The round of 16 begins on Sunday in both the men’s and women’s singles draws.
Coco Gauff has already endured several stern tests this fortnight, and it won’t get any easier for the 19-year-old on Sunday, as she faces two-time US Open runner-up Caroline Wozniacki. Day 7 will also see a battle between Roland Garros champions, as Iga Swiatek takes on Jelena Ostapenko.
On the men’s side, the bottom half of the draw is 50% American. And two of those Americans collide on Sunday, as Tommy Paul plays Ben Shelton in an Australian Open rematch. Plus, Americans Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe, as well as Novak Djokovic, face opponents ranked outside the top 100.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Sunday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Tommy Paul (14) vs. Ben Shelton – 12:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
In the Australian Open quarterfinals this past January, Paul beat Shelton in four sets to reach his first Major semifinal. Tommy had previously advanced to a Slam quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 2020, so that result was not shocking. But for 20-year-old Ben Shelton, that was only his fifth ATP-level tournament, and his first time ever leaving the United States.
Since leaving Australia, Ben has struggled mightily, going just 9-19 before arriving in New York. Yet at his home Slam, he’s rebuilding his confidence, with his big weapons beginning to click again. Paul has maintained a solid level throughout the year, and on Friday, picked up his 40th win of 2023, a career-high for the 26-year-old American.
In their Australian Open rematch, Paul is again a considerable favorite. His speed and consistent groundstrokes will force Shelton to hit a lot of extra balls. And Tommy has been in great form this summer on hard courts, as he’s split two three-setters with World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz.
Sorana Cirstea (30) vs. Belinda Bencic (15) – Second on Louis Armstrong Stadium
Bencic has quietly put together a solid yet unspectacular season to date. She won two hard court titles at the beginning of the year (Adelaide, Abu Dhabi). And this is her third appearance in the round of 16 at a Major this season, though she’s yet to advance farther. In New York, Belinda has reached the quarterfinals or better in two of her last three appearances.
Cirstea is playing for her first Slam quarterfinal in over 14 years, when she achieved that feat in Paris as a teenager. Like Bencic, she had some strong hard court results early in the year, as she was a quarterfinalist at Indian Wells, and a semifinalist in Miami. In the last round, Sorana upset Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, her fourth top five victory of 2023.
Cirstea is 2-1 against Bencic, with all three meetings taking place on hard courts between 2021 and 2022. However, Belinda’s only victory came at this same event a year ago, when she prevailed 6-2 in the third. But on Sunday, I give the slight edge to Sorana. Her form this past week has been a bit stronger than that of Bencic, especially in Cirstea’s three-set win over Rybakina.
Caroline Wozniacki (WC) vs. Coco Gauff (6) – Not Before 2:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Both of these women impressively turned around their third round matches after falling behind early. Wozniacki was down a set and a break to Jennifer Brady, before reeling off 12 of the last 14 games, using her speed and endurance to exhaust the American. Likewise, after dropping the first set to Elise Mertens, Gauff stormed back, claiming the last nine games of the match.
Gauff has now won 14 of her last 15 matches, which includes title runs in both Washington and Cincinnati. She is vying for her fourth Major quarterfinal out of the last seven. Wozniacki was just 1-2 in her return to the sport before arriving in New York, yet has earned impressive victories this past week over both Brady and Petra Kvitova. She is looking to achieve her first Slam quarterfinal since she won the Australian Open nearly six years ago.
In their first career meeting, Wozniacki will look to effectively utilize her defensive skills and formidable backhand to draw errors off her opponent, just as she did against Kvitova and Brady. Gauff will need to use her power to control the points. And unlike Kvitova and Brady, she is faster around the court than Caroline. Coco should be favored to reach the US Open quarterfinals for the second consecutive year.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Jelena Ostapenko (20) – Last on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Swiatek has made a habit out of making quick work of her opponents early in Majors. Iga won two of her first three matches by the score of 6-0, 6-1, and dropped only seven games in the other. She is now 56-9 on the year, though the fourth round has historically served as a bit of a stumbling block for her. Iga is just 7-6 at this stage of Slams.
Of course, Ostapenko has the firepower to dictate matters and defeat just about anyone when she’s in the zone. However, that hasn’t been the case of late against the best in the world. As per Tennis Abstract, Jelena is 0-4 this season against top five opponents, though notably, all four of those matches went to three sets. And she did advance to the quarterfinals at the last hard court Major in Melbourne.
This has been a one-sided rivalry to date, and surprisingly, it’s been Ostapenko that has taken all three of their meetings. That includes a hard court three-setter last year in Dubai, which Jelena won in a third-set tiebreak. But the US Open courts are reportedly playing considerably slower this year, which is to Swiatek’s liking. And in turn, I like Iga to earn her first victory over the 2017 French Open champion on Sunday evening.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Karolina Muchova (10) vs. Xinyu Wang – Muchova is yet to drop a set, and has now won eight of her last nine matches. This is a first appearance in the fourth round of a Major for Xinyu, though she’s yet to face a player ranked inside the top 50.
Rinky Hijikata (WC) vs. Frances Tiafoe (10) – Tiafoe came from a set down in the last round to eliminate Adrian Mannarino, as Frances looks to achieve his third Major quarterfinal. Hijikata is a 22-year-old Australian who was just 1-2 at Slams ahead of this run, though he’s also yet to face a top 50 player.
Dominic Stricker (Q) vs. Taylor Fritz (9) – Through nine sets thus far, Fritz has been completely dominant, losing only 13 games. Taylor is vying for his second Slam quarterfinal. Stricker has played a lot of tennis since qualifying began last week, and has endured back-to-back five-setters, which includes an upset over Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Borna Gojo (Q) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – Djokovic will be looking for a straightforward victory on Sunday, after having to come back from two sets down against Laslo Djere on Friday night. Gojo is a 25-year-old Croatian who has not lost a set this week, and lost only one set last week during qualifying.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
