Three American women and two Italian men will play on Rod Laver Arena and vie for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Two of those American women are unseeded, and will look to upset top five players. The other was a semifinalist at the last hard court Major, and may be a favorite to repeat that result this week. The men from Italy will also face top five seeds, in a 20-time Major champion and a 22-year-old from Greece. And two Russian men are just one round away from a highly-anticipated quarterfinal clash.
Each day during this fortnight, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Monday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Jessica Pegula – 11:00am on RLA
Both women are yet to lose a set, despite facing some stiff competition: Svitolina in Coco Gauff, and Pegula in Victoria Azarenka. And both women have improved as the tournament has progressed. Svitolina allowed Yulia Putintseva only four games in the last round, and Pegula dropped just four games across her last four sets. Their only previous match was just last month in Abu Dhabi, with Svitolina winning in straight sets. The 26-year-old American has an aggressive ground game, and has practically broken opponents at will. Through three rounds, Pegula has earned 16 breaks of serve. This is new territory for Jessica, who is making her debut in the second week of a Major. Svitolina’s second serve points won was below 50% in her first two rounds, so it will be crucial to keep that closer to the 71% she achieved in the third round. Based on their recent encounter, and Svitolina’s advantages in the movement and experience departments, Elina should be able to reach her third quarterfinal in Melbourne.
Jennifer Brady (22) vs. Donna Vekic (28) – Second on RLA
25-year-old Brady has become one of the WTA’s most impressive performers since the tour restart last summer. She won her first WTA title in Lexington, then achieved her first Slam semifinal, pushing eventual champion Naomi Osaka to the limit in an excellent match. And Brady dominated during the first week here, with no opponent winning more than three games in a set. Jen has a great serve and a formidable forehand, resulting in only one break of her serve thus far, and a total of 66 winners. Vekic survived a grueling match with Kaia Kanepi two days ago, saving match points in an emotional comeback victory. This is Donna’s fourth time in the round of 16 at a Major, but this appearance is quite a surprise, as she came into this event on a six-match losing streak. Brady will be the one who can better dictate play, and should be able to control whether her destiny includes a spot in Wednesday’s quarterfinals.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Fabio Fognini (16) – Not Before 3:00pm on RLA
Nadal leads their head-to-head 12-4, with a 6-1 edge on hard courts. But Fognini’s only win on this surface was significant. It came at the 2015 US Open, when Fabio became the only man to defeat Rafa from two sets down at a Major. In those last three sets, the Italian simply redlined and hit the 20-time Slam champ right off the court. In his recent autobiography, “Warning: My Life Among the Lines,” Fognini described Nadal as “A volcano energy explosion, guided by discipline and method.” So Fabio has the utmost respect for Rafa, but with four previous victories, he also believes he can beat him. Nadal came into this tournament with lower back issues, though he’s seem rather unbothered. Rafa has not dropped a set, and has gone back to his normal service motion as his back has improved. And Nadal is 12-0 in his last twelve fourth round matches at this event. I like Rafa’s chances to make that a baker’s dozen on Monday.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Shelby Rogers – Not Before 7:00pm on RLA
These two just played 11 days ago at this same venue, with Barty prevailing in a 10-point tiebreak after they split the first two sets. There’s been some concern regarding the wrapping on Ash’s hamstring, and she pulled out of the doubles event last week. But the world No.1 appeared unhampered two days ago in a solid win over Ekaterina Alexandrova. Like the other American women in action today, Rogers is currently playing the best tennis of her career. She’s coming off a quarterfinal run at the last hard court Major, when she upset Petra Kvitova in a third set tiebreak. The 28-year-old also defeated Serena Williams last summer in Lexington, and is yet to drop a set this fortnight. Thus far, Rogers has won an impressive 80% of first serve points. If Shelby can maintain that level against Ash, she’s fully capable of upsetting Barty, especially with the Australian at less than 100%.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Matteo Berrettini (9) – Last on RLA
The big question in this matchup is how Berrettini will feel after enduring pain in his rib area during the third set against Karen Khachanov two days ago. The 24-year-old Italian was able to overcome the injury and defeat the Russian in three consecutive tiebreaks. Tsitsipas overcame a stern five-set test from Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round, but otherwise has only dropped nine games in six sets played. Both players have been in strong form since the start of the ATP Cup two weeks ago. They played in the first round of this event two years ago, with Tsitsipas winning in four tight sets. They also met in the second round of qualifying at the 2017 US Open, with Stefanos advancing in a deciding set tiebreak. If Berrettini is healthy, this should be another good battle today. Though based on their past, and considering Matteo’s injury, Tsitsipas must be favored.
Other Notable Matches on Day 8:
ATP Finals champion Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Mackenzie McDonald, a 25-year-old American who also reached the fourth round at Wimbledon three years ago. Medvedev has won his last 17 matches, though he required five sets to finish off Filip Krajinovic on Saturday.
Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Casper Ruud (24). Both men had excellent 2020 seasons: Rublev with 41 wins and five titles, and Rudd with 22 wins and one title. Andrey is 2-0 against Casper, with both matches taking place within the last two years on clay.
In what should be a highly-entertaining affair, Elise Mertens (18) vs. Karolina Muchova (25). Mertens claimed their only previous meeting in straight sets, four months ago on this same surface. Neither woman has dropped a set through three rounds.
Monday’s full order of play is here.