By Matthew Marolf
In the women’s final, we have the two best WTA clay court players of the past several years. In the men’s semi-finals, we have the three best ATP clay court players of the past several years, plus a 20-year-old who’s on a seven-match win streak on the terra baute. Today will go a long way in deciding who are the favourites heading into Roland Garros.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Dominic Thiem (5)
Djokovic should be extremely fresh for this semi-final, thanks to the withdrawal of Marin Cilic from yesterday’s quarterfinal. On the other hand, Thiem is coming off a dramatic win just yesterday over Roger Federer, where he saved two match points in an extended second set tiebreak. Since the Australian Open, Thiem has been the better of the two players. Prior to this week, Djokovic was just 5-3 since winning his 15th Major. Thiem meanwhile won the biggest title of his career in Indian Wells, and also hoisted the trophy just two weeks ago in Barcelona.
Novak easily took their first five meetings, but Dominic took the last two, both of which were played on clay. Two years ago at Roland Garros, Thiem upended Djokovic in straight sets. And last year in Monte Carlo, Thiem came back from a set down to eliminate Djokovic. It’s reasonable to say the winner here should be considered the second favourite for the French Open, of course behind Rafael Nadal.
Novak hasn’t defeated a player ranked inside the top 40 since the Australian, so he’ll need to considerably up his level from what we’ve seen over the past few months to prevail. Based on recent form, it’s hard not to consider Thiem the favourite, though I do expect Djokovic to start building up momentum heading into Roland Garros.
Simona Halep (3) vs. Kiki Bertens (7)
This is a rematch from last year’s final in Cincinnati, where Bertens came back from a set down to upset the then-world No.1 for the biggest title of her career. Overall Halep leads their head-to-head 3-2, and they’ve split their two matches on clay. Halep has been less than her best self in 2019, coming off a back injury that prematurely ended her 2018 She also split with Darren Cahill in the offseason. But she finally seems to have herself sorted out this week, playing the best tennis of her year thus far.
Bertens returns to the Madrid final for the second straight year, having lost to Petra Kvitova in 2018. The 27-year-old is coming off the best season of her career, where she qualified for the WTA finals for the first time. And she hasn’t slowed sown this year, already with 23 match wins. She’s yet to drop a set this week in Madrid, and beat two top 10 players in the past two days. With a win today, Bertens would debut in the top five, while Halep would regain the No.1 ranking if she takes the title. Kiki is the player who with more confidence at this time, and I like her chances to defeat Halep in another significant final.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (8)
In three previous meetings, Nadal is 3-0 against Tsitsipas, having yet to drop a set. That includes a match on clay last year in Barcelona, as well as earlier this year in the Australian Open semi-finals. Is Tsitsipas ready to test Nadal for the first time?
Judging by Nadal’s form yesterday, it will be a tall task. We finally saw the Rafael Nadal of old yesterday in his demolition of Stan Wawrinka, losing just three games. And Tsitispas must be a bit weary coming into this semi-final, having played a total of 11 singles and doubles matches over the past 10 days. In the 10 times Nadal has played in the semis of this tournament, he’s 9-1. On clay in his home country’s capital, he’ll be the strong favourite to reach his 10th final.
