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ANALYSIS: Daniil Medvedev’s Run At The ATP Finals – Win Against Nadal Was The Turning point
Using two types of graphs, UbiTennis takes a closer look at the five matches won by Daniil Medvedev at the 2020 ATP Finals.
Let’s analyse the five matches won at the ATP Finals by Daniil Medvedev, using the graphical representations provided by Federico Bertelli. We have renamed the graphs as “The ride”, recalling the famous Wagnerian composition. The first series of graphs is made up of decision trees and illustrates the trend of Medvedev’s and his opponents behind their respective serves, from the first round robin match to the final won against Dominic Thiem.
These are the details of his debut match against Zverev. The graph is easy to read: on the right (in blue) the times he held his serve are represented, while the time he broke his opponent are on the left (in red). The thicker the segment that connects two scores, the more frequently that ‘path’ of play has been covered.
Medvedev’s solidity holding serve is undeniable, because he performed best in deuce receiver and deuce server situations. It can also be observed how the Russian got broken just once in his first three matches, against Zverev at 30-40, while against Nadal he was particularly in trouble with his own serve, as the Spaniard was the only one who broke him several times, taking advantage of some favourable scoring situations such as 0-40, 15-40 and deuce receiver.
However, against Thiem, although Medvedev found himself tangled in a decider, the trend reverts back to that of the round matches: the only chance that Thiem had to snatch the serve was on the deuce receiver. He had no other chance from 40-40.
The graphical analysis, corroborated by the thickness of the oblique blue lines, also shows the growing solidity of the Russian from match to match, winning the opening two points in his service games. This is a sign of a growing confidence in his game as the Russian advanced towards the final stages of the tournament, e.g. the semi-final and the final.
As for the situations in which Medvedev was particularly proficient on his opponent’s serve, the deuce receiver stands out, a circumstance that was present in all five matches, followed by the 30-40 – he broke on this situation against Zverev and Schwartzman.
AN OVERVIEW
The second series of graphs on Medvedev’s Valkyrian ride consists of radar graphs illustrating the classic statistics shown at the end of each match, which are equivalent to the following percentages – starting from the top and going clockwise: percentage of first serves in play, percentage of points won with his first and second serve, break points saved and converted, points won on the return against first and second serve, total points won, total points won on the return and on serve. What you see above is the diagram of Medvedev’s debut match: it is easy to see that he did better than Zverev in all statistics except for the percentage of first serves in play.
From the analysis of the first three matches of the group stage, even though the yellow area is predominant in almost all the statistical percentages, it’s clear that Medvedev was more effective in saving break points than his opponents (more than 80 percent against Zverev and 100 percent against Djokovic and Schwartzman), as well as in converting them. Against Schwartzman, he was actually bettered in the percentage of points won with the second service and in points won on the return against the opponent’s second serve.
However, in the next two matches the percentage profiles of break balls saved and converted change because Nadal’s and Thiem’s numbers are higher than the Medvedev’s. So, ultimately, it means that Medvedev conceded fewer break points and managed to convert those that his opponents offered him during the match.
That shows a great solidity.
If the general statistical profile of the Medvedev’s match against Thiem is similar to that of the matches won against Djokovic and Zverev, and in some ways to the one against Schwartzman as well, the statistics outline against Nadal is totally abnormal and should be considered as an outlier. The percentage of points won returning Nadal’s second serve and on his own second serve were the crucial ones. We will analyse this aspect in another article that will deal with Medvedev’s positioning on the return.
In conclusion, from the analysis of the statistical profiles, it appears that the semi-final bout against Nadal was the toughest obstacle that Medvedev had to overcome in his ride to success in a tournament in which he turned out more than anyone to be able (perhaps naturally) to give the match the desired direction, even when the numbers were not completely by his side.
Article by Andrea Canella; translated by Alice Nagni; edited by Tommaso Villa
Olympic tennis gets underway on Saturday in Paris, on the grounds of Roland Garros.
While not traditionally thought of as an Olympic sport, the tennis event at the last several Summer Olympic Games has provided some of the sport’s most memorable and emotional moments. Representing their country at the Olympics is one of the biggest achievements in the lives of many tennis players, and the 2024 event being staged at Roland Garros is unquestionably a very special one.
This will be the last tournament in the careers of a pair of three-time Major champions: Andy Murray and Angelique Kerber. And this will be the last Olympics, and likely the last time playing at Roland Garros, for 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal. Rafa’s status for singles is in doubt, but he is committed to playing men’s doubles alongside four-time Major champ Carlos Alcaraz.
Nadal and Alcaraz will play their opening round doubles match on Saturday evening, while Kerber faces fellow multi-time Major champ Naomi Osaka in a blockbuster first round contest to close out the night session. The day session sees both of the top seeds in the singles draws, Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek, play their opening round matches.
The draws for men’s singles, women’s singles, men’s doubles, women’s doubles, and mixed doubles will all be played across the next nine days in Paris.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Saturday’s play begins at 12:00pm local time.
Alcaraz and Nadal practicing this week (twitter.com/ITFTennis
Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni [ARG] (6) vs. Carlos Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal [ESP] – 7:00pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Eight years ago, Nadal won the gold medal in men’s singles at the Rio Olympics, alongside Marc Lopez. And eight years before that, he claimed the gold medal in men’s singles at the Beijing Olympics, notably defeating Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. Now he goes for a third gold medal, teaming with the reigning Roland Garros and Wimbledon men’s singles champion.
But this is a physically compromised, 38-year-old version of Rafa, who has only played six events within the last 18 months. And while he reached the final just last week in Bastad, that run apparently took a toll on his body. There are reports he may be pulling out of the singles draw in Paris, as a four-hour quarterfinal match last week against Mariano Navone certainly drained the King of Clay.
This will be the first time these two Spanish all-time greats team up, and both have rarely played doubles in their careers. By contrast, Gonzalez and Molteni are both top 20 doubles players. And while they didn’t team together during the grass court season, they’ve won seven titles together within the last 18 months.
However, facing these two Roland Garros champions on Court Philippe-Chatrier will be a daunting task. And Nadal should be less hampered on the doubles court than the singles court. I expect Rafa and Carlitos to embrace the energy of the Saturday night crowd in Paris, and advance to the next round.
Naomi Osaka [JPN] vs. Angelique Kerber [GER] – Last on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Both of these players returned from maternity at the start of the year, though neither has yet rediscovered their top form. 26-year-old Osaka has shown glimpses of it, specifically two months ago at this same venue, when she was just a point away from upsetting Iga Swiatek. 36-year-old Kerber is just 7-14 since returning, and arrives in Paris on a five-match losing streak. Angie announced earlier this week that she will retire from the sport following these Olympic Games.
These two sure-fire Hall of Famers played six times between 2017 and 2022, with Kerber taking four of those six encounters. However, most of those occurred while Angie was at her best, and before Naomi had reached her top level. They’ve never before played on clay, which is certainly neither’s favorite surface.
In the last tournament of her career, Kerber will be extra motivated to achieve a good result. And she’s done so before at the Olympics, as she was the silver medalist back in 2016. At the last Olympics in Tokyo, Osaka seemed distracted and overwhelmed playing in her home country’s Games. But this season, she’s been extremely focused on her tennis, and has dedicated herself to better acclimating to playing on clay. Based on her performance in Paris two months ago, I like Naomi’s chances of prevailing on Saturday, and thus ending Angie’s singles career.
Swiatek practicing this week (twitter.com/ITFTennis)
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Iga Swiatek [POL] (1) vs. Irina-Camelia Begu [ROU] – Swiatek is 21-1 this year on clay, and is on a 19-match win streak on this surface. Three years ago at Wimbledon, she thumped Begu by a score of 6-1, 6-0.
Jack Draper [GBR] vs. Kei Nishikori [JPN] – Nishikori was a bronze medalist at the Rio Olympics, but injuries have only allowed him to play four ATP events across the last three seasons. Draper currently sits at a career-high ranking of No.26, thanks to 21 match wins in 2024.
Novak Djokovic [SRB[ (1) vs. Matthew Ebden [AUS] – An Olympic gold medal is the one glaring blemish on the Djokovic CV, and at 37 years of age, this will most certainly be his last good chance to win the gold for Serbia, which might mean more to Novak than any of his other career accomplishments. Ebden replaces Andy Murray in the singles draw, and the Australian hasn’t played a singles match in over two years, as the ITF bizarrely uses doubles players already on site as singles alternates.
Hady Habib [LBN] vs. Carlos Alcaraz [ESP] (2) – Alcaraz will play both singles and doubles on Saturday, and he’s now 33-6 on the year in singles, coming off his fourth Major title at Wimbledon. Habib is a 25-year-old representing Lebanon who has never been ranked inside the world’s top 250.
Rinky Hijikata [AUS] vs. Daniil Medvedev [AIN] (4) – Three years ago at the Tokyo Olympics, Medvedev lost in the quarterfinals to eventual bronze medalist Pablo Carreno Busta. Hijikata peaked at No.70 in singles last season, but is just 10-16 in 2024.
Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula [USA] (1) vs. Ellen Perez and Daria Saville [AUS] – Gauff will be the flag bearer for the United States during Friday’s opening ceremony, after missing the Tokyo Games due to COVID. Her and Pegula are regular partners, while Perez and Saville are not, though Perez is a top 10 doubles player.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
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