Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Qualifying Singles: Who Can Come Through?
The Wimbledon starts with qualifying on Monday! Who will be the 16 qualifiers that make it to the main draw?
The top seed in the qualifying for Wimbledon is rather symbolic. The World No. 100 Alessandro Giannessi hasn’t played on grass since the last Wimbledon qualifying, where he lost to then No. 706 Joe Salisbury. It is safe to say that Giannessi will most likely not make it to the main draw. No. 26 seed Adrian Menendez-Maceiras lost the only match on grass he played this year, and qualified for Wimbledon only in 2012, 5 years ago. The unseeded players in the section are the real contenders – Sam Groth, Simone Bolelli, or Tobias Kamke will make the main draw. Groth – Bolelli is a popcorn first round which makes the broadcasters glad they purchased the streaming rights, even with the absence of Maria Sharapova. Bolelli entered with a protected ranking as he has been out of the tour with injury for 9 months. He hasn’t played on grass for over 2 years, but he made the Round of 32 on three previous occasions. I think Groth will come through this match and go on to qualify. He had a solid showing at the grass challengers, reaching semis at both. Groth’s best result is a 3rd Round, and he could replicate it with the right draw. Tobias Kamke will probably beat Menendez-Maceiras, but his journey will end with Groth. The veteran Aussie should manage to beat any of his potential final round opponents.
My Pick: Sam Groth
The qualifier from the second section will come from the match between 2nd seed Santiago Giraldo and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Giraldo reached the 3rd Round on 2 out of 3 of his last appearances at Wimbledon. Tsitsipas seems to have a game suited for grass, and went 1-2 on the surface this year. He lost in semifinals of Junior Wimbledon to Denis Shapovalov but won doubles with Kenneth Raisma beating Shapovalov and Auger Aliassime. It’s his first appearance in qualifying at the age of 18, and Giraldo’s first since 2009. Giraldo’s experience will be the deciding factor in the 3 set endeavor. Yannick Hanfmann could challenge Giraldo, but I see the Colombian continuing. Opponents in the final round have a total of 0 matches won on grass this year, all of them preferring clay.
My Pick: Santiago Giraldo
The biggest contenders for this qualifying spot are also meeting in the first round – No. 21 seed Taylor Fritz and Marco Chiudinelli. Chiudinelli is still in Top 200 at 35, and this will be one of his last solid chances to qualify for a slam. The Swiss beat Fritz just a couple of weeks ago in Stuttgart, so he is my pick. 3rd seed Tennys Sandgren has been on a rise this year, but with little to no experience on the most tricky surface, it’s difficult to see how Sandgren would beat Chiudinelli.
My Pick: Marco Chiudinelli
The unseeded players are not very impressive, so 4th seed Lukas Lacko and 23rd seed Peter Gojowczyk are the main contenders for this ticket into Wimbledon. Lacko will definitely need it, he is defending 115 points from last year, when he qualified and went on to beat Lorenzi and Karlovic before falling to Cilic. Lacko qualified for Stuttgart and Halle, losing to Struff and Mischa Zverev respectively. Gojowczyk won three matches in Stuttgart but lost in Surbiton and Ilkley. The head-to-head is 1-1, with Lacko winning their only match on grass. Lacko has also played in many more slams, and reached Round of 32 at Australian Open, which should give him the edge in a Best-of-Five match in the final round.
My Pick: Lukas Lacko
5th seed Andrey Rublev is the overwhelming favorite to qualify for Wimbledon. The #NextGen Russian lost out to Marcus Willis last year in the second round but should get in this time. Rublev beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Mikhail Youzhny in Halle before losing to Karen Khachanov, a fellow young Russian. This performance convinced me that Rublev will beat Joao Domingues, James McGee, and Paul-Henri Mathieu and qualify for his first Wimbledon. Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo is also there, almost comically. The 39-year-old Spaniard is trying to break his 6 match losing streak. This will be Mathieu’s last Wimbledon, and just like at Roland Garros, he wasn’t given a wild card. While Mathieu managed to qualify for his home slam, I don’t think he will replicate it. Mathieu retired in Ilkley, so he might be carrying an injury.
My Pick: Andrey Rublev
Section No. 6 is perhaps the weakest section. None of the 8 players in this section registered a single win on grass this season, so there isn’t a clear favorite. Go Soeda is the highest seed, but lost to Glasspool and Fritz in straight sets in the lead-up. Ilya Ivashka is coming in the best form, winning the Fergana Challenger. However, it was played on hard courts, and Ivashka has only played two matches on grass in his career, not winning a set in either. Grega Zemlja reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon before but has been struggling with injury. I would put my money on Ivashka of this line-up. The Belorussian is 196 cm tall, which warrants him a certain advantage on grass. This section is mostly a coin toss, and I can’t see the qualifier from this section doing particularly well in the main draw.
My Pick: Ilya Ivashka
Following Section No. 6 is another section that’s hard to predict. Seeds Kavcic and Robert both prefer clay. I could see Akira Santillan make his way to the final round past Kudla and Kavcic. It is true that Kudla reached the 4th Round just two years ago, but went winless in the lead-up. The American has been struggling overall, and his ranking has been declining. I could be wrong, this could be a great restart point for his career. However, Santillan scored wins over J.P. Smith, Hiroki Moriya, and Stefan Kozlov in Surbiton, which makes him the favorite in my eyes. As to who will meet him in the final round, it will probably be Tim Smyczek or Andrew Whittington. I think it is time for the 20-year-old who switched from representing Australia to Japan in 2015 to make some waves by qualifying for his first slam and come into the tennis public eye.
My Pick: Akira Santillan
The last section of the top half has three big contenders, all fighting for one final round spot. Lukas Rosol is more of an honorary and nostalgic contender. The hard-hitting Czech has fallen out of Top 200, is 1-2 on grass this season, but the memories of his incredible victory over Rafael Nadal don’t allow me to leave him out. In an all-American serve bonanza, Reilly Opelka and Rajeev Ram have been drawn against each other in the opening round. 19-year-old Opelka has been consistently rising and could be on the verge of Top 100 by U.S. Open. Opelka went 3-3 on grass, taking losses to Thompson, Copil, and Shapovalov. Rajeev Ram lost to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, his only match since Roland Garros. I think that 2 years after his Junior Wimbledon title, Opelka could qualify for the main draw and be impactful. No one in the top part won a match on grass, and the 8th seed Darian King has not won since March.
My Pick: Reilly Opelka
Illya Marchenko seems to be the overwhelming favorite to qualify despite a not-so-great grass season, going 2-3. The Ukranian has been struggling this year, and with his flat game, he could put it together at Wimbledon. Benjamin Becker is very far from his former heights, 31st seed Andrej Martin has never enjoyed success outside of clay. Marcus Willis seems to be his only real challenger, as he earned wins over Kudla and Ebden, and took Groth and De Minaur to three sets. That match does not have a clear winner, and I am sure that Willis will have the crowd pushing him to summon his best tennis.
My Pick: Illya Marchenko
The overall theme of this section is players trying to prove themselves. Sasha Bublik will want to show everyone that Australian Open wasn’t a one off. Oscar Otte, who rose from No. 521 at the beginning of the year to No. 170, will want to prove that he can transfer his success to grass. Daniel Brands and Luca Vanni will want to prove that they are still here and capable of stringing wins together. Both have been struggling to do so recently. I believe Sasha Bublik has the best chance to prove his point, and he will be the one to qualify.
My Pick: Alexander Bublik
In Section 11, all 8 players seem to be contenders. 11th seed Sergiy Stakhovsky went 4-2 on grass and also qualified for Paris (coincidentally facing Kenny de Schepper in both Paris and London). Stakhovsky’s biggest success came on grass when he upset Roger Federer at the 2013 Wimbledon. De Schepper scored wins over Marchenko and Norrie. His loss to Stakhovsky at Roland Garros was decided in the final set tiebreak, which must give the Frenchman hope and a craving for revenge. Wild card Edward Corrie went winless in the grass season but took a set in all three matches. A battle of generation will be conducted between 18th seed Jurgen Melzer and Alex De Minaur. Melzer is 18 years older than the Australian, also twice his age. De Minaur won their previous meeting last year in Eckental, and his wins on grass should give him the confidence to beat Melzer. He certainly has the game for it. I think it will be a final round between Stakhovsky and De Minaur, where the Ukranian will come through. De Minaur lost in the final of Junior Wimbledon last year, and it seems he will now lose in the final qualifying round.
My Pick: Sergiy Stakhovsky
Section 12 is one of the weaker ones found in the draw. Despite a weak lead-up, I see 12th seed Ruben Bemelmans charging through to the main draw. Last year, Bemelmans went 0-2 on grass, but qualified for Wimbledon anyway. Mathias Bourgue found success on the European clay challengers, but I don’t expect it to translate onto grass in a major way. I think it will give him confidence which should help him beat Krueger but ultimately lose to Bemelmans. The Belgian will then go on to beat Gerald Melzer in the final round. The younger of the Melzer brothers doesn’t like grass, but the favorable draw should help him get there.
My Pick: Ruben Bemelmans
It really comes down to two players in this section. John-Patrick Smith and Bjorn Fratangelo will battle for the main draw spot in the final round. Smith went through qualification to reach semifinals in Nottingham and lose to Sam Groth. Fratangelo’s best surface is clay, but he consistently reached quarterfinals in Nottingham and Ilkley. The Australian’s lefty serve and volley style has the most impact on grass, and I believe that he will rise to the occasion, and defeat Fratangelo. This would be the second Wimbledon main draw in John-Patrick Smith’s career.
My Pick: John-Patrick Smith
14th seed Maximilian Marterer is the favorite to qualify, as he qualified for Halle and pushed Steve Johnson to three sets in Stuttgart. A #NextGen match was drawn between Duckhee Lee and Elias Ymer, but since Ymer prefers clay, and Lee is in a run of bad form, it may turn out to be underwhelming. British wild card stands out due to his wins over De Minaur and Marchenko. I expect the 18-year-old Brit to get to the final qualifying round and make a match of it against Marterer.
My Pick: Maximilian Marterer
No big name jumps out at you in this section, and there are no outright favorites. Ryan Storrie and Neil Pauffley faced each other in pre-qualifying. Italians Travaglia and Caruso stayed on European clay. 15th seed Peter Polansky went winless on grass. 20-year-old Quentin Halys got wins over Novikov and Kravchuk in Ilkley, and I think he could be the one to take advantage of one of the weaker sections.
My Pick: Quentin Halys
The final section is headed by Konstantin Kravchuk. The Russian had a poor showing on grass, going 1-3. To be fair, he lost to Lacko, Copil, and Halys, no real surprises. He should definitely win his opening match over Matteo Donati. The No. 293 hasn’t played a match on grass in 2 years. 19-year-old Stefan Kozlov had a great grass season, which started off slowly with a loss in Surbiton. In Rosmalen, Kozlov beat Dustin Brown before losing to eventual finalist Ivo Karlovic. It was all topped off by a great performance at the Queen’s Club, where the American reached second round out of qualifying. Kozlov beat De Schepper, Herbert, and Steve Johnson. Kozlov is the favorite for me, and if he continues his form from Queen’s, he could get some wins in the main draw.
My Pick: Stefan Kozlov
Iga Swiatek’s Ultimate Reflection: From Rome Heartbreak To Breakthrough Triumph
Iga Swiatek ultimate reflection has taught us the physiological demands of being an athlete.
Iga Swiatek’s life has changed over the last few years and now the world number one reflects on the defeat that defined the success that followed over the last few years.
Picture the scene. It was the 15th of September, 2020. The world was continuing to go through a traumatic time with the COVID-19 Pandemic six months in and tennis had just restarted a few months earlier in America.
A young 19 year-old called Iga Swiatek had just burst onto the scene having dominated the ITF tour and also conquered Grand Slam juniors. The Pole had won Roland Garros doubles with Caty McNally and followed that up by winning Wimbledon in singles.
Swiatek’s transition to the main tour was taken to like a duck to water as she reached her first final in Lugano in 2019 in April. That was followed by a decent showing at Roland Garros, reaching the last 16 before being demolished by former champion Simona Halep.
However at a young age, Swiatek had showed she can compete with the very best and more success was predicted for the Pole in the future.
Although nobody would predict was about to follow over the next few years with Swiatek eventually winning two Roland Garros titles and becoming one of the most dominant world number one’s in recent history.
Before we get to tennis domination, Swiatek had to go through what every athlete has to go to and that’s defeat.
It was in the Italian capital right before Swiatek’s first Grand Slam title in 2020 that the Pole suffered a massive setback as she would lose the most significant match in her career.
On the 15th of September 2020, Iga Swiatek went out in the first round to Arantxa Rus 7-6(5) 6-3.
A shocking defeat for Swiatek, who had high expectations for Rome and was looking to build some last minute momentum before her favourite Grand Slam of the year.
It was a career defining defeat for Swiatek though as she would win Roland Garros a few weeks later, claiming her first of three Grand Slam singles titles so far.
Three years later, Swiatek returned to Rome as the world number one and as defending champion ahead of her second Roland Garros title defence coming up in Paris.
In the Italian capital, Swiatek gave the ultimate reflection of that defeat to Rus that changed her career:
“Well, it wasn’t easy honestly. It was pretty tricky part of my career. I mean, I just started, but career,” Swiatek reflected on after her 6-0 6-0 demolition of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
“Well, this match, I remember it like a pretty traumatic one. She played, like, high balls. It really worked here on this slow surface. I couldn’t manage that properly. I was making a lot of mistakes. I didn’t feel really well.
“Then I remember we had some serious talks with the team on what to change and how to, like, reset, what I should do to feel a little bit better. I came home to practice, and that period of time wasn’t, like, easy at all. I also probably had some expectations because it was clay and I knew that I can do better. Yeah, it was really, really hard.
“Even when I came on Roland Garros, I remember just being on the Jean Bouin before the tournament, practicing there. I literally had the talk with Daria if it makes sense to continue everything because I felt so bad. I felt like, I don’t know, my expectations were just pretty high. I felt really bad on court. Always tense and stressed, even when I was practicing.
“I was able to kind of just really, really reset and let it go. I remember I was practicing I think with Kiki Mladenovic. We made a bet, me and Daria, if I’m finally going to have one practice that is going to be without any drama. I don’t remember what’s bet was for, but I remember it was about not having drama on practice, just playing one practice that is going to be calmer than most of my practices, but this is the goal.
“Since then, I managed on this tournament to kind of let everything go. Honestly, when I played my first rounds in Roland Garros 2020, I thought I played so bad that I can’t go lower, so I’m just going to play and see how it goes. Then I won couple of matches. I was like, Okay, what’s going on? Why am I suddenly winning?
“I managed to keep that till the end of the tournament. That’s why my win last year on Roland Garros felt much more special, because I felt like I’m in the right place. In 2020 it all felt like it’s like a big coincidence that I’m even here in the final of Roland Garros, for example. It was a tough time for me.
“Looking overall, I wouldn’t say that my 2020 season was good. I would say I only played well on Roland Garros. I don’t even know why, so… I’m pretty happy that I, like, worked through that experience and actually understood that lowering expectations, just letting everything go, was honestly the key. I tried to repeat that throughout all these years.”
Swiatek’s answer to a question about a defeat that defined her career shows her maturity and world-class talent on and off the court.
A teenager to identify her vulnerabilities and weaknesses is not easy let alone bringing people in to work on solutions.
Swiatek’s Roland Garros victory in 2020 was the start of a few years of success but almost ended in dramatic fashion having gone through stress throughout the tournament.
However it was a blessing in disguise as the Pole was able to identify long-term solutions for problems that relate to stress for the future as well as creating an environment that proves that she can still win the big tournaments.
Now Swiatek is stronger mentally than she ever has been, who knows if she’ll win a fourth Grand Slam title in Paris this year but the formula has been set for future success.
Swiatek’s ultimate reflection has taught us that the Pole is well on course to dominate the sport and create a legacy for many other young athletes on how to diagnose psychological problems.
The sorrows of the young Sinner
How strong is Jannik Sinner really? How the renaissance of Italian tennis deflated in Rome…
By Ubaldo Scanagatta
What could have been a memorable fortnight in Rome, despite some questionable scheduling and court quality, was hampered not only by the dire weather but also by the Italian players, who didn’t live up to the expectations. For the first time since 2019 no Italian, man or woman, featured in the quarterfinals.
Jannik Sinner had reached the quarter finals one year ago, where he was defeated by Tsitsipas (76 62). In 2021 Lorenzo Sonego had an outstanding run to the semifinals, putting away Thiem and Rublev, and was only halted by Djokovic. Matteo Berrettini made it to the quarterfinals in 2020, where he lost to Ruud.
Have we been overly trumpeting a Renaissance of Italian tennis in these years?
If we delve into the matter, we cannot really blame Matteo Berrettini for missing Internazionali BNL d’Italia two times in a row because of an endless string of injuries, neither can we criticize Lorenzo Sonego and Lorenzo Musetti for losing in straight sets against Stefanos Tsitsipas, No. 5 in the world and one of the best clay specialists, a two-time winner in Montecarlo, finalist in Roland Garros 2021 and Rome 2022. And Marco Cecchinato, while brushing away Bautista Agut, flashed glimmers of his heyday, namely 2018-19 when he reached the semifinals in Paris and a peak ranking at No.16.
Sonego even had two setpoints in the second set, which he didn’t play so brilliantly. Musetti had snatched a break in the second set but let the Greek back in before fatally dropping serve in the 12th game, just like in the first set. When the points get tight, the gap between the top players and the others suddenly widens.
There is no doubt that the great disappointment came when Jannik Sinner unexpectedly lost to Francisco Cerundolo. Throughout his young career the Argentinian had already beaten three top ten players (Ruud, Rublev and Auger-Aliassime) and is a tough hurdle to clear on clay, but the way he disposed of Sinner in the last two sets with a double 62 was discomforting.
A great disappointment because expectations were immense, considering that in the three Masters 1000 he played this year he had reached one final (Miami) and two semifinals (Indian Wells and Montecarlo).
Djokovic and Alcaraz, were the first two favourites for the title. But Sinner was rated as a third pick. And once Alcaraz and Djokovic were most unexpectedly ousted from the tournament he appeared as a likely winner. Also because Tsitispas hadn’t got off to brilliant start of clay season; Ruud had been struggling even more and Medvedev had never won a match in this previous four participations in Rome.
So is Sinner really as strong as here in Italy we say he is? Only Einstein could answer: it’s all relative.
Of course he’s a strong player. And it’s likely he’s going to stay in the top 10 for a long time. Much longer than Panatta, Barazzutti and Fognini did. Probably also than Berrettini, who has already been in the top ten longer than the three I mentioned, though helped by favourable circumstances, like the frozen rankings due to Covid.
How strong is he? Well, it depends on who we compare him with. If we look at his birth certificate, we cannot but think of Carlitos Alcaraz and Holger Rune.
Well, perhaps we have a little exaggerated, spurred by patriotism and craving for a true Italian champion, who has been missing since Panatta. Because the results achieved by Alcaraz, a Major and 4 Masters 1000, as well as No. 1 of the ATP ranking are quite different. It’s true that Jannik has beaten him on 3 occasions out of 6, at Wimbledon, Umag and Miami, not to mention the epic match at the US Open when he lost in 5 sets after having a match point. But this simply means that Alcaraz suffers his game, his powerful hitting from the baseline. In this sense there’s not such a huge gap, but many other aspects have to be taken into account.
Which are Jannik’s limits, compared with the current No. 1 in the world? Alcaraz is a much more complete player in terms of touch and finesse, natural gameplay fluidity, explosiveness of shots, physical strength, athleticism and variety of recovery skills and, therefore, unpredictability, tactical ductility, from serve and volley which he sometimes executes persistently, as he did against Medvedev, never looking like a fish out of water at the net) to marathon runner resilience. He can mix up powerful serves and kick serves, continuously varying angles and spin. His dropshots are completely natural. Jannik’s tennis, instead, often gives the impression of being robotic, even though he has made great progress in the last year.
I have often said that Jannik Sinner resembles Ivan Lendl, because Ivan’s philosophy was centred on work, work, and work, but he definitely wasn’t endowed with the same natural talent as John McEnroe. Yet he won more than McEnroe and this must be the hope, the goal of Sinner and his team.
Rune is a much more natural talent than Jannik. And it’s not only his mentor who says this. He’s more complete, he serves better, he lands drop shots with greater ease, he can alternate powerful groundstrokes and changes of pace…like Big Cat Mecir. He plays a clever tennis, instinctive at times, but also well-reasoned.
He has already won a Masters 1000, and he’s ahead of Jannik. He’s got a big personality, though sometimes he comes up with unpleasant behaviour on court. He quite reminds me of McEnroe. People just would wait for Mac to meltdown. It will be the same with Rune. The way he put away Djokovic, in spite of the match interruption due to rain which probably cost him the second set, proves his mental qualities. He had displayed the same qualities when he beat Sinner in Montecarlo.
He has achieved goals which Jannik has just got close to. Jannik seems to be often hampered by injuries. He’s not a natural tennis player, he’s not a natural athlete. But his desire to succeed is so impressive that he will overcome these shortcomings.
Alcaraz lost to Marozsan, but before losing he tried everything. He snatched a 4-1 lead in the tiebreak of the second set, which he ended up losing 7-4, because he too is young and can suddenly have lapses. But he battled away and tried to change tactics, whereas Jannik seemed flat and just gave in, without finding the strength to react and fight back.
Sinner is young too, and sooner or later he’s going to get through these situations. But he has to find his way. Many are the features of his game he has to work on: his serve, his volleys. His ultimate breakthrough is still to come.
Translated by Kingsley Elliot Kaye
The Madrid Open Men’s Final Was Three Sets Of Sheer Excitement
Winning is the ultimate key for Carlos Alcaraz or any tennis player.
Three sets in a non-major match just make winning more exciting for everyone other than the loser, even though Jan-Lennard Struff can take solace this time. After all, he was just a lowly “Lucky Loser.”
Struff actually took Alcaraz out of his game all the way until the Spanish 20-year-old finally came up with back-to-back love service games to secure a long 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 victory on Sunday in Madrid.
BREATHING EASILY DIDN’T COME EARLY FOR ALCARAZ
It was only then that Alcaraz could breathe easily against Struff’s amazing power and ability to win key points at the net.
Struff actually out-Alcarazed his foe until the end appeared to be in sight. The big German seemed to have an answer for everything Alcaraz could come up with until those last two service holds by the newest adult member of tennis greatness.
Alcaraz simply showed the packed house his true greatness and will to win. The young man was the true gem in the Madrid ATP Masters 1000 event.
ALL THE WAY WITH A BROAD SMILE
Alcaraz appeared to do it all with a broad smile on his young face. Three sets just made it more exciting for everyone other than the loser.
Alcaraz seems to enjoy the extra practice time when he needs it. And he needed it to turn back a 33-year-old opponent who played his heart out until the end.
He was outhit and outplayed, but when it came time to end things, Alcaraz was ready for the challenge.
ALCARAZ DID WHAT HE DOES BEST
Struff didn’t do anything really wrong. Alcaraz just did what he does best. Win.
The usual one-sided wins by Alcaraz, of course, are supreme fun for his growing number of fans. But at times like Sunday, Alcaraz appears to need to keep the pressure on until the clutch time comes. Otherwise, the fans might start celebrating too early.
After all, they already are in Rafa Heaven. What are the fans supposed to do if their two greats, Alcaraz and Rafa Nadal, have a showdown in Paris?
James Beck was the 2003 winner of the USTA National Media Award. A 1995 MBA graduate of The Citadel, he can be reached at Jamesbecktennis@gmail.com.
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