It’s championship Sunday in tennis paradise, featuring rematches from recent finals in the desert.
In the women’s singles championship match, it’s a rematch from the 2022 final, as World No.1 Iga Swiatek faces a rejuvenated Maria Sakkari. And the men’s singles championship match is a rematch from just a year ago, as Carlos Alcaraz takes on Daniil Medvedev. Will Iga and Carlitos become multi-time champions of this event, or will Maria and Daniil win their first Indian Wells titles?
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Maria Sakkari (9) – 11:00am on Stadium 1
This is yet another tournament during which Swiatek has gone completely unchallenged. She has not dropped a set, and lost only 17 games through nine completed sets. Iga is 7-2 in WTA 1000 finals, and an excellent 18-4 in tour finals overall.
By contrast, four out of Sakkari’s five matches this fortnight have gone three sets, including the last two against top Americans Coco Gauff and Emma Navarro. Friday’s night’s semifinal against Gauff was a dramatic, extended affair, which went late into the evening due to a long rain delay in the desert. Playing such a draining contest, and then coming back just 36 hours later to play at 11:00am in the morning, with be an extremely challenging turnaround for Maria.
After a subpar 2023 season, Sakkari is back to playing her best tennis, in the first tournament of the working relationship with her new coach, David Witt. She is 1-2 in WTA 1000 finals, though she just won her first title at this level six months ago in Guadalajara. But Maria is a meek 2-7 in tour finals, and as per Tennis Abstract, is just 3-7 against top 10 opposition within the last year.
Sakkari claimed their first two meetings, back in 2021 before Swiatek rose to the top of the sport. The last three have all gone to Iga, with the most recent being the 2022 final at this same event. All five of their matches have been straight-setters. So while this is Maria’s favorite event, and her new coach has helped restore her confidence, Iga remains a clear favorite to win her second title in Indian Wells.
Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Not Before 2:00pm on Stadium 1
Despite playing in a location where “it never rains,” both the men’s and women’s semifinals suffered from severe rain delays, leading to the men’s semis finishing much later on Saturday than expected. And both went three sets, so neither Alcaraz nor Medvedev will be fully fresh on Sunday. Carlitos came back from a set down to hand Jannik Sinner his first defeat of the year, while Daniil came from a set down to oust American Tommy Paul.
In the championship here a year ago, Alcaraz comfortably prevailed against a depleted Medvedev, who had won 19 matches in the month leading up to that final. They would go on to play three more times in 2023, with Carlitos taking three of four. However, Daniil was able to overcome the Spaniard in the US Open semifinals, winning 6-3 in the fourth. Overall Alcaraz is 3-2 against Medvedev.
Carlitos has not been the same player since losing the near four-hour final last summer in Cincinnati to Novak Djokovic. But his victory over Sinner on Saturday felt significant, and it brought him to his first final since that one in Cincinnati.
Alcaraz is 12-4 in ATP finals, and 4-1 at this level. Medvedev is 20-17 in ATP finals, and 6-3 in Masters finals. Hard courts easily remain Daniil’s strongest surface, though he made it painfully clear here a year ago that the slower-playing courts in Indian Wells are not to his liking. And coming off an inspiring effort to defeat Sinner, the ATP’s best player of the last six months, Carlitos should be favored to become the first man to defend this title since Djokovic in 2016.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
