Seventeen years ago, the exhilarating Rafael Nadal surged into the final of the Miami Masters 1000 tournament, and the Spaniard nearly took home the title. He moved ahead of Roger Federer by two sets to love and 4-1 in the third set before the Swiss managed to engineer a magnificent comeback to prevail in five sets and seal the crown. Nadal was still 18 then but, despite his anguishing setback against Federer, it was apparent that the dynamic southpaw was headed inexorably toward the forefront of the sport. Nadal won no fewer than eleven tournaments across that sterling season including his first major at Roland Garros. He finished the year at No. 2 in the world. This inexhaustible competitor has never looked back, claiming a record 21 majors altogether, reaffirming his greatness time and again when it has counted the most.
The feeling grows that another 18-year-old Spaniard with a strikingly similar penchant for producing his best when the stakes are highest has demonstrably shown that he, too, belongs among the elite. Carlos Alcaraz established himself as the youngest ever to win the Miami Open when he defeated the Norwegian Casper Ruud 7-5, 6-4 in the final. Alcaraz, the No. 14 seed, is the third youngest ever to collect a Masters 1000 crown. Michael Chang was the youngest when he came through to win Toronto in 1990 at 18, and Nadal was the second youngest when he took the Monte Carlo title at 18 in 2005. It is no accident that Alcaraz has stamped his authority at such a young age, and only a matter of time before he captures one of the four major events. The feeling grows that Alcaraz will succeed at a Grand Slam tournament later this season, perhaps in late summer in New York at the U.S. Open.
No one in the world of men’s tennis has played at this level of the game since Nadal in 2005. To be sure, Nadal exploded in the months after Miami that season and permanently altered the tennis landscape. The way I look at it, Alcaraz is poised to alter his profession similarly across the rest of 2022 and through the remainder of his career. Can he win eleven tournaments this year the way Nadal did in 2005? I doubt that. But he has secured two titles already this season, and undoubtedly will claim at least four or five more the rest of the way. In my view, he will inevitably end 2022 among the top five in the world. In a best case scenario, he might even make a bid for the year-end No 1 spot.
Nadal in 2005 was already a supreme match player, almost always able to raise his level and display his best tennis in the tight corners of the biggest contests, seldom performing like anything less than a wily veteran despite his inexperience. Alcaraz’s exuberance, optimism and intensity is highly reminiscent of Nadal, but his game is decidedly more advanced and diversified than Rafa’s was at the same age.
As the late Ted Tinling—a Hall of Famer and erudite tennis observer—once said, “Comparisons are odious.” Tinling had a point because all tennis champions develop differently and confront challenges that are unique to their own circumstances. Nadal was even more mature at 18 and his shot selection was perhaps more sophisticated and precise, but Alcaraz is surely a more complete player as a teenager. He has essentially the entire package already with his explosive ground game off both wings, his remarkable variety on serve, and his exquisite touch and timely use of the drop shot. His court coverage is almost unparalleled and enables him to steadfastly defend. He forces opponents to press because they are ever conscious of his alacrity around the court. And his willingness to come forward not only off mid-court balls, but also to serve-and-volley selectively, is remarkable. He employs that latter tactic most impressively in the ad court with the kick serve wide to the backhand opening up the court for routine first volleys, or sometimes provoking errant returns.
Against the No. 6 seed Ruud, Alcaraz replicated a pattern he had put into practice all week long in Miami, battling back fiercely, figuring out the right recipe to get the job done, refusing to panic when he was behind. Ruud owns one of the game’s heaviest and finest forehands, and his first serve is underrated. The 23-year-old Norwegian came out of the blocks purposefully and confidently in the final, taking 12 of 18 points in building a 3-0 lead, reaching 4-1 after saving a break point in the fifth game. Alcaraz had been apprehensive in the early stages, dropping his serve in the second game with four unforced errors off the forehand.
But there are few players as perspicacious as Alcaraz in today’s world of tennis, and he made the necessary adjustments, imposing himself much more off the forehand. With Ruud serving at 4-2, the Norwegian missed five of six first serves and Alcaraz refused to allow his adversary to get away with it. He broke back and then surged to 4-4. After Ruud took the ninth game, Alcaraz was stellar under pressure. Serving at 4-5, 30-30, two points from conceding the set, he came forward and coaxed a backhand pass narrowly long from Ruud, and then released an ace at 124 MPH down the T.
Back to 5-5 was an unwavering Alacaraz. He broke once more for 6-5, and soared to 40-15 in the twelfth game before losing three points in a row. Ruud was at break point, but Alcaraz again met a propitious moment forthrightly. He went to the serve-and-volley tactic and Ruud missed the return. After a forehand volley winner gave him a third set point, Alcaraz played serve-volley again, this time putting away an overhead off a hanging backhand return. Set to Alcaraz, 7-5.
He then opened up a commanding 3-0 second set lead with two service breaks in hand. Ruud closed the gap to 3-2 but Alcaraz was unrelenting. He held three more times at the cost of only two points to close out the account 7-5, 6-4. Serving for the match Alcaraz, was letter perfect, holding at love, finishing it off impeccably and unhesitatingly.
The way he recouped in the final was indicative of the entire week for the beguiling Spaniard. His first two matches were relatively straightforward. Alcaraz opened with a 6-3, 6-2 win over the Hungarian Marton Fucsovics. Next he accounted for the 2014 U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic 6-4, 6-4.
But then the hard work commenced for the teenager. One of the most absorbing matches of 2021 was Alcaraz’s five set triumph over Stefanos Tsitsipas at the U.S. Open. That was when he announced his authenticity as a top flight player.
They had not met since, but in Miami Tsitsipas was timing the ball sweetly and serving skillfully on his way to a 5-2 first set lead in the round of 16. But Alcaraz swept seven games in a row and 30 of 38 points in that stretch, eventually recording a 7-5, 6-3 victory. Alcaraz had the Greek stylist thoroughly befuddled with his shotmaking wizardry.
Facing the strikingly improved Serbian Miomir Kecmanovic in the quarterfinals, Alcaraz was pushed to the hilt by the world No. 48. Kecmanovic was, as they say in the trade, “rock solid.” He was going toe to toe with the Spaniard from the backcourt and there was little to choose between them. In the third set of this spirited clash, Alcaraz found himself in a precarious position at 4-5, 15-30. His response was extraordinary. Alcaraz drove a flat backhand down the line for a winner, made an astounding forehand half-volley drop shot winner, and then came in behind his serve to implement a drop volley winner.
Alcaraz’s brave stand there brought him back to 5-5 in the final set, but he was on the brink of defeat again in the tie-break, trailing 5-3. Yet the Spaniard produced another stunning forehand half-volley winner, a penetrating backhand down the line which coaxed an error from Kecmanovic, a service winner to the forehand and a spectacular backhand pass up the line. Those four consecutive points lifted Alcaraz to a hard fought 6-7 (5), 6-3, 7-6 (5) win. Five times he had been within two points of defeat, but Alcaraz was the better man when it counted.
Now facing the defending champion Hubert Hurkacz in the penultimate round, Alcaraz was in a bind again. He trailed 5-3 in the first set tie-break against the 6’5” Polish player, but took four points in a row to turn that critical set around. He won another tie-break in the second set more easily, fashioning a 7-6 (5), 7-6 (2) triumph in a match with no service breaks to take his place in the final. And then, of course, he struck back boldly from that 1-4 deficit in the final, winning nine of the next ten games on his way to a career defining victory.
The men’s game is clearly being reshaped by the captivating Alcaraz, now stationed at No. 11 in the ATP Rankings. Timing is everything in life. Keep in mind that Daniil Medvedev lost to Hurkacz in the quarterfinals of Miami and then announced he is having a hernia operation which will keep him out of the game for a month or two. After rising briefly to No. 1 in the world, he has been sidetracked. Moreover, losing the Australian Open final to Nadal after leading by two sets to love and 3-2, 0-40 in the third was a devastatingly potent blow to the Russian which surely set him back psychologically.
Sascha Zverev was magnificent across the second half of 2021 and won the Nitto ATP Finals at the end of the season. But he has struggled mightily this season and was ill when he lost to Ruud in a three set quarterfinal at Miami. He is not heading into the clay court season with much self conviction.
Nadal, of course, was blazing through 2022, winning his first three tournaments of the season and reaching the final at Indian Wells. A fractured rib slowed him down and interfered with his clay court preparation. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic has played only one tournament this year. He plans on competing in Monte Carlo and Serbia prior to the French Open but the world No. 1 is in dire need of match play.
And so the stage is set for Alcaraz to make his presence known prodigiously in the weeks and months ahead. He fought Nadal down to the wire before losing on a brutally windy day in the semifinals at Indian Wells, but did not look unduly intimidated by his illustrious countryman.
It must be said that Alcaraz will now look at himself in a new light, knowing he is a target. Many players will be intimidated by his sureness overall and his uncanny play under pressure in particular. They will be beaten in many ways before they even step on the court with Alcaraz. But others will look at his exalted status and see an opportunity, competing against him as if they have nothing to lose. It will be crucial for the Spaniard to maintain his admirable reverence for all of the players he confronts, not just the bigger names with the larger reputations.
Somehow, I believe he will handle his changing competitive environment with clarity and maturity. He reminds me temperamentally of Nadal. Alcaraz will not allow himself to get carried away with success. He will relish the chance to keep moving forward, to navigate his way successfully through new territory, to prove to himself that he has the talent and the temperament to become one of the great players of his era and perhaps one of the best of all time.
The hope here is that we will witness some stirring battles between Alcaraz and Nadal as well as some spectacular skirmishes between Alcaraz and Djokovic. The Serbian has never played against the Spaniard. Over the next few years, those matches could be the kind that families discuss animatedly over dinner tables, that fans relish, that all of us celebrate. But in the long run, Alcaraz will be testing his mettle against players we hardly know about at the moment. With his versatile game and dazzling talent, his immense drive and determination, and his unmistakable belief in himself, Carlos Alcaraz will be inspiring audiences all over the world for the next 15 years.
Forgive me for speculating, but when all is said and done, I believe Alcaraz will secure at least 12 to 15 majors across his career, and perhaps a few more. This extraordinary individual is only just beginning to explore his full potential.
