Rafael Nadal is 9-0 in French Open finals, while Stan Wawrinka is 3-0 in major finals. One of those streaks must give on Sunday.
Rafael Nadal is going for “la decima,” his record-extending tenth title at Roland Garros. Nadal’s clay domination over the past thirteen years is unprecedented for any player on any surface in the men’s game. After two sub-par clay seasons by Nadal’s unparalleled high standards, he has returned to top form in 2017. Rafa already won his tenth title at two other tournaments earlier this year: in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. This was after narrowly losing to Roger Federer in an epic Australian Open final. In fact if not for Federer, who also defeated Nadal in Indian Wells and Miami, Nadal may have won all three of those tournaments. Even with those losses, Nadal has a significant lead in the year-to-date rankings. Over the past two weeks in Paris, he has not dropped a set and only lost twenty nine games through six matches (the least amount of games he has ever dropped heading into the French Open final). He dismantled Dominic Thiem in the semifinals on Friday, and Thiem has been the second best clay court player this season. Nadal seems unstoppable.
Stan Wawrinka is coming off the match of the tournament, taking out world #1 Andy Murray in a semifinal that went over four and a half hours. That match must have taken a lot out of Stan, who will come into the final with only one day’s rest and having spent over 50% more time on court than Nadal on the way to the final. Wawrinka is a big match player, and has defeated world #1’s in all of his three previous major finals, but this will be his tallest task yet. Wawrinka will need to be at his best to have a chance of upsetting Nadal on his quest for his tenth French Open on Sunday. If Stan is on, he does have the ability to outhit Rafa and determine the outcome. If anyone knows what it takes to beat Nadal, it is Wawrinka’s coach, Magnus Norman. He was the man to coach Robin Soderling to victory over Nadal at Roland Garros in 2009. Another man who could offer Stan some advice on how to defeat Rafa would be Stan’s compatriot Roger Federer. Much like Wawrinka in this match, Federer was not favored to overcome Nadal in Melbourne. Stan would be smart to consult Roger and take a few cues from his game plan.
Head-to-head, Nadal is 15-3 against Wawrinka. However, they are 3-3 in their last six meetings. One of those three Nadal losses came in their only other major final, the 2014 Australian Open. While Wawrinka played very well on that occasion, Nadal notably suffered a back injury during the second set. Stan does have a win over Rafa on clay, which occurred at the 2015 Rome Masters. The third victory happened to be in Paris, but on an indoor hard court at the 2015 Paris Masters. Wawrinka will draw some confidence from those matches, but Nadal is a different player in 2017 than he was in 2015.
It’s hard to imagine Nadal losing in the French Open final. That being said, in a best of five sets major final on clay, no player in the world today has a better shot of pulling off the upset than Stan Wawrinka. The Swiss #1 has made a Hall of Fame career out of quietly making his way through draws and upsetting tennis greats. Wawrinka will need to stay competitive with Nadal from the start: he cannot afford to allow Rafa to build a quick lead. If Stan is able to put pressure on Nadal and extend the match to four or five sets, it will be interesting to see how Rafa responds. Let’s not forget Nadal has suffered some epic losses at majors in recent years, most notably the Australian final against Federer. The winner of this match will also become #2 in the world, which will be important for seeding at Wimbledon. While Nadal is the favorite to prevail in Paris, the stage is set for a captivating final on Sunday.
