In the end, it all came down to a final round skirmish in Rome between the rapidly advancing Danish competitor Holger Rune and the revitalized Russian Daniil Medvedev for the highly coveted 2023 Italian Open singles title. Medvedev upended Rune 7-5, 7-5 with a first rate performance, securing a service break in the last game of the opening set and twice battling back from a break down in the second set, and ultimately establishing himself as a worthy champion.
He had never won a match in three previous visits to Rome. But in capturing the title so magnificently, Medvedev made it abundantly clear to both his followers and rivals that he will present a new version of himself at Roland Garros as a man more than capable of winning the tournament, no longer doubting what he can accomplish on clay, realizing that this just might be his time.
It took some clutch play in both sets from Medvedev to get a difficult job done against Rune in Rome. Behind 0-30 at 1-1, he collected four points in a row. At 2-2, he was down 15-40 but lifted himself out of that precarious territory with three consecutive unstoppable first serves followed by a nifty swing volley winner.
Rune, meanwhile, was holding comfortably until the last game of that opening set. Serving-and-volleying craftily with some regularity up until that juncture, he kept Medvedev at bay, eliciting a surprising number of return errors from his adversary.
But with the Danish competitor serving at 5-6, Medvedev at last found an opening, and exploited it to the hilt. With Rune facing a break point for the first time, Medvedev met the moment ably. Rune released a backhand drop shot down the line that sat up invitingly for the Russian, who came forward swiftly to unleash a cleanly executed forehand crosscourt winner. The set belonged to Medvedev 7-5.
And yet, Rune went ahead 2-0 in the second set, breaking Medvedev at love, holding at 30, looking confident with his uncanny balance of control and power. Medvedev retaliated, capturing the next three games, sweeping 12 of 15 points in the process, taking a 3-2 lead. Now Rune went on a three game spree of his own to regain the ascendancy with a 5-3 scoreline in his favor.
The highlight of that stirring stretch from the Danish player was the first point of the seventh game, when he prevailed in a 38 stroke exchange. All rally long he had rolled backhands crosscourt in a war of patience with the Russian, but Rune ended that exchange with a blazing backhand winner up the line.
The loss of that point seemed to send Medvedev into a psychological tailspin for a while, but he recovered his emotional equilibrium just in the nick of time, putting everything on the line to prevent a third set, winning four games in a row to close out a gripping account. Medvedev held at 30 for 4-5, broke Rune in the tenth game at 30 by fending off a fierce backhand from his adversary and coaxing an error. At 5-5, Medvedev sent an ace down the T at 30-40, made it to 6-5, and then broke a dispirited Rune at 15 in the final game as the 20-year-old imploded with four unforced errors.
Overcoming a clay court player of Rune’s prowess in a hard fought 7-5, 7-5 final round appointment was a seminal moment for Medvedev on that surface, but his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas by the same scores in the penultimate round was nearly as impressive. The two players endured terribly long and draining rain delays. Even when they were out on court the rain fell almost incessantly.
Tsitsipas rallied from a break down to reach 5-5 in the opening set, and then led 40-0 in the eleventh game. But he was not nearly as sturdy from the backcourt as his adversary, making a string of unjustifiable errors on the next four points and double faulting the game away.
Tsitsipas rallied from a break down in the second set as well, but Medvedev took three consecutive games from 4-5 to close out the match, breaking into a bizarre dance step to celebrate his hard earned victory. Rune won his semifinal in a stunning comeback against Casper Ruud. The Norwegian had won all four of his previous career clashes with Rune.
Although Ruud has struggled inordinately this season after unexpected final round appearances in 2022 at Miami, Roland Garros and the U.S.Open, he was exemplary against Rune until he led by a set and 4-2 over his rival. Serving at 4-3, Ruud, so impenetrable until then, faltered flagrantly from the baseline, making a pair of unprovoked mistakes to give away that game. Rune took ten of the last twelve games for a 6-7 (2), 6-4, 6-2 win as Ruud turned into a much tamer individual. Losing his second set lead was a devastating blow to the Norwegian.
For most of the leading players, Rome was the last tournament they would play before moving on to Roland Garros at the end of the month, although the results meant more to some marquee names than it did for others.
Let’s start with Carlos Alcaraz. Making his debut in Rome, the sprightly Spaniard was seen as the favorite in the eyes of many seasoned observers. He had been victorious in Barcelona on the dirt, eclipsing Tsitsipas in the final. Confident after claiming that title, he then came through purposefully at the Masters 1000 event in Madrid, overcoming the 33-year-old German lucky loser Jan-Lennard Struff in a three set final. Defending his crowns in each of those Spanish cities lifted the sprits of Alcaraz considerably. He came into Rome brimming with self conviction.
But the 20-year-old was upended in the third round of Rome in one of the year’s biggest shockers. Facing Fabian Marozsan, Alcaraz was caught off guard by the potency of the Hungarian’s ground game and serve. Marozsan, a 23-year-old ranked No.135 in the world, was unrelentingly explosive from the backcourt and cagey as well, implementing the drop shot with supreme disguise— much to the dismay of Alcaraz.
Marozsan had barely survived in the first round of the qualifying, emerging with a hard fought 6-0, 2-6, 7-5 victory over Kazakhstan’s Timofey Skatov. In the second round of the main draw, Marozsan barely survived a 4-6, 6-1, 7-6 (4) encounter with world No. 39 Jiri Lehecka. But, given the chance to play with absolutely nothing to lose against Alcaraz, Marozsan was a player of a different ilk. He controlled his firepower commendably, kept the Spaniard off balance and ill at ease, and held his nerve remarkably well.
Marozsan took the first set and was up a break in the second, serving at 4-3. Only then did the reality of what he was on the verge of achieving seem to sink in. Alcaraz broke back and soon they moved on to a tie-break. When the Hungarian fell behind 1-4 in that sequence, his upset bid looked over. But, improbably, he swept six points in a row to complete a stunning 6-3, 7-6 (4) triumph over the dynamic Spaniard.
Frankly, I believe that defeat will not harm Alcaraz in the least. Had he gone deep into the draw at Rome and perhaps secured the title, he might have left himself vulnerable to an injury or even drifted into overconfidence. Losing early will enable Alcaraz to be fully rested and ready for Roland Garros. The great players never like losing, but this one may have been timely for Alcaraz. He will get over it in a hurry.
As for Novak Djokovic, he wanted more out of Rome than he got, although the week was not a disaster. After only winning one match in Monte Carlo and one more in Bosnia while dealing with lingering elbow issues, the six-time (and defending) Italian Open champion seemed somewhat healthier in Rome. He reached the quarterfinals with wins over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Grigor Dimitrov, and Cameron Norrie. He played well in his 6-3, 6-4 victory over Norrie.
But Djokovic was never really himself during a 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 loss at the hands of an enterprising Rune. Most surprising was the Serbian’s third set performance. He had returned from a rain delay in the tenth game of the second set to break Rune and make it one set all. But he lost his momentum quickly, falling behind 0-4 in the third set.
The wet conditions did not help as Rune skillfully countered the Serbian’s best baseline punches, but Djokovic also asked for a pain killer at one stage from the trainer. He was both impatient and undisciplined. He has an awful lot of work to do en route to Roland Garros after another subpar showing, but the two-time French Open victor will have time to play his way into top form in Paris as long as his body cooperates.
The way I look at it, Alcaraz, despite his Rome setback, remains the clear favorite to prevail at Roland Garros. He was victorious at the last major he played last September at the U.S. Open, establishing himself as the first teenaged male player to garner a Grand Slam singles title since Rafael Nadal broke through at Roland Garros in 2005. Considering that an injury kept Alcaraz out of the Australian Open earlier this year, his motivation to rule on the red clay in Paris this year will be even greater.
In my view, Djokovic is the second most likely to succeed— even with all of the heavy baggage he is carrying around now after a lackluster clay court season and the lingering questions surrounding his current physical state. Nevertheless, his Roland Garros record includes titles in 2016 and 2021, and four final round showings. Three of those title round losses were against the redoubtable Rafael Nadal, who is unable to play in Paris this year after claiming an astonishing 14 championships in a sterling 18 straight years of competing at the clay court shrine from 2005-2022.
Not only did Djokovic fall short against Nadal thrice in the finals, but he has lost to his chief rival on those courts no fewer than five other times altogether. Be that as it may, Djokovic is the only man to topple Nadal twice at Roland Garros. The Spaniard—victorious in 112 of 115 career contests at his favorite major— lost only one other match at the French Open, falling against Robin Soderling in 2009.
To put this in perspective, Djokovic has (like Nadal) played the French Open 18 times. Half of his 16 losses have been suffered against Nadal, including his last two defeats. He is 2-8 versus the Spaniard on the red clay of Roland Garros. It will be an odd feeling for the Serbian to not have Nadal in the forefront of his mind as he approaches Roland Garros. But his larger concern will be recovering his best form and releasing it when it matters the most over the coming Paris fortnight.
My No. 3 Roland Garros choice—and close behind Djokovic— is Medvedev. In my view, one of the reasons he has adjusted so much better this season to the dirt is the dominance he exhibited on hard courts leading up to the clay events. He exceeded even his own expectations by ruling in Rome. It was his fifth singles title of 2023, his sixth career Masters 1000 tournament triumph, and his 20th career championship. But it was the first time Medvedev has ever claimed a title on clay. Medvedev has won 18 tournaments on his preferred hard courts, and one on grass.
Do not undervalue what winning Rome will do for his morale. Remember as well that he played better than usual on the dirt leading up to the Italian Open, reaching the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo before losing to Rune, making it to the round of 16 at Madrid where he lost to countryman Aslan Karatsev.
To be sure, those showings could not be classified as extraordinary. But he put forth a remarkable effort in Rome, dropping only one set in six matches, finishing up with wins over 2022 Italian Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas and then avenging his Monte Carlo defeat to Rune.
At No. 4 in my Roland Garros projection is the surging Rune. A year ago, he made it to the quarterfinals in Paris, toppling Tsitsipas before bowing against Ruud. Since then, Rune has made immense strides in the sport. He finished 2022 at No. 11 in the world after stopping Djokovic in a tremendous final at the Rolex Paris Masters. That was his first Masters 1000 title, and a dandy. This season he started slowly and underperformed prior to the clay court campaign.
But after reaching two Masters 1000 finals on the dirt and winning in Munich, Rune now stands at No. 6 in the world. Rune is capable of beating anyone in the Roland Garros field. Anyone. What concerns me is how well he will hold up physically if he becomes embroiled in a few long and taxing matches. But he is a big picture thinker who could peak in Paris and win it all under the right circumstances.
In my view, only two other men have a serious chance to win the premier clay court prize in France. I place Tsitsipas at No. 5 on my list of contenders. He was ever so close to wearing the champion’s robe two years ago, reaching the final and winning the first two sets from Djokovic. This year he opened the season with a second final round appearance at a major, falling against Djokovic again at the Australian Open—this time in straight sets.
Tsitsipas was not as impressive this year on the clay as he was the past couple of seasons. In 2021 and 2022, he was victorious at Monte Carlo. His best showing in 2023 was reaching the Barcelona final, which he lost decisively to Alcaraz. Had he beaten Medvedev in Rome and been back in the final there, he might have come into Roland Garros with a clearer set of convictions, but I have my doubts at the moment about his game and his outlook.
Rounding out my list at No. 6 for Roland Garros is Ruud. But his setback against Rune in Rome was considerable. He needed a win in the worst possible way and fell narrowly short. Coming so close only to falter in the crunch was surely devastating for this thorough professional. And yet, the fact remains that he was the runner-up to Nadal a year ago in Paris. With the benefit of a good draw, he has an outside chance to replicate that feat this year, but it is still hard to envision him managing to win the title.
In my estimation, Jannik Sinner could make a decent run but I don’t see him getting across the finish line at Roland Garros or even reaching the final this year. His clay court campaign was disappointing. Andrey Rublev is not on my list of realistic contenders for the Roland Garros crown either.
In the ultimate analysis, it essentially comes down to the world No. 1 Alcaraz searching for a second major title; to Novak Djokovic looking not only for a third crown in Paris but a record 23rd major title in the process; to Daniil Medvedev going into the tournament believing for the first time that he can take it; and to Holger Rune timing his ascent impeccably and securing his first of the premier prizes. Tsitsipas and Ruud can’t be counted out, but they will need more than their share of good fortune to succeed.
I am expecting a championship run from Carlos Alcaraz, but, no matter what happens, the feeling grows that this is going to be one of those Grand Slam tournaments we will remember for a very long time.
