Ubitennis examines the performances of the most notable players from the second quarter of the season, as well as their prospects heading into Q3.
Simona Halep
Much like Caroline Wozniacki in Q1, Halep finally silenced the doubters and naysayers by winning her first Major in Q2. Will her Roland Garros title satisfy Halep, or will it release the pressure and allow her to play more freely in search of a second Major title? I’m banking on the latter, though the grass courts are Halep’s weakest surface. Although, Simona has reached the quarterfinals or better at The All England Club in three of the last four years, so her Wimbledon chances should not be discounted. Last year in the quarterfinals, she was just one match away from going atop the rankings for the first time, but lost to Britain’s Johanna Konta. The summer hard courts will be a good opportunity for the women’s number one to extend her ranking lead. Halep currently leads by over 1,200 points in the 52-week rankings, and has more than a 1,700 point edge in the year-to-date rankings. Simona should easily gain points at the US Open, following her first round loss last year to Maria Sharapova. With bitter defeats in her mind from last year’s Wimbledon and US Open, Q3 may see Halep conquer some more demons from her past.
Petra Kvitova
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Sitting right behind Halep in the year-to-date rankings is Kvitova, who leads the tour with five titles in 2018, three of which came in Q2. Petra won back-to-back titles for the second time this year by taking the trophies in Prague and Madrid. Her French Open performance was a bit disappointing, going down in the third round to Anett Kontaveit. But Kvitova bounced right back on the grass, as she usually does, by winning her fifth title of the year in Birmingham. This past week, she withdrew from Eastbourne due to a hamstring injury. Getting some rest heading into Wimbledon is a smart move by Petra, and I consider her the favorite to win her third Wimbledon title as long as she’s healthy. While the North American hard court swing has never been her strongest time of the season, she’s now made the quarters at the US Open in two of the last three years. Kvitova has never been higher than two in the world, but she has a shot at catching Halep if she can sustain her Q1 and Q2 success through the rest of the year.
Sloane Stephens
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Stephens was just 4-4 during the WTA clay court season heading into Roland Garros, yet she solidified herself as a top contender at the Majors by making her second Major final in Paris. She was up a set and break, but ran out of steam and was unable to close out Halep in the final. That was actually the first tournament final Stephens has lost on tour. Stephens did not play a grass court warm-up event, so I’m curious to see if she can carry her momentum into Wimbledon. She did make the quarters there in 2013. Looking ahead, the summer hard court season will bring with it a lot of pressure for Sloane. She’ll have 2,700 points to defend from her semifinal appearances in Toronto and Cincinnati, and of course her US Open title. It will be extremely challenging for Stephens to back up those results, and her ranking will likely fall from her current career-high spot at number four in the world.
Caroline Wozniacki
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Caroline had a predictable letdown following her maiden Major title in Melbourne, and didn’t make another tournament final until just this weekend, when she won her second title on the grass of Eastbourne. That confidence boost was much needed, especially considering Wimbledon is the only Major where Wozniacki has not been farther than the fourth round. The US Open will likely be the next Major where she has a legitimate shot at the title: Caroline is a two-time finalist in New York. The current world number two is 2,000 points behind Halep in the year-to-date rankings, so she’ll need a big Q3 if she wants to make a run at regaining the top ranking, which she held for a few weeks in Q1.
Garbine Muguruza
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After a slow Q1, Muguruza won the title in Monterrey during the first week of Q2. That victory did not translate into further success on the European clay until the French Open. Muguruza had her swagger back in Paris, and appeared prone to take her second Roland Garros title, until she was thwarted by eventual champion Simona Halep in the semifinals. Garbine is the defending Wimbledon champion, but did not get off to a good start on the grass. She was defeated in her second match at Birmingham by Barbora Strycova. While no player goes from cold to hot (and back) as often as Muguruza, she’s yet to successfully defend a title in her career, and has never won two titles at the same event. Garbine’s also never looked fully comfortable playing in New York: her fourth round appearance there last year was her best-to-date, and she’s only 5-5 lifetime at the US Open. With almost 4,000 points to defend in Q3, the current world number three will likely see her ranking slide considerably in the coming months.
Madison Keys
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Keys started off Q2 with a nice run to the semis in Charleston, but proceeded to lose in her opening round of both Stuttgart and Madrid. After winning her first two matches in Rome, she had to withdraw from her round of 16 match against Simona Halep due to a rib injury. So it was pretty surprising when she won ten straight sets to reach her first semifinal at Roland Garros, falling to fellow American Sloane Stephens in a rematch of last year’ US Open final. Madison then withdrew from Birmingham due to the same injury that forced her out of Rome. If Keys is healthy, she could be a legitimate threat at Wimbledon. Her game is perfectly suited for grass, and she reached the quarterfinals at SW19 three years ago. Unfortunately, her Q3 results will likely be dictated by her health, and it’s fair at this point to declare Keys as being injury-prone. Let’s hope she can get healthy in time to defend her run to the final last year in New York. I’d like to see how she’d perform there following last year’s career highlight which ended with a disappointing performance in the final.
Eilina Svitolina
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I could basically copy and paste what I wrote about Svitolina in Q1, and the quarter before that, and the quarter before that. She continues to keep herself in the top five with tournament victories outside the Majors, like her Q2 win in Rome. That was her third title of 2018, and the second year in a row she won the Italy’s Premier 5 event. Yet in Paris, she went out meekly in the third round to Mihaela Buzarnescu. She then lost again to Buzarnescu on the grass of Birmingham. I don’t like Svitolina’s chances at Wimbledon, where she’s just 5-5 in her career. She’ll look to defend another title at the Rogers Cup in August, but I’m much more interested to see when Elina can finally advance passed the quarterfinals at a Major. It seems only a matter of time, though it’s already taken longer than I expected.
Maria Sharapova
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Sharapova finally found some consistency and regained some momentum in Q2. In Madrid, Rome, and Paris, she picked up ten match wins. This run was highlighted her over three-hour quarterfinal battle against Jelena Ostapenko. After crushing Karolina Pliskova at Roland Garros 6-2, 6-1, she was subsequently crushed by Muguruza in the quarterfinals by the same scoreline. This will be Sharapova’s first appearance at Wimbledon in three years, when she reached the semifinals at The Championships. I’m sure she’ll be determined to prove she can still be a factor at the year’s most prestigious Major. But it may be the summer hard courts where Sharapova really shines. As her ranking continues to rise, she’ll of course receive more favorable draws. Q2 was the longest stretch in several years that Maria has looked healthy and confident, and she’ll be a force in Q3 if that continues. With less than 500 points to defend between July and September, look for Sharapova to make a big jump up the rankings.
