ANALYSIS Of Jannik Sinner Vs Daniil Medvedev: There Is Still Something Missing In Sinner's Serve - UBITENNIS
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ANALYSIS Of Jannik Sinner Vs Daniil Medvedev: There Is Still Something Missing In Sinner’s Serve

Given his recent success in Montpellier, Ubitennis takes a close look at Jannik Sinner’s match against Dnaiil Medvedev in the final of the Rotterdam Open last Sunday. The Italian was defeated by Medvedev who shift his gear up and knocked Sinner down.

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Jannik Sinner (Roberto Dell'Olivo)

By Federico Bertelli

Sunday’s match was a sort of maturity test for the Italian player, who was beaten but showed that he is on the right track. The problem, however, is that overthrowing a top 5 player who plays at his best, is still a tall order.

General overview: once again, we take this opportunity to present our own elaboration of the main dimensions of analysis regarding service and return:

1st_in – percentage of first serves in

1st_won – percentage of points won on first serves

2nd_won – percentage of points won on second serves

Bp_saved – percentage of break points saved

Bp_converted – percentage of break points converted

1st_ret_won – percentage of points won on return of opponent’s first serve

2nd_ret_won – percentage of points won on return of opponent’s second serve

Pt_won – percentage of total points won

Ret_won – percentage of points won on return Srv_won – percentage of points won on serve

The advantage of this visualization is that it allows us to immediately see the dominance of one player over the other for the various dimensions of analysis. What we see first and foremost is how much of the difference was made by Medvedev’s ability to increase the percentage of first serves in after the first set. At this level, a gap of more than 12% in first serves in is a considerable handicap, so hats off to Medvedev for shifting a couple of gears in his game. It is interesting to note that Jannik was able to match Medvedev’s performance on second serves; in fact, this is an extremely comforting data point considering the quality of the Russian player’s rallies and the fact that the match often played out in extended rallies. Of course, this is a big improvement for Sinner compared to last Sunday’s match against Cressy.

Service directions: based on the charting provided at the end of the article, we have graphically represented the serving choices of the two players:

The graphs can be read as follows: the blue arrows represent the directions of serves from the even court side (with the players serving from right to left). The yellow arrows represent the directions of serves from the odd court side (with the players serving from left to right). The thickness of the arrow visually indicates how much a certain direction was chosen over the other. The values are expressed in percentage, with the service area divided into 6 zones:

Services on the deuce side
    Wide serves
    Body serves
    T Serves 
Services on the advantage side
    Wide serves
    Body serves
    T Serves 

With reference to the choices on the first serve, we have fairly similar predictions, except for the distribution of the wide serve on the even side. In this case, Medvedev had a greater intent in seeking the open angle.

On the second serve, Sinner’s choice was mainly to go for a kick serve with a central bounce, with the aim of giving Medvedev few angles to respond with. On his part, the Russian favoured a greater search for the outer angles in his second serve. In terms of the efficiency of their choices, we can see that Sinner could have favoured the first serve going wide on the even side more, while in general, he had difficulty taking Medvedev out of position on the advantage side. In this situation, the Russian was very good at handling Sinner’s outer serves and starting long exchanges. On the other hand, Medvedev was able to construct advantageous situations on his first serve, often using variations of serves to the centre and to the wide side.

Return performance: Both players were extremely conservative, as they rarely tried to enter aggressively on the opponent’s second serve. In particular, when Medvedev served a second serve, Sinner was aggressive on only 12% of occasions and he won the point in all those instances. The problem for the Italian was that Medvedev’s second serves with less pace were really few, so the window of opportunity was rather slim. However, as the match progressed and with the increasing pressure imposed by the Moscow native, a solution could have been to try going for outright winners with more aggressive returns. This could be a key to Jannik’s future development, the ability to attack his opponent’s second serve. On the other hand, Medvedev always positioned himself calmly at the back of the court, grinding out points and minimizing Sinner’s chances to hit winning serves.

The graphic of the Russian’s position in response, both on the first and second serve, is particularly telling in this regard:

Sinner, on the other hand, had a more proactive approach, both on the first and second serve, but unfortunately, as we have seen, it did not translate into a greater ability to take control of the point from the return.

Length of rallies: it’s worth noting how this was a particularly intense match for indoor standards; compared to a match like last week’s between Cressy and Sinner, in which the prevalence of short rallies was clear, Sunday saw a completely different context:

The distribution is quite clear: Sinner was able to keep up with Medvedev in extended rallies, which is not at all obvious against a player of such tactical and physical skills as Medvedev. However, the Russian was able to demonstrate greater efficiency on his first serve, which allowed him to slam the door in Sinner’s face. Particularly emblematic was the sixth game of the second set, where Sinner found himself in the rare situation of having three consecutive break points, but Medvedev was able to produce a series of six consecutive first serves, which allowed him to dig himself out of the hole.

Conclusions: The big difference was made by Medvedev’s ability to elevate his quality on serve, a weapon that Sinner still does not possess at the same level. Or rather, Sinner’s serve works, but not yet at the level of the world tennis elite; and having the possibility to have a greater impact and close points more quickly in the long run can prove to be a determining factor, especially in Slam tournaments.

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Alcaraz Halts Sinner’s Winning Streak To Reach The Final In Indian Wells

Carlos Alcaraz earns the right to defend his title at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells fending off Jannik Sinner’s assault to his ATP no. 2 spot

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Jannik Sinner (left) and Carlos Alcaraz (right) - Indian Wells 2024 (photo Twitter X @BNPPARIBASOPEN)

All good things come to an end. Jannik Sinner was on a 19-match winning streak since his loss to Novak Djokovic in the final of the Nitto ATP Finals that included his first Grand Slam win in Australia last January, and appeared as the most in-form player at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, the first Masters 1000 tournament of the season. But as he faced Carlos Alcaraz in an eagerly-awaited semifinal, he was unable to continue his quest for the third consecutive title of the season, succumbing to the Spaniard 1-6, 6-3, 6-2.

The match was a face-off for the no. 2 spot in the ATP ranking that Alcaraz will still occupy next Monday regardless of the result of Sunday’s final, and this is a much-needed confidence boost for him after a disappointing start of the season where he was handily beaten in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open by Zverev and did not win any tournament during the South American clay court swing where he was ousted by Nicolas Jarry in Buenos Aires and had to retire for an ankle injury at the Rio Open.

The match, originally scheduled for 1.30 pm Pacific Time, had to be suspended for over three hours after only three games because of an unusual downpour. As the match resumed, Sinner appeared once again the perfectly-tuned machine that had been crushing opponents with metronomic regularity for the past weeks while Alcaraz was struggling to keep up with his opponent’s pace from the baseline.

The first set was smooth sailing for the Italian who cruised to a comprehensive 6-1 in 27 minutes: Alcaraz was tentative from the baseline and could not find the right position to fire his screamers and change the tactical discourse of the match. “Then at the beginning of the second set, as I saw he was making a lot of mistakes, I tried to be as solid as possible when I should have kept pushing instead – Sinner said during his press conference – and that’s what cost me the match in the end”.

While serving at 1-2 in the second set, a few uncharacteristic forehand mistakes started to dot his thus far spotless game, and that cost him the break that sent Alcaraz flying to a 4-1 advantage. The Spaniard then found the confidence to change his return position and make Sinner work a lot more on his service games, as the Italian struggled to find a countermeasure to the tactical shift in the match: “I kept doing the same thing over and over again”, Sinner stressed, and forehand unforced errors started to pile up to reach the burdensome number of 27 at the end of the match.

Sinner had the chance to find his way back into the second set while Alcaraz was serving at 3-5, but Carlos cancelled his break point with a laser backhand down the line that had the 15,000-strong crowd cheering on their feet.

The third set ran away very quickly from the Italian, who started touching repeatedly the back of his left leg around his knee. Sinner got broken again during the third game, and while going for a last-ditch attempt to recover a short volley by Alcaraz he tumbled to the ground slightly injuring his right elbow and arm. From there onwards it was just more mistakes by Sinner and a clinical execution by Alcaraz on how to take home a match.

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“It Feels Great’ – Novak Djokovic Marks Indian Wells Return With Milestone Win

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Novak Djokovic - Indian Wells 2024 (foto Ubitennis)

Novak Djokovic says he still has a ‘great feeling’ in Indian Wells after playing his first match at the event for five years. 

The world No.1 battled to a 6-2, 5-7, 6-3, win over Aleksandar Vukic in what was his first taste of competitive tennis since losing in the semi-finals of the Australian Open. It was a far from smooth encounter for Djokovic, who hit 23 winners and won 83% of his first service points. In the second set, he was broken twice with the second of those occurring when he was serving at 5-6. Nevertheless, he battled back in the decider to win. 

This year is the first time Djokovic has been able to play in the Masters 1000 event since 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After the 2020 tournament was cancelled, he was unable to play the next three editions due to restrictions placed on unvaccinated foreign visitors to America. Despite the absence, the five-time champion states that his love for the event is as strong as ever.

“It feels great to come back with the win. It’s been five years and the great feeling is still there. I enjoyed myself very much. Beautiful stadium. Great atmosphere.” Djokovic said during his press conference. 
“I was a bit nervous at the beginning. I haven’t played a match in more than five weeks. I thought the start was good. Then I think he upped his game.
“I probably lost a little bit of the momentum. We got into the third set, I thought the level of the tennis was pretty good in the third. Great points. He made me produce some really important points in games in order to prevail in this match. I’m glad that I was pushed, as well, which is important.”

Djokovic’s latest victory is his 400th in a Masters 1000 tournament. He is only the second player in history to have reached this milestone since the tournament category was introduced in 1990. The first to do so was Rafael Nadal who currently has 406 wins to his name. 

He could create more history in Indian Wells should the Serbian go on to claim the title this year. If he does, he would become the first man to have won it for a sixth time. Although Djokovic is refusing to get too far ahead of himself. 

“I would love to,” he said of trying to claim a sixth title. “Obviously there is still a long way to get to the title match, but it’s a good start.’
“I know I can always produce better tennis. Obviously very self-critical, and I think some extent it’s also important because then it puts you in the right mindset of wanting to work more and being engaged in the process of improving on a daily basis, or trying to perfect your game and right the wrongs that you’ve done in a previous match or previous practice session.
“So that’s what I’m going to keep doing and hopefully building my game as this tournament is played over 10 to 14 days, so it allows you to have the practice days also between matches, which then allows you to work on certain specifics in the game.”

Djokovic will play Italy’s Luca Nardi in the next round. 

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Carlos Alcaraz Brushes Aside Injury Doubts To Reach Indian Wells Third Round

Carlos Alcaraz is into the third round at Indian Wells after a three set win over Matteo Arnaldi.

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(@BNPPARIBASOPEN - Twitter)

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz overcame injury doubts to edge past Matteo Arnaldi 6-7(5) 6-0 6-1 at Indian Wells.

The world number two had to endure an aggressive opening set from the in-form Italian to reach the third round.

After a tight opening set, Alcaraz raced through the last two sets as he set up a third round showdown with Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The Spaniard had entered this match with injury doubts after retiring from his match with Thiago Monteiro in Rio De Janeiro.

However Alcaraz was very pleased with how his ankle held up as he moved on in California, “Honestly it surprised me. I felt great, moving normally without thinking about it,” Alcaraz told the ATP website.

“It was a really good match to realise that I am better than I thought. I think I played great tennis because of that. I had to change just a few things. I made a few mistakes in the first set… I had to put in more first serves in the second and third set, and I think that was a big key to improving my level a little bit, to be in the rallies — long rallies as well, to get the rhythm, and I’m really happy to get it at the end.

“But right now I’m getting better and feeling really, really well. But I think I have to get a good rhythm step by step. I think that’s the big difference between last year and this one. This [is a] really special tournament for me. I want to do it well. This is the first match playing high intensity and I didn’t know how it’s going respond, the ankle.

“I have to deal with it, but I didn’t deal with the nerves very well in the first set, moving differently, hitting the ball differently. My game is playing aggressive all the time. And try to stay calm and wait for my chances.

“When you get nervous, you don’t think about it. You don’t hit the ball as good as you want. You don’t move as good as you want. I think that’s the big difference.”

Alcaraz will hope for a good week this week as he defends the Indian Wells title as he aims to win a first title since Wimbledon this week.

Next for the Spaniard will be Felix Auger-Aliassime, who defeated Constant Lestienne in straight sets.

Auger-Aliassime currently leads the head-to-head 3-1 but Alcaraz won their last meeting in Indian Wells last year.

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