Round-robin play concludes on Friday, with one more spot in the singles semifinals to be decided.
Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic have already qualified for Saturday’s semifinals, with Carlos Alcaraz and Sascha Zverev still having a chance to qualify, as they both hold a record of 1-1. On Friday, Alcaraz plays Medvedev, while Zverev faces Andrey Rublev, who has already been eliminated from advancement with an 0-2 record.
Here are Friday’s advancement scenarios:
- Zverev advances if:
- Medvedev defeats Alcaraz, and Zverev defeats Rublev.
- Alcaraz advances if:
- Any other combination of results take place in Friday’s singles matches.
So Alcaraz has many different scenarios where he can advance, while Zverev needs two specific results on Friday in order to advance.
Each day, this preview will analyze the most intriguing matchup, while highlighting the other matches on the schedule. Friday’s play begins at 12:00pm local time.
Carlos Alcaraz (2) vs. Daniil Medvedev (3) – Not Before 2:30pm
They have split four previous meetings, three of which occurred during 2023. And all their matches this year have been prominent ones. In the championship match of Indian Wells, Alcaraz easily defeated a tired Medvedev, who had won three hard court titles in as many weeks heading into the event. In the semifinals of Wimbledon, Carlitos again prevailed in straight sets. But in the semis of the US Open, as most were anticipating another Djokovic/Alcaraz final this summer, Daniil prevented that from happening, taking out Carlitos in four sets.
Alcaraz is now 64-11 on the year, and 1-1 in his ATP Finals debut, after losing to Zverev in three sets, then beating Rublev in two. However, Carlitos has not been the same player since losing to Novak in their epic Cincinnati final three months ago. Alcaraz has now lost four of his last six matches, and he remains an unproven commodity on indoor hard courts, a setting in which he’s played less than 30 matches in his career.
Medvedev is now 66-16 this season, and 11-7 lifetime at this event, after beating both Zverev and Rublev in straight sets. In his fifth consecutive appearance, this will be his third time advancing out of round-robin play. He went on to win the title in 2020, and was the runner-up to Zverev the year after. Daniil is now 11-2 this year on indoor hard courts, and has won 91 indoor hard court matches in his career.
Based on their recent form, as well as their contrasting amounts of experience on indoor hard courts, Medvedev is the favorite to defeat Alcaraz on Friday afternoon. But if Carlitos can serve a high % of first serves, and use that to attack Daniil’s deep return position, as he did earlier this season, Alcaraz could easily hand Medvedev his first loss of the week. Regardless, this should be a fascinating contest between two of the sport’s best players, in a match with a lot on the line: considerable money and ranking points, as well as semifinal placement.
Other Notable Matches on Friday:
Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski (2) vs. Rohan Bopanna and Matthew Ebden (3) – Both teams are 1-1 thus far, so the team that wins this match will advance to the semifinals, while the losing team will be eliminated. These teams have played five times this year, with Koolhof and Skupski holding a 3-2 edge, with their most notable victory coming in the Wimbledon semifinals. However, the only hard court meeting this season between these two teams, at Indian Wells, went to Bopanna and Ebden.
Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury (6) vs. Rinky Hijikata and Jason Kubler (8) – Ram and Salisbury are 2-0 and have already qualified for the semis, while Hijikata and Kubler are 0-2 and have been eliminated, so this is a dead rubber.
Andrey Rublev (5) vs. Sascha Zverev (7) – This could also be a dead rubber, if Alcaraz defeats Medvedev earlier in the day. Zverev claimed their first five meetings, but the last three went to Rublev, all of which took place during this season.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
