Today either Dominic Thiem or Daniil Medvedev will win this event for the first time.
A year ago, Dominic Thiem was just a few points from winning this tournament, going down in defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas in a third set tiebreak of the championship match. Thiem went on to reach his third Major final at January’s Australian Open, but couldn’t hold on to a two-sets-to-one-lead. At the next Slam, he would finally win his first Major title, in a dramatic, nerve-wracking five-set final against Sascha Zverev. For the second consecutive year, he’s reached the championship match of this event after beating two of “The Big Three.” Thiem defeated Rafael Nadal in a high-quality affair during round-robin play, and overcame Novak Djokovic in yesterday’s semifinals despite blowing four match points in the second set tiebreak, and despite going down 0-4 in the final set tiebreak.
A year ago, Daniil Medvedev came into this event on a 29-4 run, a stretch that saw him win three titles and reach six consecutive finals. But the fatigued Russian went 0-3 in his ATP Finals debut. In this abbreviated 2020 season, he did not advance to a tournament final until just two weeks ago, when he won first title in over a year at the Paris Masters. Now he’s on a nine-match winning streak, having gone undefeated in the round-robin stage. And just yesterday, he earned his first victory over Rafael Nadal in comeback fashion, after Nadal served for the match in the second set.
Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Daniil Medvedev (4)
Thiem is 3-1 against Medvedev overall, 2-1 on hard courts, and 1-0 indoors. Their first meeting was two years ago in Daniil’s home country, where Dominic survived 7-6 in the third. Last summer in Canada, Medvedev easily prevailed, losing only four games. And in this year’s US Open semifinals, Dominic was victorious in straight sets. Neither man will be fully fresh today, coming off semifinal matches just 24 hours ago against the top two players in the world, each of which approached three hours in length. Thiem’s encounter with Djokovic seemed slightly more draining, both physically and emotionally.
When they met two months ago in New York, Medvedev got off to a terrible start, losing the first set 6-2. He struck almost twice as many errors as winners, winning only 65% of first serve points and a dismal 25% on his second serve. But this week he’s served excellently, averaging 79% of first serve points won. And some easy service games have enabled Daniil to apply more pressure to his opponents’ serve. The result has been an average of over three breaks per match, Comparatively, Thiem has broken his opponent’s serve only once per match. But an underrated aspect of the Austrian’s game is his ability to protect his own serve. Outside of his dead rubber against Andrey Rublev, Dominic has only been broken two times in three matches. And that includes clashes with two of the sport’s all-time great returners: Nadal and Djokovic.
Thiem should be slightly favored based on their head-to-head, as well as his considerable edge in experience. Regardless of the winner, let’s hope these two men provide us with an extended, enthralling encounter. With the Australian tennis summer in doubt, it may be quite awhile before we see professional tennis of this caliber.
Doubles on Day 8:
In the doubles championship, it’s Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic (5) vs. Jurgen Melzer and Edouard Roger-Vasselin (7). Yesterday in the semifinals, Melzer and Roger-Vasselin came back from 1-7 down in the match tiebreak and saved a match point to advance. Koolhof and Mektic prevailed on Saturday in straight sets.
Full order of play is here.
