ATP Finals Daily Preview: Jannik Sinner Plays Novak Djokovic in the Championship Match - UBITENNIS

ATP Finals Daily Preview: Jannik Sinner Plays Novak Djokovic in the Championship Match

By Matthew Marolf
6 Min Read

It’s Championship Sunday in Turin, with the singles and doubles champions to be crowned. 

This past Tuesday, Jannik Sinner earned his first career victory over Novak Djokovic in his fourth try, and in the best match of the 2023 ATP Finals thus far.  Just five days later, Sinner will look to repeat that feat and beat the all-time great for the second time this week.  Jannik is playing for the biggest title of his young career, and trying to deny Novak a record-breaking seventh title at the ATP Finals.

Also on Sunday, In the doubles championship match, it’s Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (5) vs. Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury (6).  Ram and Salisbury are looking to defend their titles from a year ago, while Granollers and Zeballos are vying for their biggest title as a team, though Granollers won this event back in 2012 alongside Marc Lopez.  Last year in the round-robin stage of this tournament, Ram and Salisbury defeated Granollers and Zeballos in a third-set tiebreak, though earlier this season on clay in Rome, Granollers and Zeballos avenged that loss, in another match decided by a third-set tiebreak.


Jannik Sinner (4) vs. Novak Djokovic (1) – Not Before 6:00pm

Sinner is the only singles player to go 4-0 this past week, with victories over Djokovic, Tsitsipas, Rune, and Medvedev.  His last three matches have all been three-setters, including a highly-competitive semifinal on Saturday against Medvedev.  Jannik is now 61-14 on the year, with four titles, two of which have come this fall.  He’s now claimed 17 of his last 18 matches, with the only loss coming against Ben Shelton in Shanghai.  And Sinner owns a career record of 10-3 in ATP finals, though two of those losses occurred this year.

Djokovic is 3-1 this week, and has now won 21 of his last 22 matches, with an overall record of 54-6 this season, and six titles (three of which were Majors).  His loss to Sinner on Tuesday is the only match he’s lost since losing the Wimbledon final to Carlos Alcaraz.  Djokovic rather comfortably defeated Alcaraz in Saturday’s semifinals, spending considerably less time on court than Sinner did in his semifinal earlier in the day.  In his 16th appearance at the ATP Finals, this is Novak’s ninth time reaching the championship match, where he is 6-2 previously.  Since winning this event a year ago, he is now 7-1 in his last eight tournament finals.

Djokovic leads their head-to-head 3-1, and they split their two prior meetings in 2023.  In comparing the stats between Novak’s straight-set victory over Jannik in this year’s Wimbledon semis, to Jannik’s three-set win over Novak on Tuesday, the first thing that stands out is Sinner’s improved serve.  At Wimbledon, he served eight aces and three double faults, compared to 15 aces and only two doubles on Tuesday.  And the other big difference is how Jannik took advantage of his break point chances.  At Wimbledon, we was 0-for-6 on break points, while on Tuesday he was 2-for-3.

Sinner has been the best player of the week, with the significant improvements he’s made in his game rewarded by the fast-playing courts in his home country.  As per Tennis Channel, Jannik has the fastest average speed on both his forehand and backhand out of any player in this field.  The Italian has also embraced the home crowd support, and played his best tennis during the most crucial moments.  But can he maintain that level to earn a second victory this week over 2023’s best player?

Jannik will also have to overcome a disturbing trend, as far as his chances are concerned.  Three out of the last four times the singles final at this event has been a rematch from round-robin play, the player who lost the round-robin match was victorious in the final.  That bodes well for Djokovic, and he’s also one of the players to previously do just that.  Back in 2015, he defeated Roger Federer in straight sets after losing to Roger earlier in the week.  However, Novak was also a victim of that trend in 2018, when he lost the final to Sascha Zverev.

As great as Sinner has performed this week, it’s hard to imagine him mustering the effort to defeat the 24-time Major champ again on Sunday.  And Djokovic will be motivated to avenge the one loss on his record from the last four months.  Novak continually reminds us how much he enjoys fighting off the younger generation’s best, and he is the favorite to overcome one of the sport’s fastest-rising stars on Sunday.  It would be his seventh title at the ATP Finals, surpassing Federer’s tally of six, and coming 15 years after his first.


Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.

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