Saturday hosts the championship matches in women’s singles and men’s doubles.
Two months ago in the Wimbledon semifinals, Amanda Anisimova upset Aryna Sabalenka to reach her first Major final. That brought the American’s record against Sabalenka to an impressive 6-3 lifetime. Can the American repeat that feat, and win her first Major on Saturday? Or will the World No.1 overcome the three cases of Major diappointment she’s suffered this season to defend her title?
Day 14 starts with the men’s doubles championship match 12:00pm local time: Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (5) vs. Joe Salisbury and Neal Skupski (6). Granollers and Zeballos have survived three consecutive three-setters to reach this final. They won Roland Garros earlier this year, but are 0-3 in their other Major finals, including six years ago at this same event. Salisbury and Skupski also required three sets in three different rounds of this fortnight. This is their fifth final of the season, but they are 0-4 in those finals, which includes a loss to Granollers and Zeballos in the championship match at Roland Garros.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Amanda Anisimova – Not Before 4:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Their 10th match overall will only be their fourth on a hard court, with Anisimova leading 2-1 on this surface. At Majors, she leads 3-2. Two of Sabalenka’s three victories have come on clay, while the other occurred at last year’s Australian Open.
In their Wimbledon semifinal less than two months ago, it was Anisimova’s returning that was the difference. Sabalenka was only able to win 44% of her second serve points, while Anisimova won 60%. We saw Amanda attack Naomi Osaka’s with her return in a similar way during Thursday semifinal, a grueling three-set match that went well past midnight local time. Aryna’s also played a draining three-set semifinal, against Jessica Pegula, but that ended several hours earlier, leaving Sabalenka with a bit more recovery time.
In the Wimbledon final, Anisimova was unable to recover from her semifinal against Sabalenka, and got double-bageled by Swiatek. It was a heartbreaking match for Amanda, and it will certainly weigh heavy on her mind during her second Major final on Saturday. However, Anisimova already exercised some of those demons by upsetting Swiatek in Wednesday’s quarterfinals.
Amanda’s formidable serve and backhand have been well-documented, but in the last two rounds against Swiatek and Osaka, I was actually most impressed the American’s forehand, especially on her return. Much like when Sabalenka faced Anisimova at Wimbledon, Osaka only won 33% of her second serve points, as Anisimova was ultra-aggressive in attacking Osaka’s second serve.
And Sabalenka has plenty of her own Major losses from this season that will be weighing on her mind. In addition to the Anismova upset, Aryna was uspet by Madison Keys in the Australian Open final, a match I’m not sure she’s fully recovered from emotionally. And a loss to Coco Gauff in the Roland Garros final only compounded Sabalenka’s doubts. She’s now 3-3 in Major finals.
While the set Sabalenka lost to Pegula in the semifinals is the only one she’s lost this fortnight, she hasn’t seemed to find her best tennis during this event. A walkover in the quarterfinals from an injured Marketa Vondrousova may have actually hurt Aryna’s level, as she’s tried to play herself into form. After the Wimbledon loss, she skipped the WTA 1000 tournament in Montreal, and was thumped in the Cincinnati quarterfinals by Elena Rybakina.
Sabalenka feels vulnerable to another loss in a big match, and this matchup historically just has not been in her favor. Both players can get pretty down on themselves when they make errors, so the player who better holds their nerve under pressure will likely win this title. The more confident performer at this moment seems to be Anisimova, so I’m picking her to achieve her first Major title on Saturday.
