The quarterfinals commence on Tuesday in Melbourne.
In the halves of the singles draws that play on Tuesday, we are one round away from two highly-anticipated semifinals: Novak Djokovic against Jannik Sinner, and Aryna Sabalenka against Coco Gauff. However, all four face considerable opposition on Tuesday, and upsets have been contagious during this fortnight.
Marta Kostyuk vs. Coco Gauff (4) – Not Before 1:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Gauff’s progression these last six months has been significant, becoming one of the sport’s most confident and consistent performers. Since losing in the first round of Wimbledon, and making changes to her coaching team, Coco is now 33-4, with four titles, including her first Major. She’s on an 11-match winning streak at Slams, is 9-0 to start 2024, and didn’t drop a set in her first four rounds, averaging just two games lost per set.
Kostyuk is a 21-year-old Ukranian who was the Australian Open girls’ champion seven years ago. She’s long been expected to become a top player, and though it’s taken her a bit more time, she’s starting to fulfill that potential. Within the past 12 months, Marta has won her first WTA title, earned her first top 10 win, and has now achieved her first Major quarterfinal. She possesses an all-court game that has often been compared to that of Martina Hingis.
Their only previous meeting took place two years ago in this same country, with Gauff prevailing 6-3 in the third in Adelaide. In a preview of what could become a prominent WTA rivalry for years to come, Coco is the favorite to continue winning on Tuesday.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Taylor Fritz (12) – Not Before 2:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Three years ago in the third round at this event, these two participated in a bizarre match. After winning the first two sets, Djokovic suffered an abdominal injury, and promptly lost the next two sets. The crowd was in rare, disruptive form, as this was the last night before a new COVID lockdown was to begin in Melbourne. And even though Rod Laver Arena was less than 50% full, those present were extremely vocal, with many booing Novak. But prior to the start of the fifth set, fans were forced to leave due to the midnight lockdown, and Djokovic would win that set 6-2 in an empty arena. Novak then had an explosive, emotional reaction to winning, and would later call this “one of the most special wins of my life.”
That remains the only tight contest in a head-to-head history Djokovic has completely dominated. Novak leads 8-0, with the other seven matches all decided in straight sets.
The 24-time champion looked vulnerable to start this fortnight, and during the United Cup, lost his first match in Australia in six years . Yet despite his wrist injury, his form has strengthened as the tournament has progressed, and he dropped just three games to a physically-drained Adrian Mannarino in the last round. With that victory, Djokovic tied Roger Federer with his 58th Major quarterfinal, an all-time record.
This a third Major quarterfinal for Fritz in as many years, though he’s yet to advance farther. Two years ago at Wimbledon, he lost a heartbreaking quarterfinal to Rafael Nadal in a fifth-set tiebreak. And last summer in New York, he was easily defeated in straight sets by Djokovic. As sharp as Taylor looked on Sunday in a four-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Novak is a huge favorite on Tuesday.
Barbora Krejcikova (9) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 7:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
These two Major champions, in both singles and doubles, share a rather one-sided history in singles. Sabalenka is 5-1 against Krejcikova, with Barbora’s only victory coming a year ago in Dubai. They would meet three more times in 2023, with Aryna taking six of those seven sets.
Sabalenka’s level since winning her first Major here a year ago has been stellar. As per OptaAce on Twitter, she is the youngest WTA singles player to reach six consecutive Major quarterfinals since Amelie Mauresmo nearly 20 years ago. And she owns a perfect 7-0 record in this round of Majors, and all seven of those victories have come in straight sets. Aryna’s form through four rounds rivals that of Coco’s, losing just 11 games through eight sets.
Krejcikova has now come back from a set down three times during this event, most recently against teenage phenom Mirra Andreeva. This is her first Slam quarterfinal in singles since doing so two years ago at this same tournament. Like Aryna, Barbora’s highs and lows can be startling, and can come and go rather quickly. But given their history, their recent form, and Sabalenka’s record in Major quarterfinals, the defending champion is a strong favorite to advance.
Jannik Sinner (4) vs. Andrey Rublev (5) – Last on Rod Laver Arena
Welcome to Ginger Bowl VII, a blockbuster quarterfinal between two top-five players, and the best redheads of this generation. Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-2 overall, and 2-1 on hard courts. The Italian claimed both of their 2023 meetings in straight sets.
No man has played better this fortnight than Sinner. The 22-year-old has claimed all 12 sets he’s played without requiring a tiebreak, including against Karen Khachanov on Sunday, who was a semifinalist a year ago. Jannik has been a different player since reaching his first Major semifinal last July at Wimbledon, a feat he looks to equal on Tuesday.
And unfortunately for Rublev, it’s a feat that has tantalizingly escaped Andrey for over six years now, to the point where it has very much become “a thing.” The 26-year-old is 0-9 in Major quarterfinals, and he’s lost seven of those matches in straight sets. While Rublev is an undefeated 8-0 to start 2024, he’s coming off an exhausting five-setter in the fourth round against Alex de Minaur, which lasted over four hours and was filled with grueling rallies. Facing the ATP’s most in-form player, it would be shocking if Andrey is able to avoid going 0-10 in Major quarterfinals.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
