The advancement scenarios for today are that simple, as Dominic Thiem has already guaranteed his place in the semis with tremendous back-to-back wins over both Djokovic and Federer. For Djokovic, there are also year-end No.1 ranking implications, as he now needs to win this event to keep his hopes alive. And while Matteo Berrettini cannot advance to the semis after going 0-2 thus far, he’ll play to become the first Italian man to ever win a match at the ATP Finals.
Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Matteo Berrettini (8)
This will be their third meeting within the past five weeks. Berrettini prevailed in the Shanghai quarterfinals to reach his first Masters 1,000 semi, while Thiem was victorious at home in Vienna on his way to that title. Their only other previous encounter was last year at Roland Garros, where Dominic won in four. What a week it’s already been for Thiem, but he has a lot of work still ahead of him. And perhaps he is due for a letdown after two sensational wins, especially with his qualification for the semifinals already secured. However, Dominic should feel supremely confident coming off his results earlier this week. And I’m sure his team will warn him of the danger in allowing his level to drop today, even with the result having no impact on his advancement. On the other side of the net, Berrettini has absolutely nothing to lose. Matteo can play freely, and knows he owns a recent win over Thiem. Still, based on his form this week, Dominic should be favored to go 3-0 in the Bjorn Borg Group round robin play.
Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Roger Federer (3)
Four months ago in this same city, Djokovic saved two championship points and went on to defeat Federer in the first-ever 12-all fifth set tiebreak at Wimbledon to win his 16th Major singles title. It was a heartbreaking loss for Federer, who was just one point away from his record-extending 21st Major. Instead, he’s now just four Majors ahead of Djokovic, and only one ahead of Nadal after Rafa’s US Open victory. Overall Djokovic leads this prolific rivalry 26-22. Novak has claimed their last five meetings, dating back to the championship match at this event four years ago. But notably, Roger’s last win was just a few days prior, during the round robin stage of this tournament in 2015. On hard courts, Djokovic leads their head-to-head 19-17. At the ATP Finals, Novak leads 3-2. Djokovic looked extremely agitated at times on Tuesday, seemingly surprised by how vehemently the crowd was rooting for Thiem. But Djokovic will know the London audience to be fully behind Roger today, so I don’t expect that to throw him. Federer will certainly be eager to avenge the Wimbledon defeat from earlier this year, though overcoming Djokovic on this surface is no easy task. I anticipate another tight contest today between these two all-time greats, but give the slight edge to Novak to prevent Roger from advancing to the semifinals for just the second time in 17 appearances at the ATP Finals.
A breakdown of the Djokovic-Federer rivalry
By tournament
Grand Slams: Djokovic leads 10-6
ATP Finals: Djokovic leads 3-2
Masters 1000: Djokovic leads 11-9
ATP 500 events: Federer leads 4-2
Davis Cup: Federer leads 1-0
By year
|
YEAR |
DJOKOVIC |
FEDERER |
|
2006 |
0 |
2 |
|
2007 |
1 |
3 |
|
2008 |
1 |
2 |
|
2009 |
3 |
2 |
|
2010 |
1 |
4 |
|
2011 |
4 |
1 |
|
2012 |
3 |
2 |
|
2013 |
2 |
0 |
|
2014 |
3 |
3 |
|
2015 |
5 |
3 |
|
2016 |
1 |
0 |
|
2017 |
0 |
0 |
|
2018 |
2 |
0 |
|
2019 |
1 |
0 |
| TOTAL |
26 |
22 |
