The finals in both men’s and women’s singles will be played on Sunday.
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are separating themselves from the rest of the WTA field, using their power to dominate the sport’s biggest events. Rybakina defeated Sabalenka in the championship match of November’s WTA Finals, as well as in the championship match of January’s Australian Open. Can she make a three-peat on Sunday?
The best ATP player of 2026 is missing from Sunday’s championship match, as World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz was upset in Saturday’s semifinals by Daniil Medvedev, who will face Jannik Sinner in the final. Medvedev was able to turn around what had recently been a lopsided rivalry against Alcaraz on Saturday. Can he do the same against Sinner on Sunday?
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Elena Rybakina (3) – 2:00pm on Stadium 1
Since the start of November, Sabalenka has gone 20-2, with the only two losses coming at the hands of her opponent on Sunday. During 2026, she hasn’t even lost a set to anyone else. But no one else on tour can match the power of Sabalenka like Rybakina does. Two months ago in the Australian Open final, Aryna and Elina shared nearly identical average serve speeds. And even though it was Sabalenka who owned a slightly better winners-to-unforced-errors ratio, the stat that mattered that day was break point conversions: Rybakina went three for six, while Sabalenka went only two for eight.
Elena has continued to suffer losses at smaller events, with a record of 17-3 on the year. But she has upped her level at big events, especially when facing Aryna. Overall their head-to-head stands at 8-7 in Sabalenka’s advantage, though Rybakina leads 7-5 on hard courts. When they met in the same round of this same event three years ago, Rybakina won the title in straight sets, after claiming a prolonged first-set tiebreak.
The courts in Indian Wells are playing a bit faster this year, and Sunday is forecasted to be another scorching hot day, though I’m not convinced those conditions provide either player with a definitive edge. So based on their recent history, I favor Rybakina to win this title for the second time.
Daniil Medvedev (11) vs. Jannik Sinner (2) – Not Before 2:00pm on Stadium 1
Sinner has bounced back nicely after disappointing losses to start the year in both Melbourne and Doha, advancing to this final without the loss of a set. Outside of his two-hour battle with Joao Fonseca, the rest of his matches this fortnight have barely lasted an hour, as he’s clinically worked his way through the draw. This is his first championship match at this event, after twice before stalling in the semifinals. Jannik is 5-4 in Masters 1000 finals, with his only two recent losses both coming against Alcaraz.
Medvedev lost in the final here in both 2023 and 2024, which both of those losses also coming against Alcaraz. But after going nearly two-and-a-half years without a title, Daniil is now playing for his fourth title within the past five months. Daniil has made several changes to his coaching team, with both Gilles Cervara and Gilles Simon departing, and former Australian Open champ Thomas Johansson joining. The refreshing of his team has also refreshed his game: Medvedev is 18-3 this season, and like Sinner, has won all 10 sets he’s played these past two weeks. He now vies for his biggest title in nearly three years, and owns a record of 6-5 in finals at this level.
Just like the head-to-head in Sunday’s women’s singles final, the head-to-head between Sinner and Medvedev stands at 8-7, in Sinner’s ever-so-slight favor. Medvedev took their first six meetings, yet Sinner has now taken eight of their last nine, with the only loss during that span taking place on grass. Sinner has beaten Medvedve eight straight times on hard courts. However, Jannik has been known to wilt in hot conditions, and this match will be staged during the hottest part of the day. I think this resurgent version of Daniil has a real shot of earning this title, but betting against Jannik on a hard court is a risky proposition, especially given how long it’s been since he lost to this opponent on this surface. So Sinner remains the slight favorite to collect his first Indian Wells title on Sunday.
