The lights are about to turn back on in Queens, and the storylines are already humming.
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will head across the Atlantic as tennis’ two biggest stars, currently locked on a collision course unlike the ones seen since the ‘Big Four’ of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray were in their pomp. Now, the world is poised and ready for Act Three in their 2025 epic.
The two have faced off in each of the last two Grand Slam finals. Back at Roland Garros, Alcaraz rallied to overturn a two-set lead and save three match points to secure a thrilling victory. At Wimbledon, Sinner overturned his own one-set disadvantage to reign supreme at the All-England Club for the first time, securing his first Slam title away from hard courts in the process. Now, online sports betting websites make the Spaniard and the Italian heavy favorites for a third straight face-off.
Websites offering online sports betting in Canada currently have Sinner listed as the -120 favorite, and considering the fact he has won the last three hard-court Slams, including last year’s US Open, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. Then comes Alcaraz, priced as the +225 second favorite and seen as the greatest threat to the Italian’s throne. As such, both are expected to face off in the final at Arthur Ashes Stadium at the end of September, but what if a spanner gets thrown into the works?
Over the years, there have been a number of shockers that shook the Big Apple to its very core. Here are the biggest upsets in US Open history.
Botic van de Zandschulp def. Carlos Alcaraz – 2024
Carlos Alcaraz arrived at Flushing Meadows last year as the 2022 champion and fresh off a French Open–Wimbledon double, the No. 3 seed with swagger to spare. Across the net stood World No. 74 Botic van de Zandschulp, a player who, earlier that season, had considered walking away from the court altogether. Under Ashe’s lights, the Dutchman played with nothing to lose, and he duly ripped up the script.
The tone was set in 28 minutes: A stunning 6-1 first set, van de Zandschulp winning north of 70% on first serve and saving all break points in the opener. He converted the pressure moments later in sets two and three, while Alcaraz’s forehand misfired at key junctures. The stat that frames the night: straight sets against a multi-Slam champion at the peak of his powers. A one-off? Alcaraz will certainly be hoping so.
Alexei Popyrin def. Novak Djokovic – 2024
Alcaraz wasn’t the only big name to be sent packing early last year. Novak Djokovic arrived as the defending champion, fresh off Olympic gold, pursuing Slam No. 25. Alexei Popyrin, the No. 28 seed, arrived with a plan. He served big, attacked early, and used the serve-and-volley as a pressure release valve—going 10-for-10 on such plays, a perfect read of Nole’s deep return position. He finished with 50 winners and targeted short forehand approaches to force passing-shot patterns.
The other side of the ledger mattered too: Djokovic hit 14 double faults and never found his reliable serve under the roof. When the fourth set hung at 2-2, Popyrin won a 22-ball exchange with an inside-out forehand to secure the decisive break. He didn’t blink again. Even legends are human when their biggest weapon goes missing. Popyrin made sure it stayed missing.
Juan Martín del Potro def. Roger Federer – 2009
Roger Federer had won five consecutive titles in the Big Apple back in 2009 and led head-to-heads against Juan Martin del Potro 6-0. The 20-year-old Argentinian sixth seed arrived with a sledgehammer forehand and a quiet conviction. The match hinged on two knife-edge tiebreaks. In both, del Potro took the ball earlier and heavier, repeatedly cracking forehands over 100 mph through Federer’s backhand corner. When the Argentine dragged it to a fifth, his power advantage took over. He closed with 37 forehand winners and a decisive 6-2 finish.
What made it an upset for the ages wasn’t only the scoreline. It was the context—halting Federer’s six-peat bid—and the method. Del Potro didn’t sneak through; he overpowered the era’s greatest front-runner and detonated the door to his first and only Slam. How many finals directly rewire belief across the field? This was one of them.
Roberta Vinci def. Serena Williams – 2015
Serena Williams’ calendar-year Slam chase a decade ago—the first since Steffi Graf in 1988—seemed inevitable. She had the No. 1 ranking, three majors already in her pocket, and a perfect record in Slams that season heading into the US Open semifinal. Vinci, ranked No. 43 and in her first major singles semi, brought a different geometry: low, skidding slices, short angles, disrupted rhythm.
After Serena blitzed the first set in 30 minutes, Vinci pivoted. She dragged exchanges forward, took pace off to invite errors, and picked off key service games late in sets two and three. The raw figures tell part of the story—Vinci won 42% of total points yet stole the only breaks she needed down the stretch. The rest is feel: guts on the big points, composure under the loudest lights, and an on-court interview that captured the astonishment of the moment. Many call it the greatest upset in Open history. It ended a bid for immortality in real time.
