These are very gratifying times for Daniil Medvedev. The 27-year-old has been in five consecutive finals, winning four titles in that span. He has secured victory in 29 of 32 matches across 2023, including 24 of his last 25 contests. Medvedev took the Miami Open title for the first time in his career with a 7-5, 6-3 final round triumph over Jannik Sinner, and has now amassed 19 career titles, all in different cities.
The Russian competitor has often headed into the clay court circuit in Europe with a low morale and deep misgivings, but this year could be a different story after his spectacular string of powerful performances on the hard courts, which have always brought out the best he has to offer. Making his latest surge all the more remarkable is the fact that he started 2023 as disappointingly as he concluded 2022. At the ATP Finals in Turin, Medvedev was beaten in all three of his round-robin assignments, losing each of those matches in final set tie-breaks. In two of those meetings—against Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic—Medvedev served for the match. His hard times continued this year with a semifinal setback against Djokovic in Adelaide and a stunning, straight-sets defeat against Sebastian Korda in the third round of the Australian Open.
Medvedev then fell outside the top ten in the world, and too many of us underestimated him at that juncture. No one was suggesting that the 2021 U.S. Open champion was finished as a top flight competitor, but it was unimaginable that he could raise his game so swiftly and mightily over the last couple of months— and yet he has done precisely that. Before I move on to his latest exploits in Miami, let’s review what he has done to restore his confidence and rebuild his game with such persuasion.
It commenced in Rotterdam, where he upended Sinner 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 in a hard-fought final on February 19. The following week in Doha, he ousted Andy Murray 6-4, 6-4 to take the crown there. Competing for the third week in a row at Dubai, he opened the month of March almost invincibly, ending a four-match losing streak against Djokovic with a 6-4, 6-4 semifinal triumph, and then obliterating countryman Andrey Rublev 6-2, 6-2 in the title round. No one even pushed him beyond 6-4 in a set that entire week.
After a brief break, Medvedev moved on to Indian Wells in search of a fourth straight title on the ATP Tour. He complained constantly about the slowness of the hard courts at that California event, but still reached the final before a masterful Carlos Alcaraz took him apart 6-3, 6-2. His 19-match winning streak—the second longest of his career—was over, but his self-esteem remained undiminished.
Medvedev quickly resumed his winning ways on the hard courts in Florida, crushing Roberto Carballes Baena in the second round after a first round bye. He was given a walkover in the third round as Alex Molcan was unable to play. Next Medvedev accounted for the Frenchman Quentin Halys 6-4, 6-2. In the quarterfinals, he overcame the aggressive game plan deployed by the American Chris Eubanks, taking that encounter 6-3, 7-5. And then he was victorious in a three-set semifinal against Karen Khachanov. In the end, Medvedev was marginally better than a countryman who has reached the semifinals of the last two Grand Slam tournaments, prevailing 7-6 (5), 3-6, 6-3.
Across the net in the Miami final stood none other than Sinner, who has been on a decidedly upward path himself as of late. He lost a five-set match in the fourth round of the Australian Open to eventual finalist Tsitsipas, but won his next tournament in Montpellier, France, defeating the towering Maxime Cressy in the final. Then he lost that well-played Rotterdam final to Medvedev before making it to the semifinals at Indian Wells. Alcaraz beat him there, but Sinner performed admirably.
At the Miami Open, Sinner put the Indian Wells defeat emphatically behind him and his form was sparkling en route to the final. He was at the top of his game and did not drop a set on his way to the penultimate round, erasing Grigor Dimitrov and Rublev commandingly along the way. Then he took on Alcaraz in the semifinals in a dandy of a battle under the lights.
Sinner was out-duelling the Spaniard from the baseline in the early stages. Knocking the cover off the ball, taking his two-handed backhand down the line purposefully and more frequently than usual, beating Alcaraz to the punch time and again, and returning serve deep down the middle with astoundingly regular success, the Italian moved in front 4-1 and reached 15-30 on Alcaraz’s serve in the sixth game— only to mismanage an easy overhead. The tenacious Spaniard eventually held on.
In the following game, with Sinner serving at 4-2, 0-15, these two electrifying players produced a gem of a 25-stroke exchange that was surely the best rally we have seen all year long in the men’s game. Alcaraz drew Sinner in with a drop shot and seemed to have set up a point-winning backhand pass down the line. Somehow Sinner tracked that ball down and half-volleyed from almost behind him to stay alive. Eventually, Alcaraz laced a deep forehand down the line that Sinner could only stab at off the backhand, going short crosscourt but keeping the ball low. Alcaraz sliced an approach to the Sinner backhand that looked as good as gold, but Sinner rolled a backhand passing shot sharply crosscourt for a startling winner.
The fans stood and applauded. Sinner justifiably strutted. Alcaraz smiled. But soon Alcaraz broke back, and not long after he was level at 4-4. The Spaniard broke again for 6-5 but double-faulted at set point in the twelfth game. Now Sinner gave himself a second chance by breaking serve to reach a tie-break and building a 4-2 lead. Alcaraz, however, was undismayed, sweeping five points in a row to win the set.
After Sinner moved in front 2-0 in the second set, Alcaraz collected three games in a row. When Sinner served at 3-4, he twice rescued himself from break point down as Alcaraz missed a forehand return on one and a forehand crosscourt winner attempt on the second. The Spaniard could have been serving for the match but instead it was 4-4. Sinner took the next two games confidently and then Alcaraz went for a bathroom break. When he returned, he was suffering from cramps and Sinner pounced. From break point down at 3–4 in the second until he led 2-0 in the third, Sinner not only won five games in a row but also secured 19 of 21 points.
Alcaraz— who had also been troubled by falling on his left-hand which led to a loss of power off that side—fought on with typical gumption and even held from 1-3, 0-30 in the third set. He then had a break point with Sinner serving in the sixth game but the Italian produced a fine second serve to the backhand to save it. Sinner came through deservedly 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-2. How large a factor were the physical woes of Alcaraz? That is difficult to assess, but no doubt Sinner would have been hard to beat in the third set under any circumstances. He deserved to even his career series with the Spaniard at 3-3. To be sure, luck played a role in the outcome of this clash, just as it did last September at the U.S. Open when Alcaraz escaped from match point down in the fourth set and a service break down in the middle of the fifth set to win that astounding skirmish.
In any case, when the Sinner-Medvedev Miami Open final became a reality, seasoned observers had high hopes for a pulsating confrontation. It could not be overlooked that Medvedev had won all five of his head-to-head collisions against Sinner. But Sinner had come off his uplifting upset over Alcaraz and some experts believed he was ready to defeat the Russian for the first time ever. Sinner had only appeared in one Masters 1000 tournament final in his career, losing to Hubert Hurkacz two years ago in Miami. Medvedev, meanwhile, had already captured four of these prestigious prizes. Be that as it may, he was only a slight favourite going into the final.
But Sinner would disclose afterwards that he had not been feeling well the morning of his match with Medvedev. Nevertheless, the Italian overcame some early difficulties to put himself in an advantageous position. He saved a break point and survived a four deuce game to hold on for 1-1. At 2-2, he exploited an abysmal service game from Medvedev, who led 30-0 before releasing two double faults in a row. The rest of that game was, to say the least, messy from Medvedev. Sinner eventually secured a 3-2 lead on his fifth break point with an elegant drop volley winner.
Nonetheless, it was apparent that Sinner was suffering with his energy supply. Medvedev sensed that. He broke right back for 3-3 as Sinner erred off the forehand. At the next changeover, the trainer gave Sinner some pills. The two players fought on to 5-5 but clearly Medvedev now had the upper hand. He held on easily and then broke Sinner again on a cluster of weary mistakes from the Italian. Medvedev had taken eight of the last ten points to seal the set 7-5, and he never looked back.
Medvdev swept the first two games of the second set confidently. He had now won four games in a row and 16 of the last 20 points. Sinner managed to break back in the third game but a determined Medvedev retaliated to make it 3-1 in his favor. As was the case the whole tournament, Medvedev was not wasting any opportunities, converting 17 of 24 break points. Thereafter, Medvedev was dominant in his own service games, taking 12 of the last 15 points in completing a decisive 7-5, 6-3 victory. Serving for the match at 5-3, he did not concede a point. Medvedev has now won all of the Masters 1000 hard court tournaments with the exception of Indian Wells, where he reached the final. By virtue of his resurgence, Medvedev has moved back up to No. 4 in the world.
And so the players now head out onto the clay, and soon they will assemble in Monte Carlo for the first important Masters 1000 tournament on that surface. Djokovic—who has regained the No. 1 ranking after Alcaraz’s loss to Sinner—will be eager to reassert himself after not being allowed to compete in the U.S. Alcaraz should be in good spirits despite his loss to Sinner in Florida. Sinner should be able to build on the platform he has built all year long on hard courts, and do well on the dirt.
As for Medvedev, he has yet to win a tournament on clay in his esteemed career. He will be fascinating to watch in the weeks ahead after such a sterling stretch on the hard courts. There can be no doubt that right now the three best players in the world are Djokovic, Alcaraz and Medvedev. The battle for worldwide supremacy in 2023 will ultimately come down to them—and perhaps Tsitsipas and Sinner in due course. Meanwhile, we eagerly await the return of the king of clay, Rafael Nadal, some time soon, perhaps in Monte Carlo but perhaps not.
This much is certain: the road ahead will be immensely compelling as the leading players pursue the largest prizes as they head toward Roland Garros, Wimbledon and, at the end of summer, the U.S. Open. The next six months figure to be riveting across the board.
