Day 14 at The Championships hosts the championship matches in gentlemen’s singles and mixed doubles.
One year ago, Novak Djokovic was on a 34 match Wimbledon win streak, playing for his fifth consecutive title, and had not lost a match on Centre Court in a full decade. But in a spectacular five-hour five-setter, Carlos Alcaraz upset the all-time great to win his first Wimbledon title. On Sunday, we get the rematch, as Djokovic looks to avenge that painful loss, and Alcaraz looks to defend a Major title, and win back-to-back Majors, for the first time.
Carlos Alcaraz (3) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – 2:00pm on Centre Court
They followed up last year’s championship match here with another fantastic final just a month later in Cincinnati, where Djokovic saved championship point to eventually win in a third-set tiebreak, and after nearly four hours of play. Novak would go on three weeks later to win the US Open, while Carlitos was not the same player for some time. Alcaraz would not reach another final at any event for over six months, until this past March in Indian Wells.
Despite a few surprising losses, and an injury that disrupted his season, Alcaraz is now a strong 32-6 on the year, and a superb 17-1 at Majors. Carlitos has been able to quickly rebound from upsets at smaller events, like his loss to Jack Draper a few weeks ago at Queen’s Club, and up his level for the big events. He’s dropped five sets through six matches, most of which have contained some sloppy play at times, yet Carlitos has played his best when it mattered most to reach his fourth Major final. And he’s 3-0 thus far in Major finals.
Novak Djokovic after winning his semifinal on Friday (twitter.com/wimbledon)
2024 has been a surprisingly subpar season in the illustrious career of Djokovic. Not only has he not won a title to date, he hadn’t advanced to a final until now. Playing a more limited schedule, he’s just 23-6 this season. And it was just a month ago that he was forced to withdraw from the Roland Garros quarterfinals after suffering a knee injury, which required surgery and put his Wimbledon status in doubt. Yet Novak has recovered almost miraculously, dropping only two sets to this stage, though he did receive a quarterfinal walkover of his own from an injured Alex de Minaur.
Overall Djokovic is 3-2 against Alcaraz, and they’ve split two meetings at Majors, both of which took place a year ago. In the 2023 Roland Garros semifinals, Carlitos started cramping after just two sets of play, and provided little resistance in sets three and four. That made his five-set victory in this final a month later all the more surprising.
Alcaraz earlier this week (twitter.com/wimbledon)
Novak has not appeared to be significantly hampered by his surgically-repaired knee, though there’s no way it can be 100%. So if another five-setter takes place on Sunday, that has to favor Carlitos, especially since he is an amazing 12-1 when pushed to five sets in his young career.
But the Djokovic CV at this tournament, and at this stage of Majors, is beyond formidable. Since the start of The Championships in 2014, he is 59-3 at SW19. And during the same span at all Majors, he is 42-8 in semifinals and finals. Novak just very rarely loses matches like this, especially on Centre Court.
On a that surface usually favors the aggressor, Djokovic has been able to change that narrative with his stifling defense and court coverage. However, Alcaraz is one of the only players Djokovic has ever faced who can match him defensively, and at times dictate play against him with his risk-taking style. We saw here a year ago just how frustrated Novak became by Carlitos’ game, damaging the net post by breaking his racket against it after getting broken in the fifth set.
Djokovic earlier this fortnight (twitter.com/wimbledon)
Yet as many have mentioned these last two weeks, Djokovic “has that look about him,” meaning the steely determination and confidence that he was lacking during the first six months of this year appear to be back. He is extremely motivated to reassert himself atop the game, in a season where the new generation of Alcaraz and Sinner won the first two Majors.
If Carlitos gets off to another slow start on Sunday (he’s lost the first set in three of his six matches thus far), or suffer lapses in his level again, Novak will take advantage of that better than any of the defending champion’s previous opponents. And while he’ll surely do so at some point in his career, until Alcaraz defends a Major title, or wins back-to-back Majors, it’s hard to favor him to do so. I’m backing Djokovic to win his eighth Wimbledon title, and his historical 25th Major singles title, the most of all-time.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Santiago Gonzalez and Giuliana Olmos vs. Jan Zielinski Su-wei Hsieh (7) – The Mexican team of Gonzalez and Olmos are playing for their first Major title, as Olmos is 0-1 in Major finals, while 41-year-old Gonzalez is 0-4. Zielinski and Su-wei won this year’s Australian Open as a team, the first Major title of Zielinski’s career, while Su-wei has now won eight between women’s doubles and mixed, and is 8-1 in Major finals.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
