Either Dominic Thiem or Sascha Zverev will win their first Major title on Sunday.
Dominic Thiem spent much of his career categorized as a clay court specialist who struggled outside the terra boute. The 27-year-old has claimed 10 clay titles, and reached the semifinals or better the last four years at Roland Garros. But over the last few years, his results have drastically improved on hard courts. He was the champion at Indian Wells last season, and a finalist at both the ATP Finals and the Australian Open. Thiem has now reached his second consecutive Major final, and his fourth overall. As he mentioned in Friday’s post-match interview, he is looking to avoid joining players like Andy Murray in losing their first four Slam finals. This is the best opportunity he’s had yet, in his first Major final without Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic as opposition.
Sascha Zverev has long been expected to be a future Major champion. But his previous performances at the Slams were disappointing. Between 2017 and 2019, Zverev won three Masters 1,000 titles, was a finalist at three other Masters events, and claimed the 2018 ATP Finals. During that same span, he only reached two Major quarterfinals, both at Roland Garros. But that changed this year, when he advanced to his first semifinal in Melbourne. And now he has taken advantage of an open draw to reach his first championship match at a Major.
Dominic Thiem (2) vs. Sascha Zverev
These two friends have played nine times, with Thiem prevailing on seven of those occasions. Zverev’s only two victories have come in best-of-three matches. At Majors, Thiem is 3-0. On hard courts, Dominic leads 3-1, with Sascha’s win occurring four years ago. They also met at the most recent Major, with Thiem winning in four sets at January’s Australian Open. Based on their history, and their individual Slam experience, Thiem is the favorite. However, both men are well aware of that, which may impact their play. Dominic knows this is easily his best chance to win a Major, and that he’s expected to do so. And while a Slam final is new territory for Sascha, the German may play more freely knowing the pressure is more on Thiem. Unlike Friday’s semifinal against Pablo Carreno Busta, where Zverev played an extremely tight first two sets as the heavy favorite, I suspect he’ll be much tougher from the start today.
As ugly as that semifinal was, Sascha should be applauded for fighting back from two sets down. And notably, he’s reached his first Major final without his father/coach with him in New York, and without the presence of his team’s newest member, David Ferrer. While Zverev is surely in close contact with them, securing six wins without their attendance exhibits growth. But over the course of five sets, Thiem is usually the steadier player. Zverev can often regress to his passive, error-prone ways. And Sascha’s second serve remains an issue, especially under pressure. Through six rounds, Zverev has struck 49 double faults. That won’t work against a player who has broken serve 32 times during this fortnight. While the pressure will be more on Thiem, the Austrian has plenty of experience in the latter stages of Majors. Dominic is the favorite to become the ATP’s first maiden Slam winner since Marin Cilic at the 2014 US Open.
Five things to know about the final
- Thiem is seeking to become the second Austrian man to win a major title after Thomas Muster at the 1995 French Open.
- Zverev is the youngest major finalist in men’s tennis since Novak Djokovic at the 2010 US Open. Victory would make him the youngest Grand Slam winner since Juan Martin del Potro’s triumph in New York back in 2009.
- Whoever wins will become the 150th male player in tennis history to win their maiden major title. The last person to do so was Marin Cilic back in 2014.
- Heading into the final Zverev has spent a total of 17 hours and 16 minutes on the court during his six previous rounds. This is almost four hours more than Thiem’s tally of 13 hours and 28 minutes. Furthermore, the German has only faced one top-25 seed in his previous rounds compared to Thiem who has played three.
- Thiem leads their head-to-head 7-2 and has won all three of their previous meetings in grand slams.
The head-to-head breakdown
| Year | Event | Surface | RND | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Australian Open Australia | Outdoor Hard | SF | Dominic Thiem | 36 64 763 764 |
| 2019 | Nitto ATP Finals Great Britain | Indoor Hard | SF | Dominic Thiem | 75 63 |
| 2018 | Roland Garros France | Outdoor Clay | QF | Dominic Thiem | 64 62 61 |
| 2018 | ATP Masters 1000 Madrid Spain | Outdoor Clay | F | Alexander Zverev | 64 64 |
| 2017 | Rotterdam Netherlands | Indoor Hard | R32 | Dominic Thiem | 36 63 64 |
| 2016 | Beijing China | Outdoor Hard | R32 | Alexander Zverev | 46 61 63 |
| 2016 | Roland Garros France | Outdoor Clay | R32 | Dominic Thiem | 674 63 63 63 |
| 2016 | Nice France | Outdoor Clay | F | Dominic Thiem | 64 36 60 |
| 2016 | Munich Germany | Outdoor Clay | SF | Dominic Thiem | 46 62 63 |
