Wimbledon Gentlemen's Qualifying Singles: Who Can Come Through? - UBITENNIS
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Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Qualifying Singles: Who Can Come Through?

The Wimbledon starts with qualifying on Monday! Who will be the 16 qualifiers that make it to the main draw?

Jakub Bobro

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The top seed in the qualifying for Wimbledon is rather symbolic. The World No. 100 Alessandro Giannessi hasn’t played on grass since the last Wimbledon qualifying, where he lost to then No. 706 Joe Salisbury. It is safe to say that Giannessi will most likely not make it to the main draw. No. 26 seed Adrian Menendez-Maceiras lost the only match on grass he played this year, and qualified for Wimbledon only in 2012, 5 years ago. The unseeded players in the section are the real contenders – Sam Groth, Simone Bolelli, or Tobias Kamke will make the main draw. Groth – Bolelli is a popcorn first round which makes the broadcasters glad they purchased the streaming rights, even with the absence of Maria Sharapova. Bolelli entered with a protected ranking as he has been out of the tour with injury for 9 months. He hasn’t played on grass for over 2 years, but he made the Round of 32 on three previous occasions. I think Groth will come through this match and go on to qualify. He had a solid showing at the grass challengers, reaching semis at both. Groth’s best result is a 3rd Round, and he could replicate it with the right draw. Tobias Kamke will probably beat Menendez-Maceiras, but his journey will end with Groth. The veteran Aussie should manage to beat any of his potential final round opponents.
My Pick: Sam Groth

 

The qualifier from the second section will come from the match between 2nd seed Santiago Giraldo and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Giraldo reached the 3rd Round on 2 out of 3 of his last appearances at Wimbledon. Tsitsipas seems to have a game suited for grass, and went 1-2 on the surface this year. He lost in semifinals of Junior Wimbledon to Denis Shapovalov but won doubles with Kenneth Raisma beating Shapovalov and Auger Aliassime. It’s his first appearance in qualifying at the age of 18, and Giraldo’s first since 2009. Giraldo’s experience will be the deciding factor in the 3 set endeavor. Yannick Hanfmann could challenge Giraldo, but I see the Colombian continuing. Opponents in the final round have a total of 0 matches won on grass this year, all of them preferring clay.
My Pick: Santiago Giraldo

The biggest contenders for this qualifying spot are also meeting in the first round – No. 21 seed Taylor Fritz and Marco Chiudinelli. Chiudinelli is still in Top 200 at 35, and this will be one of his last solid chances to qualify for a slam. The Swiss beat Fritz just a couple of weeks ago in Stuttgart, so he is my pick. 3rd seed Tennys Sandgren has been on a rise this year, but with little to no experience on the most tricky surface, it’s difficult to see how Sandgren would beat Chiudinelli.
My Pick: Marco Chiudinelli

The unseeded players are not very impressive, so 4th seed Lukas Lacko and 23rd seed Peter Gojowczyk are the main contenders for this ticket into Wimbledon. Lacko will definitely need it, he is defending 115 points from last year, when he qualified and went on to beat Lorenzi and Karlovic before falling to Cilic. Lacko qualified for Stuttgart and Halle, losing to Struff and Mischa Zverev respectively. Gojowczyk won three matches in Stuttgart but lost in Surbiton and Ilkley. The head-to-head is 1-1, with Lacko winning their only match on grass. Lacko has also played in many more slams, and reached Round of 32 at Australian Open, which should give him the edge in a Best-of-Five match in the final round.
My Pick: Lukas Lacko

5th seed Andrey Rublev is the overwhelming favorite to qualify for Wimbledon. The #NextGen Russian lost out to Marcus Willis last year in the second round but should get in this time. Rublev beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Mikhail Youzhny in Halle before losing to Karen Khachanov, a fellow young Russian. This performance convinced me that Rublev will beat Joao Domingues, James McGee, and Paul-Henri Mathieu and qualify for his first Wimbledon. Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo is also there, almost comically. The 39-year-old Spaniard is trying to break his 6 match losing streak. This will be Mathieu’s last Wimbledon, and just like at Roland Garros, he wasn’t given a wild card. While Mathieu managed to qualify for his home slam, I don’t think he will replicate it. Mathieu retired in Ilkley, so he might be carrying an injury.
My Pick: Andrey Rublev

Section No. 6 is perhaps the weakest section. None of the 8 players in this section registered a single win on grass this season, so there isn’t a clear favorite. Go Soeda is the highest seed, but lost to Glasspool and Fritz in straight sets in the lead-up. Ilya Ivashka is coming in the best form, winning the Fergana Challenger. However, it was played on hard courts, and Ivashka has only played two matches on grass in his career, not winning a set in either. Grega Zemlja reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon before but has been struggling with injury. I would put my money on Ivashka of this line-up. The Belorussian is 196 cm tall, which warrants him a certain advantage on grass. This section is mostly a coin toss, and I can’t see the qualifier from this section doing particularly well in the main draw.
My Pick: Ilya Ivashka

Following Section No. 6 is another section that’s hard to predict. Seeds Kavcic and Robert both prefer clay. I could see Akira Santillan make his way to the final round past Kudla and Kavcic. It is true that Kudla reached the 4th Round just two years ago, but went winless in the lead-up. The American has been struggling overall, and his ranking has been declining. I could be wrong, this could be a great restart point for his career. However, Santillan scored wins over J.P. Smith, Hiroki Moriya, and Stefan Kozlov in Surbiton, which makes him the favorite in my eyes. As to who will meet him in the final round, it will probably be Tim Smyczek or Andrew Whittington. I think it is time for the 20-year-old who switched from representing Australia to Japan in 2015 to make some waves by qualifying for his first slam and come into the tennis public eye.
My Pick: Akira Santillan

The last section of the top half has three big contenders, all fighting for one final round spot. Lukas Rosol is more of an honorary and nostalgic contender. The hard-hitting Czech has fallen out of Top 200, is 1-2 on grass this season, but the memories of his incredible victory over Rafael Nadal don’t allow me to leave him out. In an all-American serve bonanza, Reilly Opelka and Rajeev Ram have been drawn against each other in the opening round. 19-year-old Opelka has been consistently rising and could be on the verge of Top 100 by U.S. Open. Opelka went 3-3 on grass, taking losses to Thompson, Copil, and Shapovalov. Rajeev Ram lost to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, his only match since Roland Garros. I think that 2 years after his Junior Wimbledon title, Opelka could qualify for the main draw and be impactful. No one in the top part won a match on grass, and the 8th seed Darian King has not won since March.
My Pick: Reilly Opelka

Illya Marchenko seems to be the overwhelming favorite to qualify despite a not-so-great grass season, going 2-3. The Ukranian has been struggling this year, and with his flat game, he could put it together at Wimbledon. Benjamin Becker is very far from his former heights, 31st seed Andrej Martin has never enjoyed success outside of clay. Marcus Willis seems to be his only real challenger, as he earned wins over Kudla and Ebden, and took Groth and De Minaur to three sets. That match does not have a clear winner, and I am sure that Willis will have the crowd pushing him to summon his best tennis.
My Pick: Illya Marchenko

The overall theme of this section is players trying to prove themselves. Sasha Bublik will want to show everyone that Australian Open wasn’t a one off. Oscar Otte, who rose from No. 521 at the beginning of the year to No. 170, will want to prove that he can transfer his success to grass. Daniel Brands and Luca Vanni will want to prove that they are still here and capable of stringing wins together. Both have been struggling to do so recently. I believe Sasha Bublik has the best chance to prove his point, and he will be the one to qualify.
My Pick: Alexander Bublik

In Section 11, all 8 players seem to be contenders. 11th seed Sergiy Stakhovsky went 4-2 on grass and also qualified for Paris (coincidentally facing Kenny de Schepper in both Paris and London). Stakhovsky’s biggest success came on grass when he upset Roger Federer at the 2013 Wimbledon. De Schepper scored wins over Marchenko and Norrie. His loss to Stakhovsky at Roland Garros was decided in the final set tiebreak, which must give the Frenchman hope and a craving for revenge. Wild card Edward Corrie went winless in the grass season but took a set in all three matches. A battle of generation will be conducted between 18th seed Jurgen Melzer and Alex De Minaur. Melzer is 18 years older than the Australian, also twice his age. De Minaur won their previous meeting last year in Eckental, and his wins on grass should give him the confidence to beat Melzer. He certainly has the game for it. I think it will be a final round between Stakhovsky and De Minaur, where the Ukranian will come through. De Minaur lost in the final of Junior Wimbledon last year, and it seems he will now lose in the final qualifying round.
My Pick: Sergiy Stakhovsky

Section 12 is one of the weaker ones found in the draw. Despite a weak lead-up, I see 12th seed Ruben Bemelmans charging through to the main draw. Last year, Bemelmans went 0-2 on grass, but qualified for Wimbledon anyway. Mathias Bourgue found success on the European clay challengers, but I don’t expect it to translate onto grass in a major way. I think it will give him confidence which should help him beat Krueger but ultimately lose to Bemelmans. The Belgian will then go on to beat Gerald Melzer in the final round. The younger of the Melzer brothers doesn’t like grass, but the favorable draw should help him get there.
My Pick: Ruben Bemelmans

It really comes down to two players in this section. John-Patrick Smith and Bjorn Fratangelo will battle for the main draw spot in the final round. Smith went through qualification to reach semifinals in Nottingham and lose to Sam Groth. Fratangelo’s best surface is clay, but he consistently reached quarterfinals in Nottingham and Ilkley. The Australian’s lefty serve and volley style has the most impact on grass, and I believe that he will rise to the occasion, and defeat Fratangelo. This would be the second Wimbledon main draw in John-Patrick Smith’s career.
My Pick: John-Patrick Smith

14th seed Maximilian Marterer is the favorite to qualify, as he qualified for Halle and pushed Steve Johnson to three sets in Stuttgart. A #NextGen match was drawn between Duckhee Lee and Elias Ymer, but since Ymer prefers clay, and Lee is in a run of bad form, it may turn out to be underwhelming. British wild card stands out due to his wins over De Minaur and Marchenko. I expect the 18-year-old Brit to get to the final qualifying round and make a match of it against Marterer.
My Pick: Maximilian Marterer

No big name jumps out at you in this section, and there are no outright favorites. Ryan Storrie and Neil Pauffley faced each other in pre-qualifying. Italians Travaglia and Caruso stayed on European clay. 15th seed Peter Polansky went winless on grass. 20-year-old Quentin Halys got wins over Novikov and Kravchuk in Ilkley, and I think he could be the one to take advantage of one of the weaker sections.
My Pick: Quentin Halys

The final section is headed by Konstantin Kravchuk. The Russian had a poor showing on grass, going 1-3. To be fair, he lost to Lacko, Copil, and Halys, no real surprises. He should definitely win his opening match over Matteo Donati. The No. 293 hasn’t played a match on grass in 2 years. 19-year-old Stefan Kozlov had a great grass season, which started off slowly with a loss in Surbiton. In Rosmalen, Kozlov beat Dustin Brown before losing to eventual finalist Ivo Karlovic. It was all topped off by a great performance at the Queen’s Club, where the American reached second round out of qualifying. Kozlov beat De Schepper, Herbert, and Steve Johnson. Kozlov is the favorite for me, and if he continues his form from Queen’s, he could get some wins in the main draw.
My Pick: Stefan Kozlov

ATP

Medvedev is the winningest on hardcourts, but it’s not enough to become the world N.1

At least as long as Novak Djokovic is around: an analysis of Daniil Medvedev’s numbers from 2019 Wimbledon to the 2021 US Open. He surely wins a lot, but relies too much on the hard courts.

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92 – the number of the matches won on hardcourts (outdoors or indoors) by Daniil Medvedev since the end of Wimbledon 2019.

Right after the Championships played two years ago, the 25-year-old Russian was not yet at the level of the best players, but he certainly wasn’t an also-ran either. He had in fact already reached the threshold of the Top 10, a ranking he attained thanks to his wins in four ATP tournaments: during 2018, in what was for him the first season ended in the Top 50, he won the ATP 250 in Sydney and Winston Salem and Tokyo’s ATP 500, to which he added Sofia’s ATP 250 in February 2019.

 

He had already shown he deserved a top-ten ranking in the previous months, thanks to four wins over foes who belonged to the world’s élite (the most prestigious win he had was on Djokovic in Monte Carlo 2019, the tournament in which he recorded his only semifinal appearance in a Masters 1000 event played on clay).

In August 2019, in the first tournament played with a top 10 ranking in Washington, the turning point of his career arrived: Daniil reached the final, losing against Kyrgios, but from the tournament played in the capital of the United States, he started an impressive streak of 25 wins (eight of which against Top 10-ranked players) in the following 27 matches.

These victories allowed the Russian to claim two Masters 1000 titles (Cincinnati and Shanghai) and an ATP 250 (St. Petersburg), as well as to reach two very important finals at the Masters 1000 in Montreal and at the US Open. Thanks to these results, the Russian pocketed a total check of $5,123,640 in prize money alone in a few weeks, and a booty of 4,050 points that allowed him to climb to the fourth place in the rankings back in September 2019. A sudden rise was followed by an inevitable period of adjustment. Daniil closed 2019 with four consecutive defeats between the debut in Bercy’s Masters 1000 and the three round robin matches of the ATP Finals, and even 2020 – at least until the end of October – was made mostly of shadows: his record before playing in Bercy was a subpar 18-10. When his decline seemed unstoppable, Medvedev rose again during the season finale: from the first round of the last Masters 1000 of the ATP calendar, the Muscovite began a 20-match win streak (12 of which against Top 10 competition) that earned him the Parisian tournament, the ATP Finals, the ATP Cup, and a run to the Australian Open final, when he was brutally halted by Djokovic.

His growth has never stopped since. In February 2021, he won his eleventh ATP tournament in Marseille and the following Monday he earned a great honour, becoming the first tennis player other than the Big Four (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray) to rise to second place in the ranking since Hewitt, who 794 weeks earlier – it was July 18, 2005 – found himself ranked world N.2 for the last time. The Muscovite did not impress in Miami but at Roland Garros – after having lost his debut match in six of the previous seven tournaments played on clay – he surprised everyone by reaching the quarterfinals. Medvedev continued his season by avenging his debut on grass – a bad defeat against Struff in Halle – with the Mallorca title (his first ATP title on this surface) and for the first time reached the fourth round at Wimbledon, where he lost in five sets against Hurkacz.

In the summer played on outdoor hardcourt, he disappointed at the Tokyo Olympics (where he was defeated by Carreno Busta in the quarterfinals) and in Cincinnati (in Ohio he was stopped in the semis by Rublev, who won over him for the first time after five defeats in as many previous matches against Daniil), but in between he won the fourth Masters 1000 of his career in Toronto. His first Grand Slam title, the US Open, came in the tournament where he’d lost a five-set final to Nadal in 2019. Medvedev won with a clear display of superiority over his colleagues: in the seven matches that led him to triumph, the only one to take away a set from him was qualifier Botic Van De Zandschulp in the quarterfinals. The other six opponents, including a Serbian named Djokovic, never managed to snatch even five games per set from him.

With the victory of the last Grand Slam of the year, Medvedev consolidated his second place in the ranking with a current tally of 10,780 points, “just” 1,353 less than Djokovic and 2,430 more than Tsitsipas. Unfortunately for him, the race for the number 1 in the world, however, appears to be rather difficult, more than what his current ranking implies.

Up to the next Australian Open, the Russian defends 5,585 points (52% of his total share of points) and it is therefore very difficult for him to claim the number one ranking in the next six months: Djokovic, in addition to the advantage he currently holds, has a smaller amount to be wary of in the same period, an amount of 4,835.

In order to close the gap, Medvedev must above all improve his performance when he is not playing on hardcourts: in the last 26 months, as you can read from the table that compares his performance with that of his main antagonists, he has won more matches than everybody else on hardcourts, and by a large margin. In total, he has won 21 more matches than Djokovic and put on the bulletin board a greater number of tournaments, as many as 9, including the US Open, the ATP Finals and four Masters 1000 titles. His own win percentage on hardcourts starting from July 2019 to today is lower (by 3 percentage points) only than that of the Serbian champion alone, and similar to that of Nadal – the latter has however played about half of the Russian’s matches. Medvedev’s ranking is all based on tournaments that are played on the hard courts: between outdoors and indoors hardcourt events, Medvedev has collected 88% of his current points, a big disproportion looking at the other players (from our summary diagram it is shown how, among those players, only Zverev has collected a higher percentage than 60% of his points on the same surface).

In the last two years, the current number 2 in the world has played only when forced to do so: just eight events, from which he collected a title (Mallorca, where he faced only two Top 50 players, Carreno and Ruud, both tennis players with very little expectations on grass) and won only twelve matches. If it seems more than likely that over the next few years Medvedev will be one of the big favorites in the tournaments that will be played on hard, the numbers confirm the impression that only by improving the results on other turfs the Russian could aspire to do the last and most difficult step he is missing: becoming the best player in the world.

Article by Ferruccio Roberti; translated by Michele Brusadelli; edited by Tommaso Villa

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Editorial

EXCLUSIVE: How The ATP Plans To Make The Tour More Welcoming For LGBT Players

The governing body of men’s tennis has received praise for taking a proactive approach to the topic with the help of a leading LGBTQ+ organisation and a top research university.

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Guido Pella during a Men's Singles match at the 2021 US Open, Wednesday, Sep. 1, 2021 in Flushing, NY. (Manuela Davies/USTA)

During the first week of the US Open, there was an abundance of rainbow-theme flags and wristbands worn by both players and fans to mark the tournament’s first-ever Open Pride Day.

 

The event was part of the USTA’s Diversity and Inclusion strategic platform which aims to make tennis more inclusive. Unlike the women’s game, there are no openly LGBTQ+ players on the men’s Tour and there have been few historically, even though various players have spoken of their support for anybody on the Tour who decides to come out. Including Stefanos Tsitsipas and newly crowned US Open champion Daniil Medvedev, who were questioned about the topic following their second round matches. Meanwhile, Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime revealed that there is an ongoing survey related to LGBTQ+ issues being conducted by the ATP.

“Recently I’ve started doing a survey inside the ATP about the LGBTQ+ community,” he said. “It’s important these days to be aware of that and to be open-minded and the ATP needs to do that, in today’s time it’s needed.

“The reason we don’t have openly gay players on the ATP Tour, I’m not sure of the reason, but I feel me, as a player, it would be very open, very welcome. Statistically, there should be some, but for now there’s not.”

In response to Auger-Aliassime’s comment, UbiTennis looked into the work currently being done by the ATP alongside two other parties. Their decision to venture into LGBTQ+ representation on the Tour is part of their recent commitment to support the mental health and wellbeing of their players and staff. Last year, in May, they formed partnerships with Headspace and Sporting Chance.  

The survey currently being conducted by the ATP started after the governing body of men’s tennis reached out to Lou Englefield, the director of Pride Sports, a UK organisation that focuses on LGBTQ+phobia in sport and aims to improve access to sport for all LGBTQ+ people. Through their connection, they contacted Eric Denison, a behavioural science researcher at Monash University’s School of Social Sciences. Denison was the lead author of the Out on the Fields study, the first international study on homophobia in sport and the largest conducted to date.

“I have been personally impressed with the initiative of the ATP and their desire to find ways to mitigate the broad impact of homophobic behaviour (in particular), not only on gay people, but on all players.” He told UbiTennis during an email exchange.

“We know of no other sporting governing body in the world that has been proactive on LGBTQ+ issues, and has taken a strong focus on engaging with both the LGBTQ+ community and scientists to find solutions.”

Denison says the norm has been for sports bodies to address this issue after they have been either pressured to do so or if the LGBTQ+ community got the ball rolling themselves. Incredibly, research conducted as part of the Out On The Fields initiative documented 30 separate studies which found sports organisations ignored discrimination experienced by LGBTQ+ people in sport.

Monash University has supplied the ATP with a series of scientifically validated questions, which they are using to ‘look under the hood’ at the factors which supports a culture where gay or bisexual players feel they are not welcome. The methodology is similar to a study Denison conducted in 2020 that focused specifically on the team sports rugby union and ice hockey.  

“We suspect that tennis isn’t inherently more homophobic than other sports, or traditionally male settings. Instead, there is a disconnect between people’s attitudes towards gay people (e.g. the recent pro-gay comments by top players) and their behaviour, specifically their use of homophobic banter and jokes,” said Denison.

“This behaviour, which is largely habitual, creates a hostile climate for young gay/bi people who drop out or hide their sexuality. This means gay/bi players are invisible in youth tennis and leads to the downstream problem of no professionals. The banter/jokes continue because people think it is harmless.”

The hope is that players will also agree to be interviewed by the researchers for them to get a better understanding. All of the results will then be used by Pride Sports and Monash University to recommend evidence-based solutions. It is unclear as to how long the study will take or when the findings will be ready. 

Former top 100 player Brian Vahaly is one of the few players to have been both openly gay and played at the highest level of the men’s game. However, he didn’t fully come to terms with his sexuality until after retiring from the sport at age 27. Speaking to UbiTennis earlier this year, Vahaly shed light on the potential barriers for gay players.

There were a lot of homophobic jokes made on Tour. It’s a very masculine and competitive environment,” he said. “You don’t see a lot of gay representation, except for the women’s Tour. With me not having the personality of an outspoken advocate (for LGBTQ+ issues), certainly not in my twenties, I needed some time to understand myself. To me, in tennis I didn’t feel like there was anybody to talk to or anybody that was going through anything similar.”

The ATP has spoken with Vahaly about their initiative and he has become ‘quite involved.’ Through their discussions, he got acquainted with Denison for the first time. As a professional, Vahaly peaked at a ranking high of 64th in the world and won five Challenger titles. After retiring from the Tour, he has served on the USTA’s board of directors since 2013. 

“I am happy to hear that the ATP is finally taking action to address this issue.  I’m impressed they are taking a thoughtful, data-driven approach to make a meaningful difference here,” he told UbiTennis. 

The ATP aims to make the men’s Tour more welcoming to potential LGTBQ+ athletes playing either now or in the future. For those who question if such an initiative is important in 2021, you only have to look at the younger demographic.

Sportsnet quoted CDC data from 2019 which showed that 26% of American LGBTQ+ teenagers aged 16 or 17 has contemplated suicide, five times more than those who identify as straight (5%). Among those teenagers who heard homophobic terms, 33% self-harmed and an additional 40% considered doing so.

More than 2000 players around the world currently have an ATP ranking.

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Statistical Profiles: Alexander Zverev

What is keeping the Tokyo 2020 gold medalist from winning a Grand Slam title?

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At twenty-four, Alexander “Sascha” Zverev is clearly among the best five players in the world, having achieved in 2017 his best ranking of world N.3 and having recently won the gold medal at the Olympics in Tokyo. This would be enough, perhaps, to highlight the talent of the young German of Russian origins, but there is much more to it: he can attack from the baseline with great ease both from the forehand and the backhand sides, and combines these skills with one of the most powerful serves on tour. After his first appearance in an ATP tournament (he won his first match in Hamburg in 2014 as a wild card), many foresaw a bright future for him.

 

Instead, in spite of 17 career titles, Zverev has not yet been able to win a Major, the Litmus test for every great champion. Even in the last edition of Wimbledon, Zverev succumbed to underdog Félix Auger-Aliassime in a five-setter.

Let’s look for an explanation within the data, particularly those that refer to the 79 singles matches he has played so far in Melbourne, Paris, London and New York, in order to try to better understand the causes of this discordant note in what is already a great career nonetheless.

RESUMÉ

Before focusing on Grand Slam matches, it is worth mentioning that the German number one has already won five Masters 1000 titles: the first on clay in Rome in 2017, defeating Djokovic in the final in straight sets; the same year, he won the tournament in Montrèal (on hardcourts), this time beating Federer. Then he won in Madrid twice, in 2018 and 2021 on clay, beating Thiem in 2018 and Berrettini in 2021, before recently winning in Cincinnati against Rublev. Not to be forgotten are the most precious jewels of Zverev’s collection, namely the triumph of the ATP Finals 2018 – once again defeating Djokovic after having eliminated Federer in the semis – plus the aforementioned Olympic gold medal, beating Djokovic once more before dispatching Khachanov in the final.

It was precisely the win at the O2 Arena three years ago that seemed to have definitively propelled Sascha to the pinnacle of world tennis, not only because of the wins per se, but also for the extraordinary quality of play he expressed in all areas of the court. Instead, something seemed to stop working.

In 2019, Zverev reached “only” three finals: in Geneva, in Acapulco, and at the Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai. However, only in Switzerland he could get to the title (in a third-set tiebreaker against Nicolás Jarry), while he was soundly defeated by Kyrgios in Acapulco and by Medvedev – in steamroller mode – in Shanghai.

In 2020, a season marked by the pandemic, Zverev seemed close to a big break. He first reached the semifinals at the Australian Open (his first at a Major) and then reached the final of a Grand Slam tournament for the first (and currently, only) time at the US Open. In both circumstances, he faced his good friend (and rival) Dominic Thiem. The fast surface should have, on paper, given an edge to Zverev, who in fact won the opening two sets in Flushing Meadows with a score of 6-2 6-4. At that point, once again, the tune changed: Thiem found new energies, while Zverev struggled. After tying the score, it was the Austrian who won the decisive tiebreaker, denying Zverev the trophy.

The 2021 season seems to fit into the same pattern: Zverev has already won four finals including two at Masters 1000 events, he is fourth in the Race and won gold in Tokyo, and yet he couldn’t go past the quarter finals in Australia, the semifinals in Paris (defeated by Tsitsipas in five sets), and the aforementioned 4th round at Wimbledon. So, a great regularity at high levels but with no real peak (compared to the level of play that he is able to express). Let’s now take a closer look at the data to try to better understand this dynamic.

OVERVIEW

Before delving into the analysis in search of winning and losing patterns, an overview will be presented, framing Zverev’s style of play with a series of statistics, the average values of which are shown in Figure 1, separately by surface.

FIGURE 1 – Average match statistics for Alexander Zverev at Grand Slam tournaments (click to enlarge)

It can be observed how both the average number of aces (in particular on fast courts) and that of double faults is quite high, proving that the serve is, in a way, both a blessing and a curse for the German player. He gets many points from it but, at the same time, it is that very stroke which sometimes puts him in danger, especially in clutch moments. 

Comparing different surfaces, a good balance can be observed: of course the number of winners is bigger on hard and grass, due to the specificities of these surfaces, and the difference in the number of net points is also easy to understand (albeit quite marked): almost absent on clay, definitely more frequent on hard, and even more on grass. A second set of statistics, shown in Figure 2, can help us get an even more precise idea:

FIGURE 2 – Second set of statistics for Alexander Zverev at Grand Slam tournaments (click to enlarge)

We note, in particular, a significant decrease in the percentage of points won with the second serve, compared to the percentage of points won with the first serve. On all surfaces, Zverev wins more than 70% of points with the first serve, while only on grass he exceeds 60% with the second, falling under 50% on clay.

It is only natural to attribute this difference to psychological factors too, given that in his first 1000 final, on the Rome clay in 2017, in a best-of-three tournament against the best returner on tour (and probably the greatest returner of all-time, Novak Djokovic), Zverev managed to win 69.2% of points on his second serve. The underdog role he played that day perhaps allowed him to play with less pressure and to showcase his qualities.

To be noted is a good effectiveness for Zverev at the net, particularly on hardcourts, where he wins over 70% of such points. Let’s now try to deepen the analysis, looking for patterns related to a Zverev win or defeat in a best-of-five match.

MOST SIGNIFICANT PATTERNS, THE KEY ELEMENTS OF ZVEREV’S GAME

So far, we have focused on Zverev’s game one aspect at a time. In this section, with the help of technology, we will consider more aspects simultaneously in order to develop a multivariate analysis. In particular, we will try to find out which of the various match statistics (which represent our input variables) are decisive, and how so, with respect to victory or defeat (which represent our output variables).

For greater clarity, we will ensure that the classification algorithm used will automatically return – based on the available variables – a model consisting of a set of rules which represent the statistically most significant patterns that lead the German to winning or to losing. Below, we illustrate the three most significant rules calculated as follows:

1 – “If Zverev wins at least 4.7% more points than his opponent with his first serve and hits fewer than 15 double faults, then he wins the match.” This pattern is quite general but extremely precise: it occurs in more than half of the matches won by Zverev in Grand Slam tournaments (to be precise, in 56%, corresponding to 38 matches) and in none of his 22 losses.

2 – “If Zverev hits at least 3.2 more winners than his opponent per set, then he wins the match.” This pattern is extremely precise: it occurred in 18 cases and Zverev won every time.

3 – “If Zverev does not win at least 2.1% more points than his opponent with his first serve, if he hits fewer than 43 winners, and if he amasses more than 27 unforced errors, then he loses the match.” This pattern is even more specific but, once more, there are no exceptions: it occurred six times and Zverev lost in all circumstances.

The more a stat appears as a relevant condition within these patterns, the more we can define it as a key element of Zverev’s game. We will therefore be able, on the basis of the data, to draw up a feature ranking of the various aspects of his game, distinguishing those that, to a greater extent, alone or in combination with others, prove to be decisive.

FIGURE 3 – Feature ranking of Zverev’s Grand Slam matches. The length of the bar represents the relevance of the feature, the direction represents the direction of the correlation (direct correlation bars extend to the right, reverse correlation bars to the left)

As can be seen in Figure 3, the most important element for Zverev turns out to be the difference in performance compared to the opponent in terms of the points won with his first serve. Of course, as this difference increases, the probability of victory also increases, and that is why the corresponding bar of the graph (the top one) points to the right, indicating a direct correlation. On the contrary, the second bar indicates an inverse correlation with respect to the average number of shots per rally: in other words, the shorter the rallies, the likelier Zverev is to win the match. Examining the other three bars which constitute the feature ranking, we can identify, as other items of interest, the difference with the opponent in terms of the number of winners (direct correlation) and unforced errors (inverse correlation) and, albeit more weakly, in terms of the number of net points played by the opponent (inverse correlation).

Trying to interpret these results, we are led to deduce that, from a more general perspective, the key element for Zverev may be his level of initiative. In other words, if the German looks to win many quick points, shortening the rally and not offering to his opponent the opportunity to get to the net too often, as the data also tells us, he has a very good chance of winning the match. Of course, unforced errors also have a weight: this attitude must not become too wasteful in terms of points gifted to the opponent.

Trying to summarize further and to move from data analysis to tactical choices, one could perhaps venture a piece of advice to Zverev, actually often reiterated by many experts: he should try to play as close as possible to the baseline. In fact, it is from that position that he manages to be aggressive without forcing too much and without letting himself be trapped in a thick web of long rallies. Who knows whether Sascha, mindful of his loss against Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon, will decide to give this tactic a try, perhaps as early as the upcoming US Open.

Article by Damiano Verda; translated by Alessandro Valentini; edited by Tommaso Villa

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