The men’s semifinals take place on Friday, featuring four of the ATP’s best hard court players.
In the first semifinal, 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev faces 2022 US Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe. In the second semifinal, 2022 US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz plays Jannik Sinner, in a rematch of an epic US Open quarterfinal from six months ago.
Saturday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time with the women’s doubles championship, featuring Barbora Krejcikova and Katerinia Siniakova (1) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia and Laura Siegemund. Krejcikova and Siniakova have won 24 of their last 26 matches, as well as the last four Majors they’ve entered. By contrast, this is Haddad Maia and Siegemund’s first tournament as a team.
And on Saturday night after the men’s singles semifinals, the men’s doubles championship will be decided. It’s Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski (1) vs. Rohan Bopanna and Matthew Ebden. Koolhof and Skupski are vying for their first title of 2023, while Bopanna and Ebden won a title a few weeks ago in Doha.
Daniil Medvedev (5) vs. Frances Tiafoe (14) – Not Before 1:00pm on Stadium 1
“Tennis paradise” has been anything but for Daniil Medvedev. He was only 6-5 at this event prior to this fortnight, and has openly complained to anyone that will listen regarding the slow court speeds here, including this now famous rant. Medvedev also turned his ankle against Sascha Zverev earlier this week. Despite all that, Daniil is one win away from his seventh Masters 1000 final.
Frances Tiafoe loves playing on American hard courts. He’s advanced into the second week of the US Open for three consecutive years, highlighted by last year’s thrilling run to the semis. Frances has also reached the fourth round or better for four straight years in Miami. And his sole ATP title to date also came in the United States (Delray Beach). However, this is the first time he’s been beyond the third round in the desert, and this is his first ever Masters 1000 semifinal.
Medvedev is an undefeated 4-0 against Tiafoe, and has claimed 10 of their 11 sets contested. Though notably, they have not played in nearly two years, since the 2021 Miami Open, and Frances is a much-improved performer since that time. However, Daniil’s defensive skills have stifled the American’s power in the past, and the slower-playing hard courts in the desert should only make this easier to accomplish. I like Medvedev to extend his current winning streak to 19.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Jannik Sinner (11) – Third on Stadium 1
In September at the US Open, these two played for five hours and 15 minutes, and until nearly 3:00am, with Alcaraz eventually prevailing 6-3 in the fifth. Carlitos would of course go on to win his first Major just a few days later, while quarterfinals have remained a considerable stumbling block for Jannik, going 2-8 in that round last season. However, Sinner overcame some of that scar tissue on Thursday, when he defeated defending champion Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals.
Alcaraz is now 12-1 in 2023, after missing the Aussie swing due to injury. This is his second consecutive semifinal at Indian Wells. A year ago, he lost a dramatic semi here to Rafael Nadal, in a match played amidst extremely windy conditions.
Sinner 16-3 this season, and reached back-to-back hard court finals last month, winning the title in Montpellier. This is his second Masters 1000 semifinal, after advancing to and winning in this round of the 2021 Miami Open.
Overall their tour-level head-to-head is tied at 2-2, though Alcaraz has taken both of their hard courts meetings. Sinner’s victories have come on grass and clay. On this surface, I give Carlitos the slight edge to reach his third Masters 1000 final. Regardless of the result, I expect another tight, high-quality affair between these two, as both arrive to this semifinal in sharp form.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
