The women’s singles semifinals will be staged on Thursday, featuring four of the top 12 seeds.
The top two players in the world, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, are just one round away from a rematch of the Stuttgart final of two weeks ago. But first, they must respectively get past Veronika Kudermetova and Maria Sakkari.
Also on Thursday, the second two men’s singles quarterfinals will be decided. One features the fourth seed taking on a lucky loser, while the other includes two players ranked 99th and 121st in the world.
And the men’s doubles semifinals on Thursday feature four of the top eight seeds, as well as top singles players Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov.
Each day, this preview will analyze the two most intriguing matchups, while highlighting other notable matches on the schedule. Thursday’s play gets underway at 1:00pm local time.
Maria Sakkari (9) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Not Before 4:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
Sabalenka is a superb 27-4 on the year, and has reached the quarterfinals or better at every tournament she’s played. Aryna won this event two years ago, and has dropped only one set heading into this semifinal.
Sakkari is 19-8 this season, and into her fourth WTA semifinal of the year. This is Maria’s eighth 1000-level semifinal, and she is 2-5 in her previous seven.
Semifinals remain a considerable stumbling block in Sakkari’s career. She’s also 0-2 in Major semis, and 0-2 in the semis of the WTA Finals. Sabalenka had similar issues earlier in her career, going 0-3 in Major semis, though that ended this year in Melbourne when she broke through and claimed her first Slam.
This is a rematch from the same round of the last joint-1000 tournament in Miami, when Aryna defeated Maria 6-2, 6-3. Overall Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 5-3, with all eight matches taking place on hard courts.
Based on 2023 form, as well as Sakkari’s history in semifinals, Sabalenka is the favorite on Thursday. But the Greek has been playing some of her best tennis of the season this fortnight, and should provide plenty of resistance to Aryna on this day.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Veronika Kudermetova (12) – Not Before 9:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
Swiatek is 24-4 in 2023, and 8-0 on clay. And in almost Nadal-esque numbers, is now 52-7 lifetime on this surface at tour level. Iga is 6-1 in WTA 1000 semifinals, but her only loss came in her most recent appearance, two months ago at Indian Wells, in a loss to Elena Rybakina.
Kudermetova was just 10-9 this season before arriving in Madrid, having lost six of her last seven matches. But she’s competed excellently throughout this event. Veronika has won all four of her matches in three sets, and even saved a match point against Daria Kasatkina. This is her first WTA 1000 semifinal.
Swiatek is 3-0 against Kudermetova, and has frankly dominated all three meetings, with set scores of 6-3, 6-3, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0, 6-1. And those sets were all contested on hard courts. On clay, Iga’s best surface, the World No.1 is a huge favorite to advance to Saturday’s final.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Aslan Karatsev (Q) – Zhizhen has become the breakout story of this fortnight, with consecutive victories over Denis Shapovalov, Cam Norrie, and Taylor Fritz. And most notably, all three of those wins were in a third-set tiebreak, saving three match points against Fritz. This is the farthest a Chinese man has ever advanced as a Masters event. Karatsev also defeated three seeded players to reach this stage: Botic van de Zandschulp, Alex de Minaur, and Daniil Medvedev. Last October in Astana, Zhang beat Aslan in three sets.
Jan-Lennard Struff (LL) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) – Tsitsipas is 21-6 this season, and 9-2 on clay. He is playing for his 14th Masters semifinal, and his third in Madrid. Struff has now accumulated 32 match wins this year at all levels, and has won three consecutive three-setters. Stefanos is 3-2 against Jan-Lennard at tour level, but Struff took their only meeting on clay, four years ago in Barcelona.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.