for viewers. 

Despite the highly-anticipated sporting event, the communications department of the All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) has confirmed to Ubitennis that they will not be showing the Euros match on their large screen, even if the matches finish by 8 pm. The men’s final is scheduled to begin six hours earlier at 2 pm local time. 

The AELTC explains that part of their reasons for doing so is due to the huge cleanup operation that will be taking place immediately after the event. Some of the equipment used at the Grand Slam needs to be packed and moved elsewhere to be used for the Paris Olympic Games. 

Whilst some football fans attending Wimbledon might be disappointed, the AELTC has always stated from day one that they don’t intend to show football matches with their sole focus being on tennis. 

We’re very much focused on the tennis, this has been the case in the past,” AELTC Chief executive Sally Bolton said on the first day of this year’s tournament.
“We won’t be showing the football on any of the screens here. We’re confident that everyone who’s coming here will want to watch the tennis. 
There will be no special arrangements.”

It remains to be seen if there will be a big exodus of fans from Wimbledon on Sunday evening before England’s tie with Spain. However, this depends on the length of the men’s final which last year lasted almost five hours. It is roughly a 30-minute walk to Wimbledon train station where many pubs nearby will be showing the football.  

Across the UK some schools are allowing children to start at a later time on Monday due to the Euros. Businesses such as Tesco and Lidl are making changes to their opening times. Meanwhile, the Wireless Festival is ending early and World Matchplay Darts has also moved to an earlier time.

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