The men’s singles and women’s doubles championship matches are on Sunday in Melbourne.
Across the last 10 hard court Majors, Daniil Medvedev has now advanced to six championship matches, half of which have come in Melbourne. In those finals, Medvedev is a meek 1-4. However, this is the first time Medvedev is looking across the net at a man not named Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic, the two winningest male singles players of all-time at Grand Slam events.
And Medvedev can thank Jannik Sinner for that, who for the third time in their last four meetings, defeated Djokovic in Friday’s semifinals to reach his first Major final. Since adding Darren Cahill to his team 18 months ago, one of tennis’s best coaches of all-time, Sinner’s game has continually and significantly improved, most evident in his three victories over Djokovic since November. On Sunday, the most dominant male player of this fortnight looks to break more new ground in his young career.
Earlier on Sunday, in the women’s doubles championship match, it’s Lyudmyla Kichenok and Jelena Ostapenko (11) vs. Su-Wei Hsieh and Elise Mertens (2). This is a first Major final for Kichenok, and a first in doubles for Ostapenko. Su-Wei has won seven Majors in doubles, including her first mixed title earlier this week, and is 7-1 at this stage of Majors. Mertens has won three Majors in women’s doubles, including Wimbledon in 2021 alongside Su-Wei.
Jannik Sinner (4) vs. Daniil Medvedev (3) – Not Before 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Through six rounds, Sinner has dropped just one of 19 sets, which came against Djokovic in the semis. But even that match was a rather comfortable win for the Italian, who lost only six games in the three sets he claimed. Jannik has not just been the best ATP player this fortnight: he’s been the best ATP player since the last Major, with a record of 26-2. The 22-year-old is 10-4 in ATP finals, with this of course being by far the biggest of his career to date.
Medvedev endured a much more complicated path to this final, completing 25 out of a possible 30 sets, which included three five-setters. Two of those came in the last two rounds, against Hubert Hurkacz and Sascha Zverev. Daniil has spent six more hours on court than Jannik, and has played for over 11 hours during the second week alone. He is 20-16 in ATP Finals, with all 20 titles coming at different events. But Medvedev can be rather streaky in finals: after losing five in a row, he won seven of eight, yet has now lost his last three.
And those last two losses came at the hands of Sinner, who beat him in both Beijing and Vienna. Jannik also defeated Daniil in the semifinals of the ATP Finals in November, though all three of those recent matches were tight. Prior to that, Medvedev had dominated their head-to-head 6-0, which includes two finals earlier in 2023. All ten of their meetings have taken place on hard courts, and this is their first at a Major.
Based on their recent history, as well as their individual form this fortnight, I favor Sinner to win his first Major on Sunday. While he’ll surely be nervous in the biggest match of his life, and could experience an emotional letdown coming off ending Novak’s undefeated record of 20-0 in Australian Open semis and finals, Jannik will be the much fresher player on this day. Plus, he will feel confident after those three recent wins over Daniil, who has a lot of scar tissue to overcome in Major finals. And after facing Medvedev so much within the past year, Sinner is well-versed on how to take advantage of Daniil’s deep return position.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
