Fourth round singles action begins on Tuesday in Indian Wells.
In typical fashion, Iga Swiatek has advanced through her first two rounds with complete ease, and via set scores of 6-2, 6-0, 6-2, and 6-0. But on Tuesday, she plays a familiar and formidable foe in Karolina Muchova, who pushed Swiatek deep into a third set two years ago in a thrilling Roland Garros final.
The other three round of 16 WTA singles match on Tuesday are also pretty compelling. Elena Rybakina faces Mirra Andreeva, who upset Rybakina just a few weeks ago in Dubai. Plus Jessica Pegula takes on Elina Svitolina, and Qinwen Zheng squares off against Marta Kostyuk.
ATP action is headlined by a red-hot Stefanos Tsitsipas clashing with Holger Rune, and in a matchup between two top 10 seeds, Daniil Medvedev battles Tommy Paul.
This preview will analyze the two most prominent matches of the day, while taking note of the other singles quarterfinals. Tuesday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Karolina Muchova (15) vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – 11:00am on Stadium 1
Swiatek is now 20-2 at Indian Wells, matching her best record a WTA 1000 event, as she’s also 20-2 in Rome. The slow-playing hard courts in the California desert play at more of a clay court speed, which is very much to Iga’s liking. And while Swiatek is a strong 16-4 on the season, she has not advanced to a WTA final since Roland Garros nine months ago.
Like Swiatek, Muchova is also yet to drop a set through two rounds, in what is shockingly just her second career appearance at Indian Wells. Of course the 28-year-old’s career has been plagued by injuries, and she even received a medical timeout during her third round match on Sunday against Katerina Siniakova. But if Karolina is healthy, she’s proven she can be a huge threat to Iga.
Muchova won their first encounter in three sets, though that occurred six years ago on clay. They didn’t play again until the aforementioned 2023 Roland Garros final, where Swiatek required nearly three hours to put Muchova away 6-4 in the third. They’ve played twice more within the past two seasons, both times on hard courts, and both times with Iga prevailing. Swiatek is the favorite again on Tuesday, but not by much, and I do not expect set scores of 6-2 or 6-0 against the dangerous variety of Muchova.
Holger Rune (12) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (8) – Not Before 1:00pm on Stadium 1
Tsitsipas got off to a rough 3-5 start to his season, but everything turned around two weeks ago in Dubai, where he won the title with victories over five top 50 players. Stefanos is now on a seven-match win streak, after defeating Matteo Berrettini in straight sets on Sunday with some of the best tennis we’ve seen from the Greek in quite some time. He’s only 9-6 lifetime at Indian Wells, with just one quarterfinal appearance.
Rune achieved his first Indian Wells quarterfinal a year ago, and he’s 6-4 here now after outlasting Ugo Humbert in the last round by a score of 7-5 in the third. Holger is a meek 8-6 on the year, and arrived in “Tennis Paradise” having lost three of his last four matches, including a retirement two weeks ago in Acapulco due to a shoulder issue. The 21-year-old is yet to fully realize his potential, and he’s now resided outside of the top 10 for nearly a year.
However, Rune is undefeated against Tsitsipas, with a 3-0 record. He upset Stefanos three years ago at Roland Garros, and also notably beat him later that year in the final of Stockholm on a hard court. Yet while this matchup hasn’t gone Tsitsipas’ way in the past, current form dictates he must be favored to earn his first win over Rune on Tuesday afternoon.
Other Notable Matches on Tuesday:
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Yosuke Watanuki (Q) – Griekspoor has already upset both Alexander Zverev and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard during the first week of this event. Watanuki won five matches across seven days during the first week (including qualifying), most recently taking out two top 20 seeds (Machac, Tiafoe).
Elina Svitolina (23) vs. Jessica Pegula (4) – Pegula is 5-2 against Svitolina, and has claimed their last five hard court meetings, which includes a 6-1, 6-1 victory four years ago in Indian Wells.
Marcos Giron vs. Arthur Fils (20) – Fils overcame Lorenzo Mustti on Sunday night in a high-quality three-setter, even saving a match point, to reach the fourth round at a Masters 1000 event for the first time. Giron is another debutante at this stage of a Masters, after upsetting both Casper Ruud and Alexei Popyrin.
Tommy Paul (10) vs. Daniil Medvedev (5) – Medvedev only played two games on Sunday before an ill Alex Michelsen retired. Paul eliminated 2021 champ Cam Norrie in straights. Daniil took their first three encounters, but Tommy took the last one, though that was on clay. In the semifinals of this tournament a year ago, Medvedev beat Paul in three sets.
Elena Rybakina (7) vs. Mirra Andreeva (9) – In the Dubai semifinals, Andreeva defeated Rybakina 6-3 in the third. Elena won their other prior encounter in three sets, back in October of 2023. Neither player has dropped a set through two rounds.
Qinwen Zheng (8) vs. Marta Kostyuk (18) – These players have split a pair of three-setters: Qinwen prevailed two summers ago in Canada on a hard court, while Kostyuk prevailed last spring in Stuttgart on clay.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
