2022 was a trying year for Aryna Sabalenka. She completely lost her form on her second serve, striking double-digit double faults in many of her matches. And in her third Major semifinal within a 14-month period, she again lost in heartbreaking fashion, by a score of 6-4 in the third for the third straight time. Many athletes never recover from such issues and scar tissue. But in just the first month of 2023, and after working with a biomechanics specialist to fix her serve, a calmer, more confident Sabalenka has achieved her first Major singles final.
2022 was a milestone year for Elena Rybakina. Six months ago, the 23-year-old had only won two WTA titles at smaller events, and reached one Major quarterfinal. Then she surprised the tennis world by winning Wimbledon this past July. However, she was granted no ranking points due to the controversial backlash to Wimbledon’s ban of Russian and Belarussian athletes. And in the ensuing months, Elena was often banished to outer courts at bigger events, including this one, with court assignments unbefitting of a reigning Wimbledon champion. Rybakina used all of this as motivation, and has achieved her second Major final just six months after her first.
Also on Saturday, the men’s doubles champions will be crowned. Will an Aussie team triumph for a second year in a row? Wild cards Rinky Hijikata and Jason Kubler will face Hugo Nys and Jan Zielinski, in a first Major final for both of these partnerships.
Elena Rybakina (22) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (5) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Sabalenka is a perfect 10-0 in 2023, and 20-0 in sets. This is the fourth time out of the last six Majors she has advanced to the semifinals or better, and she already owns two Slam titles in women’s doubles with Elise Mertens. Regardless of Saturday’s result, Aryna will reach a new career-high of No.2 on Monday.
Rybakina had lost five of her last eight matches heading into this fortnight, but has found her form as the event has progressed. She has dropped only one set through six matches, to last year’s runner-up Danielle Collins. Elena will debut inside the top 10 on Monday, as high as No.8 if she wins this final. And she would be solidly inside the top five with her points from Wimbledon.
Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 3-0, though all three matches have gone three sets. In fact in all three, Sabalenka won the first and third sets, while Rybakina won the second. They’ve played four years ago in Wuhan, two years ago in Abu Dhabi, and two years ago at Wimbledon.
Aryna’s vastly-improved serve and demeanor have been crucial in advancing her to her first Major singles final. But can she avoid double faulting, and remain calm, in what is the biggest match of her career?
No player’s serve has been more effective during this tournament than Rybakina’s. As per Tumaini Carayol on Twitter, more than 50% of Elena’s serves have gone unreturned, which results in a lot of easy points. And no player remains more calm on court than Rybakina, despite the berating comments her coach may share during the match.
I expect Elena’s experience winning Wimbledon six months ago to prove extremely valuable on Saturday, and slightly favor Rybakina to win her second Major.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.