One semifinal features two Major champions, while the other is one of the unlikeliest matchups ever at this stage of a Slam.
A year ago at this tournament, Sofia Kenin made her breakthrough, upsetting Serena Williams to reach the round of 16 at a Major for the first time. Now she’s just two matches away from her second Slam title of the year. Petra Kvitova is into her first Roland Garros semifinal in eight years, at the same event where she made an emotional return in 2017 after a career-threatening hand injury at the hands of a home intruder. The two-time Wimbledon champion is looking to reach her fourth championship match at a Major.
19-year-old Iga Swiatek has already built an impressive resume since making her Slam debut just last year, reaching the second week in three of her first seven Majors. She has dominated the competition to reach the semifinals in both singles and doubles, without dropping a set in either discipline. 23-year-old Nadia Podoroska had never won a match at a Slam prior to this fortnight, and is the first qualifier to ever reach the Roland Garros semifinals. But the Argentine knows how to win, with an astonishing 42 victories at all levels in this abbreviated season.
Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Petra Kvitova (7)
Kivtova leads their head-to-head 2-0. Petra prevailed in three sets on a hard court two years ago in Miami, and in straight sets on clay last year in Madrid. But since that last meeting nearly 18 months ago, Kenin has raised her game considerably, becoming one of the strongest and most consistent competitors on tour. Kvitova has reached this stage much more comfortably, without dropping a set. Kenin’s path has been much more challenging, as four of her five matches have gone the distance. And the American just played her quarterfinal yesterday, while Kvitova had a day off before today’s semifinal. Despite struggling a bit throughout this tournament, the reigning Australian Open champion has played her best tennis when she needed it. That was especially evident yesterday against Danielle Collins, when Kenin dominated the third set 6-0, hitting 14 winners and only five unforced errors in that set. Her level has steadily improved match-to-match. Since the third round, she’s averaged 14 winners per set, with 10 unforced errors.
In taking a closer look at Kvitova’s numbers, she’s played well, but not great. Through five matches, she’s won 67% of first serve points, which is modest for one of the WTA’s best servers. And Petra’s been broken 11 times. But putting the stats aside, Kvitova lefty serve and forehand are hard to attack, and she should be considered the slight favorite. Kenin can ill afford to fall behind as she has multiple times this fortnight. As per Tennis Abstract, Kvitova wins 91% of matches in her career when she wins the first set. The deciding factor may be who better handles the pressure of this moment, knowing whoever wins will be the favorite in Saturday’s final.
Iga Swiatek vs. Nadia Podoroska (Q)
This will be the first career meeting for these first-time Slam semifinalists. Swiatek has been untouchable this fortnight. She’s averaged just two games lost per set. Iga even upset top-seeded Simona Halep, allowing the 2018 champion just three games. There really has been no penetrable weakness in her game. Her net play has been stellar, winning 80% of points when coming forward. And her groundstrokes have controlled the rallies, averaging seven more winners than errors per match despite hitting with significant power.
Podoroska’s run has been nearly as impressive, winning eight straight matches since the first round of qualifying 16 days ago. And she’s dropped only two of 18 sets contested. However, she does not possess the same firepower or craftiness as her teenage opponent. And while you certainly can’t refer to Swiatek as a veteran, she has far more experience at a Major than the Argentine. As per the WTA, a qualifier has never reached a Grand Slam final, so Nadia is trying to break entirely new ground. A year ago at this event, Marketa Vondrousova was a shocking 19-year-old finalist. In the opening round this year, Swiatek defeated Vondrousova. Perhaps there’s some symmetry there, as 19-year-old Iga is the favorite to advance to this year’s championship match.
Other Notable Matches on Day 12:
In the men’s doubles semifinals, 2019 Wimbledon and US Open champions Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah (1) vs. Mate Pavic and Bruno Soares (7), the 2020 US Open champions.
In the second semifinal, defending Roland Garros champions Kevin Krawietz and and Andreas Mies (8) vs. Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic (9), finalists at last month’s US Open.
Thursday’s full schedule is here.
