With the ATP Finals in London just six weeks away, half of the eight qualifying spots for the singles event have already been secured. But with two Masters 1,000 events and four 500-level events left to be played, there are a lot of points at stake for the players competing for the remaining spots.
Here’s a look at the current year-to-date standings heading into the China and Japan Opens this week, starting with the players that have already officially qualified for the WTA Finals and the points they’ve accumulated this year (their 2019 titles are in parenthesis).
1) Rafael Nadal, 9,225 points (Roland Garros, US Open, Rome, Montreal)
2) Novak Djokovic, 7,265 points (Australian Open, Wimbledon, Madrid)
3) Roger Federer, 5,510 points (Miami, Dubai, Halle)
4) Daniil Medvedev, 4,875 points (Cincinnati, Sofia, St. Petersburg)
The following players have not officially qualified, but most likely will, as accumulating more than 3,000 points is usually enough.
5) Dominic Thiem, 3,845 points (Indian Wells, Barcelona, Kitzbuhel)
6) Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3,160 points (Marseille, Estoril)
If none of these six players withdraw from the ATP Finals, that leaves just two spots open. However, with Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Tsitsipas all battling injuries of late, there’s a good chance that not all of them will compete in London, which would open up some extra space. After the top six in the race, there are six players separated by just 315 points. Here’s a look at those players, their current form, and their chances of qualifying.
7) Roberto Bautista Agut, 2,395 points (Doha) – It’s been a career year for the Spaniard, who finds himself inside the top 10 for the first time in his career. His 2019 was strong right from the start, defeating Novak Djokovic in his way to the Doha title in the first week of the season. He then made the quarter-finals of the Australian Open with three five-set victories. And Roberto would reach his first Major semifinal at Wimbledon. And he’s still playing well, having reached the semis this past week in Zhuhai. Knowing he’s currently in qualifying position to make his ATP Finals debut, can he maintain his form and hold off the competition?
8) Matteo Berrettini, 2,185 points (Budapest, Stuttgart) – The 23-year-old Italian is currently in the eighth and final qualifying position, boosted by his recent run to his first Major semifinal in New York. This is new territory for Berrettini, who a year ago was ranked outside the top 50. With four players nipping at his heels, with 105 points or less separating the players ranked from eighth to 12th in the race, Matteo can ill afford a let-down if he wants to make his ATP Finals debut. In the opening round of Beijing this week, he has a challenging opponent by the name of Sir Andy Murray.
9) Kei Nishikori, 2,180 points (Brisbane) – Nishikori is only five points outside the top eight in the race, but that will change quickly as Kei has pulled out of the Japan Open and Shanghai Masters due to right arm and elbow issues. He plans to return later in October, and will likely need at least a few match wins in Vienna and Paris in order to move into qualifying position.
10) Gael Monfils, 2,125 points (Rotterdam) – Here’s a bizarre yet true statement: Monfils has been one of 2019’s most consistent performers. He’s reached the quarter-finals or better at eight events this season. He’s vying to qualify for the ATP Finals for the second time. In the first round of Beijing, he faces a man who is rarely fun to play: John Isner.
11) Sascha Zverev, 2,120 points (Geneva) – It’s been a tough season for the ATP Finals champion of a year ago, filled with off-court distractions. Much like the reigning WTA Finals champion Elina Svitolina, he’s in danger of missing this year’s event as the defending champion. But perhaps clinching the Team Europe victory at the Laver Cup for the second straight year will be exactly what he needs to get him back on track. Zverev gets Frances Tiafoe in the opening round of Beijing, whom he defeated in five sets at the US Open.
12) David Goffin, 2,080 points – Two years ago, Goffin was the runner-up at the ATP Finals, and defeated both Nadal and Federer on his way to the final. However, since a few freak injuries in 2018, David has struggled to rediscover his form. Goffin is playing in Tokyo this week, and takes on Pablo Carreno Busta in his first round match.
Beyond those current top 12, there’s Fabio Fognini (1,965 points) and Diego Schwartzman (1,850 points) who are both within striking distance with one good run this fall. The next two weeks will go a long way in determining who goes to London, with two 500-level events this week (Beijing and Tokyo) and the Shanghai Masters next week. And the only two legitimate threats to end the year as world No.1 are Nadal and Djokovic. Considering Rafa’s 2,000-point lead, and the shoulder injury Novak has been nursing, Nadal is the favorite to claim his fifth year-end crown. This would tie him with both Djokovic and Federer in that category, further muddying the GOAT argument waters.
