The Greatest Tennis Players On Clay In The Open Era: An Analysis - UBITENNIS
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The Greatest Tennis Players On Clay In The Open Era: An Analysis

UbiTennis investigated the results of over 200 tournaments to ascertain who have been the most successful on the dirt in men’s tennis since 1968.

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NOTE: This study was conducted before the 2020 French Open. For those who might be interested in checking out the original dataset, click on the link below: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TLJp3EYsRn5KE2FZKRv_rNA0K6ACOtmmC_XI8tan08o/edit#gid=0

The beginning of the clay season is generally perceived as a rebirth for European fans, partly because the elite of world tennis comes back to the Old Continent at the end of the Oceanic and North American trips, partly because the matches start to take place again at times that do not compromise circadian rhythms and private lives, partly due to the ancient association with blooms of the Romance spring, a double-edged sword in the context of the Roman May, especially for those allergic to poplars. The latter aspect has had no reason to exist in 2020, since the clay was re-invented in an unprecedented late-summer or early-autumn outfit, but in some ways the theme of renewal has never been more relevant, for reasons we all know. Given the caesura that the pandemic represented for tennis and beyond, our editorial team decided to sum up 53 Open Era tennis seasons on the surface, trying to find objective measures to see who they were the most dominant in this specialty.

The analysis focuses on the concept, which has risen to great popularity in recent years among Big Three fans, of “big titles”, that is Slams and Masters 1000 or whatever their name was since the creation of the Grand Prix (which took place in 1970) – since then, they have been called Grand Prix Super Series (until 1989, also including events of the WCT circuit), and then Championship Series, Super 9 and Masters Series, before being bestowed their current denomination in 2009. In the case of the clay, therefore, we will talk about Roland Garros (since 1968), Monte Carlo (since 1970), Hamburg/Madrid (this one since 1978), Rome (since 1970), and more, as will be explained.

To analyse the performance of the players in the aforementioned tournaments, two data types were chosen from the original dataset that would give a complete overview or at least allow them to be studied from several points of view. The first is the total score obtained in the above tournaments, with a very simple scoring system: 2 points for a Grand Slam victory, 1 for a final, 0.5 for a semi-final, 0.25 for a quarter final, 1 point for a win in a 1000 or Masters Series or Super 9 if you prefer, 0.5 for a final, and 0.25 for a semi-final. These data are the most relevant, because they permit to identify the best performers over the long term, that is, in short, who has actually won the most. 

The contrast for such a clear-cut figure is provided, obviously, by the average achieved by the players in the tournaments in which they reached the final stages (the defeats in the first rounds are therefore not part of the study, because the point of the article is to define the winning spirit of the various athletes). This is a more ambiguous but useful parameter when interpreted correctly and in synergy with the other, because a high average allows us to understand which players were able to win more often when it counted, i.e. when they reached the final stages of a tournament. The two variables were then graphed in a Cartesian plane by putting in abscissa the average points per event and in ordinate the total points obtained.

A brief digression: big data (or advanced statistics, or sabermetrics, or moneyball) are revolutionizing all sports, whether we like it or not, providing means to overcome the preconceptions related to a single sport, in particular from a tactical point of view. and they are infinitely more complex than the study reported here. Figures related to the length of the exchanges, the spin or the direction of the serve, and shot placement, help us understand the game as it happens, in some ways assisting the identification (within the limit of our knowledge of the psycho-physical conditions of the players, decidedly less predictable), whereas a ‘dry analysis of the performance’ such as this one (which exclusively examines the final results and their continuity) is completely a posteriori, and therefore has a purely historical value, it photographs and legitimises the existence of a previous state almost like the Domesday Book, straight out of Norman lore.

This article can at best be called a social media debate’s debate, that is, a social media debate in which the contenders bring concrete and unbiased data to support their arguments (perhaps even politely) – John Lennon would tell us that it is easy to imagine (if we try), however improbable it may seem. Out with deference and caveats, we can move on to analysis.

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Alcaraz Halts Sinner’s Winning Streak To Reach The Final In Indian Wells

Carlos Alcaraz earns the right to defend his title at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells fending off Jannik Sinner’s assault to his ATP no. 2 spot

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Jannik Sinner (left) and Carlos Alcaraz (right) - Indian Wells 2024 (photo Twitter X @BNPPARIBASOPEN)

All good things come to an end. Jannik Sinner was on a 19-match winning streak since his loss to Novak Djokovic in the final of the Nitto ATP Finals that included his first Grand Slam win in Australia last January, and appeared as the most in-form player at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, the first Masters 1000 tournament of the season. But as he faced Carlos Alcaraz in an eagerly-awaited semifinal, he was unable to continue his quest for the third consecutive title of the season, succumbing to the Spaniard 1-6, 6-3, 6-2.

The match was a face-off for the no. 2 spot in the ATP ranking that Alcaraz will still occupy next Monday regardless of the result of Sunday’s final, and this is a much-needed confidence boost for him after a disappointing start of the season where he was handily beaten in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open by Zverev and did not win any tournament during the South American clay court swing where he was ousted by Nicolas Jarry in Buenos Aires and had to retire for an ankle injury at the Rio Open.

The match, originally scheduled for 1.30 pm Pacific Time, had to be suspended for over three hours after only three games because of an unusual downpour. As the match resumed, Sinner appeared once again the perfectly-tuned machine that had been crushing opponents with metronomic regularity for the past weeks while Alcaraz was struggling to keep up with his opponent’s pace from the baseline.

The first set was smooth sailing for the Italian who cruised to a comprehensive 6-1 in 27 minutes: Alcaraz was tentative from the baseline and could not find the right position to fire his screamers and change the tactical discourse of the match. “Then at the beginning of the second set, as I saw he was making a lot of mistakes, I tried to be as solid as possible when I should have kept pushing instead – Sinner said during his press conference – and that’s what cost me the match in the end”.

While serving at 1-2 in the second set, a few uncharacteristic forehand mistakes started to dot his thus far spotless game, and that cost him the break that sent Alcaraz flying to a 4-1 advantage. The Spaniard then found the confidence to change his return position and make Sinner work a lot more on his service games, as the Italian struggled to find a countermeasure to the tactical shift in the match: “I kept doing the same thing over and over again”, Sinner stressed, and forehand unforced errors started to pile up to reach the burdensome number of 27 at the end of the match.

Sinner had the chance to find his way back into the second set while Alcaraz was serving at 3-5, but Carlos cancelled his break point with a laser backhand down the line that had the 15,000-strong crowd cheering on their feet.

The third set ran away very quickly from the Italian, who started touching repeatedly the back of his left leg around his knee. Sinner got broken again during the third game, and while going for a last-ditch attempt to recover a short volley by Alcaraz he tumbled to the ground slightly injuring his right elbow and arm. From there onwards it was just more mistakes by Sinner and a clinical execution by Alcaraz on how to take home a match.

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“It Feels Great’ – Novak Djokovic Marks Indian Wells Return With Milestone Win

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Novak Djokovic - Indian Wells 2024 (foto Ubitennis)

Novak Djokovic says he still has a ‘great feeling’ in Indian Wells after playing his first match at the event for five years. 

The world No.1 battled to a 6-2, 5-7, 6-3, win over Aleksandar Vukic in what was his first taste of competitive tennis since losing in the semi-finals of the Australian Open. It was a far from smooth encounter for Djokovic, who hit 23 winners and won 83% of his first service points. In the second set, he was broken twice with the second of those occurring when he was serving at 5-6. Nevertheless, he battled back in the decider to win. 

This year is the first time Djokovic has been able to play in the Masters 1000 event since 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After the 2020 tournament was cancelled, he was unable to play the next three editions due to restrictions placed on unvaccinated foreign visitors to America. Despite the absence, the five-time champion states that his love for the event is as strong as ever.

“It feels great to come back with the win. It’s been five years and the great feeling is still there. I enjoyed myself very much. Beautiful stadium. Great atmosphere.” Djokovic said during his press conference. 
“I was a bit nervous at the beginning. I haven’t played a match in more than five weeks. I thought the start was good. Then I think he upped his game.
“I probably lost a little bit of the momentum. We got into the third set, I thought the level of the tennis was pretty good in the third. Great points. He made me produce some really important points in games in order to prevail in this match. I’m glad that I was pushed, as well, which is important.”

Djokovic’s latest victory is his 400th in a Masters 1000 tournament. He is only the second player in history to have reached this milestone since the tournament category was introduced in 1990. The first to do so was Rafael Nadal who currently has 406 wins to his name. 

He could create more history in Indian Wells should the Serbian go on to claim the title this year. If he does, he would become the first man to have won it for a sixth time. Although Djokovic is refusing to get too far ahead of himself. 

“I would love to,” he said of trying to claim a sixth title. “Obviously there is still a long way to get to the title match, but it’s a good start.’
“I know I can always produce better tennis. Obviously very self-critical, and I think some extent it’s also important because then it puts you in the right mindset of wanting to work more and being engaged in the process of improving on a daily basis, or trying to perfect your game and right the wrongs that you’ve done in a previous match or previous practice session.
“So that’s what I’m going to keep doing and hopefully building my game as this tournament is played over 10 to 14 days, so it allows you to have the practice days also between matches, which then allows you to work on certain specifics in the game.”

Djokovic will play Italy’s Luca Nardi in the next round. 

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Carlos Alcaraz Brushes Aside Injury Doubts To Reach Indian Wells Third Round

Carlos Alcaraz is into the third round at Indian Wells after a three set win over Matteo Arnaldi.

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(@BNPPARIBASOPEN - Twitter)

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz overcame injury doubts to edge past Matteo Arnaldi 6-7(5) 6-0 6-1 at Indian Wells.

The world number two had to endure an aggressive opening set from the in-form Italian to reach the third round.

After a tight opening set, Alcaraz raced through the last two sets as he set up a third round showdown with Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The Spaniard had entered this match with injury doubts after retiring from his match with Thiago Monteiro in Rio De Janeiro.

However Alcaraz was very pleased with how his ankle held up as he moved on in California, “Honestly it surprised me. I felt great, moving normally without thinking about it,” Alcaraz told the ATP website.

“It was a really good match to realise that I am better than I thought. I think I played great tennis because of that. I had to change just a few things. I made a few mistakes in the first set… I had to put in more first serves in the second and third set, and I think that was a big key to improving my level a little bit, to be in the rallies — long rallies as well, to get the rhythm, and I’m really happy to get it at the end.

“But right now I’m getting better and feeling really, really well. But I think I have to get a good rhythm step by step. I think that’s the big difference between last year and this one. This [is a] really special tournament for me. I want to do it well. This is the first match playing high intensity and I didn’t know how it’s going respond, the ankle.

“I have to deal with it, but I didn’t deal with the nerves very well in the first set, moving differently, hitting the ball differently. My game is playing aggressive all the time. And try to stay calm and wait for my chances.

“When you get nervous, you don’t think about it. You don’t hit the ball as good as you want. You don’t move as good as you want. I think that’s the big difference.”

Alcaraz will hope for a good week this week as he defends the Indian Wells title as he aims to win a first title since Wimbledon this week.

Next for the Spaniard will be Felix Auger-Aliassime, who defeated Constant Lestienne in straight sets.

Auger-Aliassime currently leads the head-to-head 3-1 but Alcaraz won their last meeting in Indian Wells last year.

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