Through four days of play, the ladies’ draw has already lost five of the top six seeds (and six of the top eight). On Thursday, Garbine Muguruza was the latest top seed to fall, as did 2017 Wimbledon Semifinalist Johanna Konta. In the gentlemen’s draw, Day 4 brought us the biggest upset to date. Marin Cilic, the third seed and 2017 finalist, lost to the 82nd-ranked player in the world, who had never won a match at SW19 prior to this week. Stan Wawrinka also went down in defeat on Thursday. Four of the top 10 male seeds have gone out, and a fifth may be on his way. Sascha Zverev is down two-sets-to-one to Taylor Fritz, in a match to be continued on Friday. Overall, 30 of the 64 singles seeds did not survive the first four days of The Championships. What will happen next?
Serena Williams vs. Kristina Mladenovic
Following the first round exit of pre-tournament favorite Petra Kvitova, the oddsmakers declared Serena Williams as the new favorite to win her eighth Wimbledon title. Considering this will only be her tenth singles match on tour in eighteen months, is that premature? Honestly, no. While she came into the fortnight with such little match play, and less than 100% healthy, no one has stepped up in her absence to dominate the tour (exhibit A: so many top seeds losing in the first two rounds). And we’ve seen Serena win majors while at less than her best before, or even while pregnant. Mladenovic though is a step up in competition for the 23-time Major singles champion. Last year, the Frenchwoman was ranked inside the top 10, in a season highlighted by her run to the quarterfinals at her home Major. She also had victories in 2017 over Halep, Wozniacki, Kerber, and Muguruza. But then she suffered a knee injury last year at Wimbledon, and it was all downhill from there. She went on a stunning 15-match losing streak. She’s now ranked 62nd in the world, though perhaps she’s ready to come out of her funk now that she’s barely defending any points for the rest of the season. And even though the singles results have subsided, she’s remained successful in doubles. Mladenovic won the women’s doubles title at the Australian Open, and won her second doubles title of the year just two weeks ago on the grass of Birmingham. They’ve only played once, with Serena defeating Kristina at the 2016 French Open. Serena should get through this one, but don’t sleep on Mladenovic – she can be dangerous.
Venus Williams vs. Kiki Bertens
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Here’s another case of a Williams sister facing a tough third round opponent. They just played for the first time a few months ago, with Venus avoiding the upset in Miami 7-5 in the third. Venus has struggled mightily this year, while Bertens’ stock continues to rise. Venus lost in the opening round at both of the first two Majors of 2018, and came into Wimbledon with only 10 wins on the year. If she’s going to turn her year around at any tournament, it’ll most likely happen here for the five-time Wimbledon champion and 2017 finalist. Bertens arrived at SW19 with twice as many wins as Venus in 2018. Kiki has become a bit of a clay court specialist since reaching the 2016 Roland Garros semifinals. 15 of her 22 wins this year have come on clay, including winning the title in Charleston and making the final in Madrid. However, she’s just 1-2 on grass this year, and has never been farther than this stage of The Championships. Still, Venus can ill afford to have an off day against a player with so many wins over the past few months.
Sam Querrey vs. Gael Monfils
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This match will open Thursday’s play on Centre Court. Querrey has won 11 of his last 13 singles matches at The All England Club. In 2016, his shocking upset of Novak Djokovic began Novak’s tailspin, which he’s still battling to recover from. Last year, he took out the visibly-hampered top seed and home favorite, Andy Murray, on Centre Court. Querrey is 0-2 lifetime against Monfils, but they’ve never met on grass, a surface which should heavily favor the American. Also working in Sam’s favor? Gael is 0-6 in third round matches at Wimbledon. He’ll need to scramble around every blade of grass and extend the rallies to challenge the big-hitting Querrey. If Monfils can remain motivated throughout the match, the contrast in styles could make for a great contest. Regardless, I like Sam’s chances to advance to the second week of The Championships for the third straight year.
Karolina Pliskova vs. Mihaela Buzarnescu
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Buzarnescu has been one of the hottest players on tour in 2018. She started the year playing in the minor leagues of the sport, but 19 wins over the past three months has landed her the 29th seed here. Her recent run started in Prague, where she advanced to the final. Mihaela then made the round of 16 at the French Open, and collected a total of seven wins at grass court lead-up events. Her opponent today openly admits to feeling uncomfortable on the lawns of The All England Club. On Wednesday however, Pliskova broke a streak of five-straight second round losses at Wimbledon by ousting Victoria Azarenka in impressive fashion, her first win on Centre Court. Their only previous meeting happened on grass and went to Karolina, though that was over six years ago. I think Pliskova can make a run in the ladies’ draw if she can get some momentum and get passed this confident opposition.
Julia Goerges vs. Barbora Strycova
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Head-to-head records are rarely this tight when players have met this many times, with each of these veterans winning five of the ten times they’ve played. Surprisingly, this will be their first match on grass. Between the end of 2017 and the start of this year, Georges went on a 15-match winning streak. This included titles at Moscow, the WTA Elite Trophy event, and Auckland. However, she’s yet to transfer that success to a Major. She’s never been farther than the fourth round at any Grand Slam event, and lost in the first round of Wimbledon in five straight years prior to this week. Strycova has played much better at SW19, making the quarter-finals back in 2014. Going into this year’s French Open, Barbora was on an eight-match losing streak, making her fourth round appearance at Roland Garros on her weakest surface all the more surprising. She followed that up with a semifinal on the grass of Birmingham, where she upset Muguruza. Based on recent form, as well as past Wimbledon success, Strycova should have the edge here.
Order of play
CENTRE COURT – SHOW COURT – 13:00 START
1 Sam Querrey (USA) [11] 17 vs Gael Monfils (FRA) 23
2 Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) 100 vs Serena Williams (USA) [25] 104
3 Roger Federer (SUI) [1] 1 vs Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) 7
No.1 COURT – SHOW COURT – 13:00 START
1 Taylor Fritz (USA) 94 vs Alexander Zverev (GER) [4] 96 T/F 4/6 7/5 7/6(0) 0/0
2 Kiki Bertens (NED) [20] 73 vs Venus Williams (USA) [9] 80
3 Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [7] 65 vs Mihaela Buzarnescu (ROU) [29] 72
4 Dennis Novak (AUT) 44 vs Milos Raonic (CAN) [13] 48
No.2 COURT – SHOW COURT – 11:30 START
1 Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) [25] 25 vs Kevin Anderson (RSA) [8] 32
2 Julia Goerges (GER) [13] 81 vs Barbora Strycova (CZE) [23] 88
3 John Isner (USA) [9] 49 vs Radu Albot (MDA) 55
No.3 COURT – SHOW COURT – 11:30 START
1 Evgeniya Rodina (RUS) 107 vs Madison Keys (USA) [10] 112
2 Yanina Wickmayer (BEL) 92 vs Donna Vekic (CRO) 95
3 Adrian Mannarino (FRA) [22] 9 vs Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 15
4 Neal Skupski (GBR) / Naomi Broady (GBR) 27 vs Joe Salisbury (GBR) / Katy Dunne (GBR) 28
COURT 12 – SHOW COURT – 11:30 START
1 Lucie Safarova (CZE) 124 vs Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) 126
2 Paolo Lorenzi (ITA) / Albert Ramos-Vinolas (ESP) 15 vs Jamie Murray (GBR) / Bruno Soares (BRA) [5] 16
3 Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [31] 57 vs Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 62
COURT 18 – SHOW COURT – 11:30 START
1 Katerina Siniakova (CZE) 114 vs Camila Giorgi (ITA) 119
2 Oliver Marach (AUT) / Mate Pavic (CRO) [1] 1 vs Federico Delbonis (ARG) / Miguel Angel Reyes-Varela (MEX) 2
3 Guido Pella (ARG) 36 vs Mackenzie McDonald (USA) 38
COURT 5 – 11:30 START
1 Kevin Krawietz (GER) / Andreas Mies (GER) 54 vs Pablo Cuevas (URU) / Marcel Granollers (ESP) [11] 56
2 Veronika Kudermetova (RUS) / Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 21 vs Lucie Hradecka (CZE) / Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE) [14] 24
COURT 6 – 13:00 START
1 Fabrice Martin (FRA) / Raluca Olaru (ROU) 35 vs Thanasi Kokkinakis (AUS) / Ashleigh Barty (AUS) 36
2 Irina Bara (ROU) / Alize Cornet (FRA) 47 vs Andreja Klepac (SLO) / Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (ESP) [4] 48 T/F 5/7 7/6(3) 0/0
3 Andrei Vasilevski (BLR) / Anastasia Rodionova (AUS) 37 vs Luke Bambridge (GBR) / Katie Boulter (GBR) 38
4 Antonio Sancic (CRO) / Petra Martic (CRO) 3 vs Artem Sitak (NZL) / Lyudmyla Kichenok (UKR) 4
COURT 7 – 13:00 START
1 Rohan Bopanna (IND) / Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) [12] 25 vs Frederik Nielsen (DEN) / Joe Salisbury (GBR) 28
2 Jamie Cerretani (USA) / Renata Voracova (CZE) 19 vs John-Patrick Smith (AUS) / Daria Gavrilova (AUS) 20
3 Mike Bryan (USA) / Bethanie Mattek-Sands (USA) 21 vs Philipp Oswald (AUT) / Xenia Knoll (SUI) 22
COURT 8 – 11:30 START
1 Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi (PAK) / Jean-Julien Rojer (NED) [9] 9 vs Ken Skupski (GBR) / Neal Skupski (GBR) 11
2 Xinyun Han (CHN) / Luksika Kumkhum (THA) 54 vs Vania King (USA) / Katarina Srebotnik (SLO) [17] 56
3 Nicholas Monroe (USA) / Oksana Kalashnikova (GEO) 53 vs Ken Skupski (GBR) / Anna Smith (GBR) 54
COURT 10 – 11:30 START
1 Roman Jebavy (CZE) / Andres Molteni (ARG) 30 vs Juan Sebastian Cabal (COL) / Robert Farah (COL) [6] 32
2 Sofia Kenin (USA) / Sachia Vickery (USA) 5 vs Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) / Monica Niculescu (ROU) [13] 8
3 Christina McHale (USA) / Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) 29 vs Hao-Ching Chan (TPE) / Zhaoxuan Yang (CHN) [7] 32
COURT 14 – 11:30 START
1 Mike Bryan (USA) / Jack Sock (USA) [7] 49 vs Sander Arends (NED) / Matwe Middelkoop (NED) 51
2 Jay Clarke (GBR) / Cameron Norrie (GBR) 5 vs Marcelo Arevalo (ESA) / Hans Podlipnik-Castillo (CHI) 6 T/F 4/6 7/6(5) 7/5 3/4
3 Raquel Atawo (USA) / Anna-Lena Groenefeld (GER) [11] 25 vs Tatjana Maria (GER) / Heather Watson (GBR) 28
4 John Peers (AUS) / Shuai Zhang (CHN) 61 vs Hans Podlipnik-Castillo (CHI) / Lidziya Marozava (BLR) 62
5 Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi (PAK) / Arantxa Parra Santonja (ESP) 45 vs Andres Molteni (ARG) / Makoto Ninomiya (JPN) 46
COURT 15 – 11:30 START
1 Mandy Minella (LUX) / Anastasija Sevastova (LAT) 37 vs Georgina Garcia Perez (ESP) / Fanny Stollar (HUN) 38
2 Dominic Inglot (GBR) / Franko Skugor (CRO) [15] 41 vs Marcelo Demoliner (BRA) / Santiago Gonzalez (MEX) 44
3 Nikola Mektic (CRO) / Alexander Peya (AUT) [8] 33 vs Mirza Basic (BIH) / Dusan Lajovic (SRB) 35
COURT 16 – 11:30 START
1 Antonio Sancic (CRO) / Andrei Vasilevski (BLR) 38 vs Robin Haase (NED) / Robert Lindstedt (SWE) 39
2 Gabriela Dabrowski (CAN) / Yifan Xu (CHN) [6] 49 vs Shuko Aoyama (JPN) / Jennifer Brady (USA) 51
3 Alicja Rosolska (POL) / Abigail Spears (USA) 14 vs Latisha Chan (TPE) / Shuai Peng (CHN) [5] 16
4 Hugo Nys (FRA) / Shuko Aoyama (JPN) 11 vs Marcus Daniell (NZL) / Nadiia Kichenok (UKR) 12
5 Marcin Matkowski (POL) / Mihaela Buzarnescu (ROU) 43 vs Divij Sharan (IND) / Alicja Rosolska (POL) 44
COURT 17 – 13:00 START
1 Jonathan Erlich (ISR) / Marcin Matkowski (POL) 61 vs Lukasz Kubot (POL) / Marcelo Melo (BRA) [2] 64
2 Elise Mertens (BEL) / Demi Schuurs (NED) [8] 33 vs Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) / Vera Zvonareva (RUS) 35
3 Robin Haase (NED) / Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) 13 vs Franko Skugor (CRO) / Vania King (USA) 14
4 Santiago Gonzalez (MEX) / Raquel Atawo (USA) 51 vs Nicolas Mahut (FRA) / Elina Svitolina (UKR) 52
MATCHES TO BE ARRANGED
NOT BEFORE 17.00
1 Jack Sock (USA) / Sloane Stephens (USA) 59 vs Dominic Inglot (GBR) / Samantha Stosur (AUS) 60
2 Robert Lindstedt (SWE) / Zhaoxuan Yang (CHN) 5 vs Jay Clarke (GBR) / Harriet Dart (GBR) 6
3 Wesley Koolhof (NED) / Elise Mertens (BEL) 29 vs Jamie Murray (GBR) / Victoria Azarenka (BLR) 3