With Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic all absent, the men’s singles event felt wide open before it even started. Nevertheless, having two finalists ranked outside the top 30 is quite a surprise. But these two young players potentially have a big upside, and one is about to win the biggest title of their career.
19-year-old Jannik Sinner first made his impression on tour in 2019, in his home country’s biggest event. In front of a raucous crowd at the Rome Masters, he upset Steve Johnson, while ranked 263rd in the world. Six months later, Sinner was the Italian wild card at the Next Gen Finals, and impressively won the event. Since the tour restart last August, he won his first two ATP titles. Now in only his third Masters 1000 appearance, he’s reached the championship match.
24-year-old Hubert Hurkacz first made his impression on tour in 2019, reaching the quarterfinals in Indian Wells with victories over Kei Nishikori and Denis Shapovalov. Later that year in the same country, he claimed his first ATP title in Winston-Salem. Hubi went a modest 15-13 in the abbreviated 2020 season, but started off 2021 with his second ATP title in Delray Beach. Now he’s advanced to his third ATP final, all of which have come in the United States.
Jannik Sinner (21) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (26) – 1:00pm local time
These two have never been on opposing sides of the net on tour, but they have shared a court. They teamed together in both Melbourne and Dubai this season, going 3-1 as a unit. They’ve spent almost the exact same time on court during this tournament, separated by only four minutes. Sinner’s biggest hurdles were a marathon encounter with Karen Khachanov, and a tight semifinal against Roberto Bautista Agut. Hurkacz survived a third set tiebreak against Milos Raonic, and upset second-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.
Hurkacz has served extremely well this fortnight, striking 51 aces and just 11 double faults. And he’s only been broken five times across six matches despite the courts in Miami playing rather slowly. Meanwhile, Sinner has been averaging 1.5 breaks per set with his penetrating groundstrokes. On a day forecast to be cooler and less humid, it will be extremely crucial for Hurkacz to serve big and win some free points. If this becomes a baseline battle, that’s advantage Sinner. As comfortable as Hubi is playing on US soil, especially since teaming up with American coach Craig Boynton in 2019, Jannik is the steadier, more consistent player. And slower conditions favor the Italian, who reached the quarterfinals of Roland Garros last fall. Jannik Sinner should be favored to become the newest first-time Masters champion since Daniil Medvedev two years ago in Cincinnati.
Also on Sunday, the Women’s Doubles Championship (Not before 3:30pm):
Shuko Aoyama and Ena Shibahara (5) vs. Hayley Carter and Luisa Stefani (8) – The Japanese team is looking for their third title of 2021, and have already defeated Carter and Stefani twice this season.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
