Friday hosts the men’s singles semifinals, as well as the championship match in women’s doubles.
We are one round away from a third consecutive Major final between the two best players in the world: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. But both must first advance beyond Friday’s semifinals.
This past January in the Australian Open quarterfinals, Novak Djokovic was able to turn back the clock and upset Alcaraz in four sets. Eight months later, Alcaraz feels like an even bigger favorite against Djokovic. But can the all-time great again muster up some more of the magic of yesteryear, and reach his first Major final in over a year?
In the other semifinal, Jannik Sinner is an even bigger favorite against Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is appearing in just his second Major semifinal. Is there anything Felix can do to pose a real threat to Jannik on Friday night?
Day 13 starts with the women’s doubles championship match: Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (1) vs. Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe (3). Siniakova and Townsend are yet to drop a set, as they vie for their third Major title out of the last six. Dabrowski and Routliffe came back from a set down twice this fortnight, as they play for their second US Open out of the last three. This is a rematch from the championship match of last year’s WTA Finals, which Dabrowski and Routliffe won in straight sets.
Novak Djokovic (7) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Not Before 3:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Eight months ago in Melbourne, Djokovic overcame a left leg injury, which hobbled him early in the match, to come from behind and defeat Alcaraz. Carlitos appeared confused as to how to play against an injured Novak, allowing his own level to drop significantly. And that victory came just five months after another big Djokovic win over Alcaraz, which was perhaps the most special of Novak’s career, and was certainly the most devastating in the young career of Carlitos. That was of course the gold medal match at the Paris Olympic, which Djokovic won in two tiebreak-sets.
A summer before that, these men contested a pair of epic encounters, within the span of just six weeks. In the 2023 championship match of Wimbledon, Alcaraz dethroned Djokovic in five sets. The next month in the final of Cincinnati, Novak saved a match point to eventually prevail in a third-set tiebreak, after nearly four hours of play. And even the very first match in this rivalry was spectacular: in May of 2022, on the clay of Madrid, it was Alcaraz defeating Djokovic, in another match decided by a third-set tiebreak.
Overall Djokovic leads their head-to-head 5-3, and he owns a definitive 3-0 edge on hard courts. So beyond his age, why does a now-38-year-old Novak feel like such an underdog? Because he’s been battling multiple physical ailments not just during this fortnight, but throughout this season, with he himself publicly questioning if he’s fit enough to keep up with Carlitos. And Djokovic is 0-3 Major semifinals this season, having retired after a set in Melbourne, and losing in straights to Sinner in both Paris and London.
Plus, Alcaraz comes into this match fresher and more confident than ever. For the first time in his career, Carlitos has not dropped a set through his first five rounds at a Major. And since May, he’s gone 35-1, with the only loss coming against Sinner in the Wimbledon final. The bad haircut his brother gave him is the only glaring Alcaraz unforced error of this fortnight.
Djokovic yearns to prove that he can still compete for Major titles, which in the 2025 men’s game means competing with Sinner and Alcaraz. If Novak can serve well and get out to an early lead, that could apply considerable pressure upon Carlitos, who will no doubt start thinking about his previous tough losses to Novak on this surface. But I also expect Alcaraz to learn from the mistakes he made against Djokovic in Melbourne, and to be eager to gain some level of revenge, which the Spaniard even eluded to in the days leading up to this matchup. Alcaraz should be favored to achieve his third consecutive Major final, and his first in New York since he won this title three years ago.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (25) – Not Before 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
To have any chance in this match, Auger-Aliassime needs to deploy a similar strategy to what Djokovic needs to do earlier in the day: serve big, gain an early lead, and apply some pressure to the World No.1. Because when Sinner has built an early lead during this event, he has steamrolled the competition. Outside of his third round hiccup against Denis Shapovalov, Jannik’s opponents have averaged less than two games per set against him.
And that’s just how dominant Sinner has become against anyone not named Carlos Alcaraz, especially on this surface. The Italian has won 47 of his last 49 hard courts matches, with the only two losses coming at the hands of Alcaraz. He’s claimed the last three hard court Majors, as well as his last four Major semifinals across all surfaces.
Auger-Aliassime’s only previous Major semifinal occurred four years ago at this same tournament, when he went down in straights against eventual champion Daniil Medvedev. Earlier in this event, Felix played two of the best matches of his career, in upsetting both Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev. But against Alex de Minaur in the last round, the Canadian played some extremely nervous tennis, in a long match that was frankly a tough watch.
After winning well over 50% of his second serve points against Zverev and Rublev, Auger-Aliassime only managed 32% against de Minaur. He will have to up that percentage drastically against a player the caliber of Sinner, who returns so well, and is also so hard to break.
Felix can draw some confidence in his 2-1 record against Jannik, though those two victories came back in 2022. Just a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, Sinner crushed Auger-Aliassime 6-0, 6-2. There’s just not much in this matchup that suggests anything but Sinner advancing to Sunday’s championship match.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
