A year after this event was delayed by four months due to the pandemic, main draw play gets underway on Sunday after only a one-week delay this year.
On the men’s side, can anyone stop Rafael Nadal from winning an astonishing 14th French Open title? Novak Djokovic is one of only two other men in the draw who has won this event, but he hasn’t defeated Nadal on clay in over five years. The other is Roger Federer, who is just 1-2 since missing over a year of action due to knee surgeries. Dominic Thiem has reached the final in two of the last three years, but he’s an extremely modest 4-3 on clay this season. So if anyone is going to dethrone the King of Clay, the most likely candidates may come from the ATP Next Gen. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Sascha Zverev, and Andrey Rublev are the three men who have defeated Nadal in 2021.
The women’s singles draw is much wider open, though there are definitely some favorites. 2019 champion and world No.1 Ash Barty chose not to travel to Paris to defend her title last fall, but she’s here this year, and arrives in great form. Also in great form is defending champion Iga Swiatek, who is coming off the most one-sided championship victory in recent memory: a 6-0, 6-0 demolition of Karolina Pliskova two weeks ago in Rome. However, no one has won more WTA matches since the last French Open than Aryna Sabalenka, who is the third seed in the absence of an injured Simona Halep. The draw also features four other Roland Garros singles champions, including Serena Williams, who is still looking to achieve her 24th Major milestone.
Sunday’s schedule is highlighted by several fascinating women’s matchups. A pair of two-time Major singles champions collide in the opening round, while Sabalenka faces a tough opening draw in a rejuvenated Ana Konjuh. And four-time Major champ Naomi Osaka is on a 14-match winning streak at Slams, as she now focuses on converting her hard court success to the clay.
Naomi Osaka (2) vs. Patricia Maria Tig – First on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Osaka has won four of the last six hard court Majors, but she’s yet to even reach the second week at a Major played on clay or grass. This is her first Grand Slam event outside of a hart court in two full years, as she did not play at last autumn’s Roland Garros. There’s been much talk about her lack of success on this surface, and that was amplified by her 1-2 record on clay this season. There’s also been much talk about her refusal to talk to the media at this event, and I wonder if that situation will serve as a distraction or as motivation for Naomi. Regardless, she’s certainly a favorite against Tig, a 26-year-old Romanian who is 3-7 lifetime at Majors. And Osaka claimed their only previous meeting six years ago in Hua Hin, back when Naomi was ranked outside the top 200.
Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Pablo Andujar – Second on Court Philippe-Chatrier
While Thiem has advanced to the quarterfinals or better the last five years in Paris, he arrives this year a bit undercooked. Uncharacteristically, Dominic took a break from the tour for nearly two months this season. He only played two clay court events, though he did reach the semifinals in Madrid despite his lack of match play. His opponent on Sunday is a clay court specialist. 35-year-old Andujar has reached nine tour finals on this surface, and none on any other. And Pablo is coming off a semifinal run in Geneva, where he defeated Roger Federer in three sets. However, the Spaniard has not won a match at Roland Garros since 2015, and has never won a set against Thiem in three meetings on clay. This should be a comfortable victory for the reigning US Open champion.
Victoria Azarenka (15) vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova – Third on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Neither of these multi-time Slam champs has played much of late. Multiple injuries have kept Azarenka off court for much of 2021, competing in only one match since March. And Kuznetsova hasn’t played at all since March, though that month, she proved she’s still capable of beating top players. In Dubai, she took out Elina Svitolina in three. Azarenka leads their head-to-head 6-4, and has prevailed in their last five matches without dropping a set. Kuznetsova hasn’t defeated Vika since way back in May of 2009. However, Sveta’s last two wins in this rivalry both came on clay. And Azarenka is just 4-5 in her last five appearances here. So this is a dangerous draw for Vika, especially if she remains less than 100%.
Aryna Sabalenka (3) vs. Ana Konjuh (Q) – Third on Court Suzanne-Lenglen
Speaking of dangerous draws, this is precisely that for Sabalenka. Konjuh was a breakout star at the 2016 US Open, making the quarterfinals as an 18-year-old. However, Ana’s career was soon disrupted by four surgeries. The WTA has a great piece on her journey here. Now that she’s healthy again, she’s quickly returned to good form. As a wild card in Miami, Konjuh defeated both Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek. And just recently in Belgrade, she came through qualifying and raced all the way to the final. In qualifying for this event, she did not drop a set. So while Sabalenka remains a favorite, this is a tough first-round, first-ever matchup. And as impressive as Aryna has been on tour, she’s failed to advance farther than the round of 16 at any Major, so she’ll certainly feel pressure to change that narrative.
Veronika Kudermetova (29) vs. Amanda Anisimova – Fourth on Court 9
Anisimova was a surprise semifinalist in Paris two years ago, and earned two dominant victories here a year ago before getting walloped by Simona Halep. The 19-year-old American is a modest 4-4 on clay this season, but her last three losses all came against top 30 players. Kudermetova has been in great form this year, already accumulating 24 match wins. And she recently debuted inside the top 30 after earning the WTA 500 title on the green clay of Charleston. In a first-time matchup between two players with similarly-aggressive playing styles, I give the slight edge to the Russian No.1 based on her winning ways.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Jeremy Chardy – Other than Nadal, no man has been better on clay this season than Tsitsipas, who is 16-3 with two titles. He’s 2-1 at tour level against Chardy, a 34-year-old Frenchman who lost in the first round of this event the last two years.
Sascha Zverev (6) vs. Oscar Otte (Q) – 27-year-old Otte is a fellow German ranked outside the top 150, and only owns one career win at a Major. Zverev was the champion in Madrid earlier this month, and is a two-time French Open quarterfinalist.
Kei Nishikori vs. Alessandro Giannessi (Q) – While Kei is just 4-3 on clay this year, his losses were only against top players: Nadal and Zverev. Sunday is Giannessi’s 31st birthday, as well as his Roland Garros main draw debut.
Sunday’s full schedule is here.
