Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a highly-anticipated championship match with historical implications. However, that opportunity is not promised for either man.
Rafael Nadal may be 98-2 at Roland Garros, but he’s 0-1 against Diego Schwartzman this past month. While Nadal is yet to lose a set this fortnight, he’s still not as match tough as he likes to be, with only eight matches played since February. And Schwartzman is brimming with confidence, coming off an epic, over five-hour victory against US Open champion Dominic Thiem in the last round.
Novak Djokovic may be 36-1 in 2020, but he was clearly in distress from neck and arm pain during his quarterfinal. And Djokovic remains edgy on court, as he was consistently yelling in frustration two days ago. Plus, he’s twice been defeated by Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has won 15 consecutive sets since the opening round.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Diego Schwartzman (12)
20 days in Rome, Schwartzman earned his first career victory over Nadal in his tenth try. And he did so in convincing fashion: 6-2, 7-5. Diego would go on to reach his first Masters 1,000 final in Rome. Now three weeks later in Paris, he’s advanced to his first Major semifinal. He had not dropped a set this fortnight until his dramatic clash with Thiem in the quarters. As tight as that match was, Schwartzman was the better player throughout, and had opportunities to win each set before tightening up at some key moments. While that match was physically and emotionally demanding, Diego has the benefit of two full days rest.
However, Nadal’s 98-2 record at this event, and his 9-1 record against Schwartzman, speak volumes. While Rafa’s yet to be really tested thus far, and is lacking the amount of reps he prefers leading into a Major, he remains a heavy favorite. Through five matches, Nadal has broken serve 32 times, and has averaged nine more winners than unforced errors per match. Despite Diego’s current momentum, defeating Rafa at Roland Garros remains tennis’ most difficult task.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5)
Djokovic leads their head-to-head 3-2, and claimed their only previous match on clay in straight sets. This will be their first meeting at a Major. It’s a second Slam semifinal for Tsitsipas, nearly two years after his first. The 22-year-old has overcome heartbreaking losses over the past 16 months, namely at this event last year and at last month’s US Open. But Stefanos has continually bounced back promptly. Since dropping the first two sets in the opening round, he’s only been broken three times over 15 sets.
Djokovic hadn’t dropped a set himself until his quarterfinal against Pablo Carreno Busta, when neck and arm discomfort clearly impacted his performance. He also experienced neck pain at August’s Western & Southern Open, with his coach Goran Ivanisevic even giving him a 5% chance of being able to play. But Novak did play, and go on to win the event. There’s no way of knowing if this is a similar issue, or if Djokovic will recuperate as quickly. But without substantial evidence that his body will hamper him, Novak should still be favored today. His ability to turn defense to offense, thanks to his movement, flexibility, and intelligence, should outdo the shot-making of Tsitsipas over the course of five sets on this surface.
Other Notable Matches on Day 13:
In the first women’s double semifinal, three-time Major champions Timea Babos and Kristina Mladenovic (2) vs. Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova (4), who are two-time Major champions.
In the second semifinal, recent Istanbul champs Alexa Guarachi and Desirae Krawczyk (14) vs. Nicole Melichar and Iga Swiatek. Iga is of course is the breakout star of this tournament, and has already advanced to the women’s singles final.
Friday’s full schedule is here.
