ANALYSIS Of Jannik Sinner Vs Daniil Medvedev: There Is Still Something Missing In Sinner's Serve - UBITENNIS
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ANALYSIS Of Jannik Sinner Vs Daniil Medvedev: There Is Still Something Missing In Sinner’s Serve

Given his recent success in Montpellier, Ubitennis takes a close look at Jannik Sinner’s match against Dnaiil Medvedev in the final of the Rotterdam Open last Sunday. The Italian was defeated by Medvedev who shift his gear up and knocked Sinner down.

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1 year ago

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Jannik Sinner (Roberto Dell'Olivo)

By Federico Bertelli

Sunday’s match was a sort of maturity test for the Italian player, who was beaten but showed that he is on the right track. The problem, however, is that overthrowing a top 5 player who plays at his best, is still a tall order.

General overview: once again, we take this opportunity to present our own elaboration of the main dimensions of analysis regarding service and return:

1st_in – percentage of first serves in

1st_won – percentage of points won on first serves

2nd_won – percentage of points won on second serves

Bp_saved – percentage of break points saved

Bp_converted – percentage of break points converted

1st_ret_won – percentage of points won on return of opponent’s first serve

2nd_ret_won – percentage of points won on return of opponent’s second serve

Pt_won – percentage of total points won

Ret_won – percentage of points won on return Srv_won – percentage of points won on serve

The advantage of this visualization is that it allows us to immediately see the dominance of one player over the other for the various dimensions of analysis. What we see first and foremost is how much of the difference was made by Medvedev’s ability to increase the percentage of first serves in after the first set. At this level, a gap of more than 12% in first serves in is a considerable handicap, so hats off to Medvedev for shifting a couple of gears in his game. It is interesting to note that Jannik was able to match Medvedev’s performance on second serves; in fact, this is an extremely comforting data point considering the quality of the Russian player’s rallies and the fact that the match often played out in extended rallies. Of course, this is a big improvement for Sinner compared to last Sunday’s match against Cressy.

Service directions: based on the charting provided at the end of the article, we have graphically represented the serving choices of the two players:

The graphs can be read as follows: the blue arrows represent the directions of serves from the even court side (with the players serving from right to left). The yellow arrows represent the directions of serves from the odd court side (with the players serving from left to right). The thickness of the arrow visually indicates how much a certain direction was chosen over the other. The values are expressed in percentage, with the service area divided into 6 zones:

Services on the deuce side
    Wide serves
    Body serves
    T Serves 
Services on the advantage side
    Wide serves
    Body serves
    T Serves

With reference to the choices on the first serve, we have fairly similar predictions, except for the distribution of the wide serve on the even side. In this case, Medvedev had a greater intent in seeking the open angle.

On the second serve, Sinner’s choice was mainly to go for a kick serve with a central bounce, with the aim of giving Medvedev few angles to respond with. On his part, the Russian favoured a greater search for the outer angles in his second serve. In terms of the efficiency of their choices, we can see that Sinner could have favoured the first serve going wide on the even side more, while in general, he had difficulty taking Medvedev out of position on the advantage side. In this situation, the Russian was very good at handling Sinner’s outer serves and starting long exchanges. On the other hand, Medvedev was able to construct advantageous situations on his first serve, often using variations of serves to the centre and to the wide side.

Return performance: Both players were extremely conservative, as they rarely tried to enter aggressively on the opponent’s second serve. In particular, when Medvedev served a second serve, Sinner was aggressive on only 12% of occasions and he won the point in all those instances. The problem for the Italian was that Medvedev’s second serves with less pace were really few, so the window of opportunity was rather slim. However, as the match progressed and with the increasing pressure imposed by the Moscow native, a solution could have been to try going for outright winners with more aggressive returns. This could be a key to Jannik’s future development, the ability to attack his opponent’s second serve. On the other hand, Medvedev always positioned himself calmly at the back of the court, grinding out points and minimizing Sinner’s chances to hit winning serves.

The graphic of the Russian’s position in response, both on the first and second serve, is particularly telling in this regard:

Sinner, on the other hand, had a more proactive approach, both on the first and second serve, but unfortunately, as we have seen, it did not translate into a greater ability to take control of the point from the return.

Length of rallies: it’s worth noting how this was a particularly intense match for indoor standards; compared to a match like last week’s between Cressy and Sinner, in which the prevalence of short rallies was clear, Sunday saw a completely different context:

The distribution is quite clear: Sinner was able to keep up with Medvedev in extended rallies, which is not at all obvious against a player of such tactical and physical skills as Medvedev. However, the Russian was able to demonstrate greater efficiency on his first serve, which allowed him to slam the door in Sinner’s face. Particularly emblematic was the sixth game of the second set, where Sinner found himself in the rare situation of having three consecutive break points, but Medvedev was able to produce a series of six consecutive first serves, which allowed him to dig himself out of the hole.

Conclusions: The big difference was made by Medvedev’s ability to elevate his quality on serve, a weapon that Sinner still does not possess at the same level. Or rather, Sinner’s serve works, but not yet at the level of the world tennis elite; and having the possibility to have a greater impact and close points more quickly in the long run can prove to be a determining factor, especially in Slam tournaments.

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Wrist Injury Threatening To End Holger Rune’s Olympic Dream

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5 days ago

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21/07/2024

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Holger Rune will have a second medical opinion on Monday before deciding if he is fit enough to play at the Olympic Games, according to his team. 

The Danish world No.17 recently retired from his quarter-final match at the Hamburg Open due to a knee injury. The hope at the time was that his withdrawal would be just a precautionary measure ahead of the Olympics. However, he is also dealing with a second issue that appears to be more serious.

According to TV 2 Sport, Rune has been struggling with a wrist issue and underwent a scan on Sunday which his mother Aneke says ‘doesn’t look promising.’ Aneke is also the manager of her son’s career. Rune’s Olympic dreams now rest on the outcome of a second medical expert that he will visit tomorrow who has a better understanding of the sport. 

“Unfortunately, it does not look promising after the first medical opinion after the review of the scan of the wrist,” Aneke Rune told TV 2 Sport.

“We are waiting for two tennis-specific doctors who will give a second opinion tomorrow (Monday). Tennis wrists look different from regular wrists, so we’ll hold out hope for one more day.” 

Rune is one of three Danish players entered into the Olympic tennis event along with Caroline Wozniacki and Clara Tauson. The country has only won one medal in tennis before which was at the 1912 Games when Sofie Castenschiold won silver in the women’s indoor singles event. 

So far this season, the 21-year-old has won 27 matches on the Tour but is yet to claim a title. He reached the final of the Brisbane International and then the semi-finals of three more events. In the Grand Slams, he made it to the fourth round of the French Open and Wimbledon. 

It is not known when a final decision regarding Rune’s participation in Paris will be made.

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Hubert Hurkacz Undergoes ‘Knee Procedure’ Ahead of Olympic Bid

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1 week ago

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17/07/2024

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Poland’s top player on the ATP Tour is not giving up on his dream of winning a medal at the Olympic Games despite recently undergoing a medical procedure.

World No.7 Hubert Hurkacz suffered a knee injury during his second round clash at Wimbledon against France’s Arthur Fils. In the fourth set tiebreak of their clash, Hurkacz dived for a shot but landed badly on his knee and required on-court medical attention. He then played two more points before retiring from the match. 

In a social media post published on Wednesday, the  27-year-old confirmed he underwent a procedure on his knee earlier this week but didn’t provide any further details.  Although Hurkacz has stated his intention to play at the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris, where the tennis event will be held on the clay at Roland Garros. 

“I had a knee procedure this Monday, but I’m feeling better already and my team and are dedicating extensive time each day to the rehab process.” He wrote on Instagram. 

“It’s a dream for every athlete to represent their country at the Olympics, and I want to make sure I am fully fit and ready before making the final decision to step on court. The aim is not only to participate, but to win a medal for my country.”

So far this season Hurkacz has won 34 out of 48 matches played on the Tour. He won the Estoril Open in April and was runner-up to Jannik Sinner in Halle. 

The Olympic tennis event is scheduled to begin a week Saturday on July 27th. Poland is yet to win a medal in the event but expectations are high with women’s No.1 Iga Swiatek also taking part. 

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Motivation, Pressure And Expectations – Novak Djokovic Targets History At Wimbledon

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2 weeks ago

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13/07/2024

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image via x.com/wimbledon

Novak Djokovic has broken numerous records throughout his career but he still feels the pressure of trying to make history in the sport. 

The world No.2 is through to his 10th Wimbledon final where he will play Carlos Alcaraz, who beat him at this stage of the tournament 12 months ago. There is plenty on the line for the Serbian who could equal Roger Federer’s record for most men’s titles won at SW19 and break the overall record for most major singles won in the sport if he triumphs over the Spaniard. Djokovic currently has 24 Grand Slam trophies to his name which is the same as Margaret Court, who won some of her titles before the Open Era started. 

“Obviously I’m aware that Roger [Federer] holds eight Wimbledons. I hold seven. History is on the line.” Djokovic said on Friday after beating Lorenzo Musetti.

“Also, the 25th potential Grand Slam. Of course, it serves as a great motivation, but at the same time it’s also a lot of pressure and expectations.”

Coming into Wimbledon, there had been doubts over Djokovic’s form after he underwent surgery to treat a knee injury he suffered at the French Open. However, he has defied the odds to reach the final. His run has also seen him beat Alexi Popyrin and Holger Rune before getting a walkover in the quarter-finals from Alex de Minaur, who sustained an injury during the tournament. Then on Friday, he overcame a spirited Musetti in three sets. 

Despite the challenge, Djokovic has insisted that his expectations to do well are always high no matter what the situation is. During what has been a roller-coaster first six months of the season, he is yet to win a title this year or beat a player currently ranked in the top 10. Although he will achieve both of these if her beats Alcaraz on Sunday. 

“Every time I step out on the court now, even though I’m 37 and competing with the 21-year-olds, I still expect myself to win most of the matches, and people expect me to win, whatever, 99% of the matches that I play.” He said.

“I always have to come out on the court and perform my best in order to still be at the level with Carlos [Alcaraz] or Jannik [Sinner] or Sascha [Zverev] or any of those guys, Daniil [Medvedev]. 

“This year hasn’t been that successful for me. It’s probably the weakest results the first six months I’ve had in many years. That’s okay. I had to adapt and accept that and really try to find also way out from the injury that I had and kind of regroup.”

Djokovic hopes that a Wimbledon win will help turn his season around like it has done in the past for him. 

“Wimbledon historically there’s been seasons where I wasn’t maybe playing at a desired level, but then I would win a Wimbledon title and then things would change.” He commented.

“For example, that was the case in 2018 when I had elbow surgery earlier in the year, dropped my rankings out of top 20, losing in fourth round of Australian Open, I think it was quarters of Roland-Garros, and just not playing the tennis that I want to play. Then I won Wimbledon and then won US Open and then later on became No.1 very soon.”

Meanwhile, 21-year-old Alcaraz is hoping to stop Djokovic in his tracks. Should he defend his title at Wimbledon, he would become the first player outside the Big Three to do so since Pete Sampras more than 20 years ago. He has won their only previous meeting on the grass but trails their head-to-head 3-2. 

“I’m sure he knows what he has to do to beat me,” said Alcaraz.

“But I’m ready to take that challenge and I’m ready to do it well.”

When the two players take to the court to play in the Wimbledon final, Djokovic will be 15 years and 348 days older than Alcaraz. Making it the largest age gap in a men’s Grand Slam final since the 1974 US Open. Whoever is victorious will receive £2,700,000 in prize money. 

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